{"id":65787,"date":"2026-08-31T03:29:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T03:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65787"},"modified":"2026-08-31T06:14:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T06:14:57","slug":"warsh-hawkish-but-wont-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/31\/warsh-hawkish-but-wont-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Warsh Hawkish But Won&#8217;t Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#8217;s keynote speech at Jackson Hole had a distinct hawkish tone.<\/li>\n<li>Financial markets responded with a sharp jump in the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.36%.<\/li>\n<li>However, Warsh&#8217;s hands are tied by political considerations, and no rate hike is likely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>We are convinced that the FOMC will not hike rates at its September meeting despite the Fed Chair&#8217;s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 28.<\/p>\n<p>The new Fed Chair set a hawkish tone in his keynote address to the Fed&#8217;s Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, \u200cwe have work to do. That&#8217;s our job &#8230; our mandate &#8230; and our charge to keep,&#8221; Warsh said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.&#8221;The Fed&#8217;s predominant focus right now should be on prices.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The 2-year Treasury yield jumped by 9 basis points within 20 minutes of Warsh&#8217;s speech and ended Friday up 13 basis points at 4.36%, more than 60 basis points above the Fed&#8217;s current target range of 3.5-3.75%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-28-us2y.png?resize=525%2C332&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"332\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, Warsh is unlikely to support a rate hike before the November midterms because of the political implications.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh has strong Republican credentials, having served in President George W. Bush&#8217;s White House and as the youngest board member in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s history. He has also spoken about the importance of free trade, the Fed&#8217;s political independence, and a strong Dollar \u2014 views that could lead to conflict with the current President. However, he has close links with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, having worked as partners at Stan Druckenmiller&#8217;s Duquesne Capital. He also has strong MAGA ties through his father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, son of Estee Lauder, who is a decades-long friend and ally of Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>One of Warsh&#8217;s two appointees at the Fed is Paul Winfree, who authored the chapter on the Federal Reserve in the Project 2025 blueprint. The other is Daniel Heil, a fellow at Stanford&#8217;s conservative Hoover Institution, where Warsh served before joining the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh enjoys the trust of President Trump, who regularly consults him on economic matters. A far stretch from the strained relationship with his predecessor, Jerome Powell, whom Trump did his best to undermine, including having him investigated by the Justice Department.<\/p>\n<p>President Trump has a long history of turning on his political allies if they do not do his bidding. He repeatedly criticized his earlier appointee, Fed Chair Powell, for not lowering interest rates, going so far as to suggest that Powell was a bigger threat to the United States than Chinese President Xi Jinping. Powell insisted that the Fed made decisions based on data without regard to politics, but that did not seem to placate the President. The Fed then cut rates in September 2024, two months before the last presidential election, which seems to have convinced Trump that Powell was politically motivated.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that Kevin Warsh is politically astute, having won nomination as Fed Chair despite his old-school Republican values. As a recent Trump appointee, presiding over a Fed that hikes rates two months before the upcoming midterm elections would likely be taken by the President as a betrayal of his trust. It would invite similar persecution to what his predecessor faced. That would be politically stupid.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The new Fed Chair is unlikely to convince President Trump of the need to hike rates ahead of the November midterm, and is unlikely to support such a move without his assent.<\/p>\n<p>The President will not want to upset his predominantly blue-collar MAGA base, especially after the Iran debacle, when he needs a strong turnout in the November midterms. Your typical MAGA voter is not that sophisticated and is unlikely to be persuaded by arguments that higher interest rates will reduce inflation in 12 months&#8217; time, but will instead be incensed by an increase in interest payments on their car loan and credit card.<\/p>\n<p>This is kitchen table economics. That is what is driving Fed monetary policy.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/US2Y\">2-Year Treasury Yield<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/08\/06\/trump-fed-chairman-kevin-warsh-relationship.html\">Trump treats Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh as an ally<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Politico:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/11\/19\/trump-treasury-warsh-views-00190450\">Trump Treasury contender alarms the pro-tariff MAGA world<\/a><\/li>\n<li>NPR: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/01\/13\/nx-s1-5674777\/trump-federal-reserve-jerome-powell\">What to know about Trump&#8217;s ugly feud with the Federal Reserve<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/openmarket.htm\">Open Market Operations<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/15\/trump-warsh-fed-reshape.html\">Trump trusts Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/02\/fed-chair-warsh-makes-first-hires-at-central-bank-including-project-2025-author.html\">Fed Chair Warsh makes first hires at central bank<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#8217;s keynote speech at Jackson Hole had a distinct hawkish tone. Financial markets responded with a sharp jump in the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.36%. However, Warsh&#8217;s hands are tied by political considerations, and no rate hike is likely. We are convinced that the FOMC will not hike rates at &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/31\/warsh-hawkish-but-wont-hike\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Fed&#8217;s Warsh Hawkish But Won&#8217;t Hike&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[4808,1358,1429,5599],"class_list":["post-65787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-2-year-treasury-yield","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fomc","tag-jackson-hole"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed&#039;s Warsh Hawkish But Won&#039;t Hike - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed&#039;s Warsh Hawkish But Won&#039;t Hike - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#8217;s keynote speech at Jackson Hole had a distinct hawkish tone. Financial markets responded with a sharp jump in the 2-year Treasury yield to 4.36%. However, Warsh&#8217;s hands are tied by political considerations, and no rate hike is likely. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-h75","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":64970,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/18\/fed-keeps-rates-steady-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":0},"title":"Fed Keeps Rates Steady But Stocks Fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, announced the FOMC would leave rates unchanged. Financial markets reacted to the meeting's hawkish tone, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.17%. Inflation has been above the Fed's 2.0% target for more than 5 years, and inflationary pressures are growing. Kevin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/kevin-warsh.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":65734,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/25\/how-high-can-gold-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":1},"title":"How High Can Gold Rally?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 25, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Gold is rallying to test $5,000 per ounce. The Dollar Index is falling steeply. The new Fed Chair is unlikely to hike rates before the November midterms. But crude oil may spoil the party. Gold has rallied to $4,635 per ounce and looks set to test resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38490,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":2},"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: \"Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26515,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/25\/bond-market-calls-bs-on-feds-hawkish-stance\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":3},"title":"Bond market calls BS on Fed&#8217;s &#8220;hawkish&#8221; stance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields rallied for several hours after the Fed's FOMC press statement but soon resumed testing the lower boarder of its trend channel. The bond market is not convinced by Fed hints at tapering\/raising interest rates. For good reason. Massive stimulus over the past 15 months has driven interest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/27\/powell-pushes-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":4},"title":"Powell pushes back","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned consumers to expect \u201csome pain\u201d from the Fed's fight to tame inflation, in a 10-minute speech yesterday, at Jackson Hole. Pledging to \u201ckeep at it until the job is done\u201d, Powell told the Jackson Hole economic symposium that tighter monetary policy would slow growth in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42536,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/15\/dollar-falls-as-fed-skips\/","url_meta":{"origin":65787,"position":5},"title":"Dollar falls as Fed &#8220;skips&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 15, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed held rates steady as expected, maintaining the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.0% to 5.25%. A \"Hawkish Skip\" While standing pat, the FOMC maintained a hawkish bias, with the Chairman Powell announcing at the Press Conference: \"....nearly all Committee participants expect that it will be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Economic Projections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-14-fomc-dots2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65787"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65789,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65787\/revisions\/65789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}