{"id":65734,"date":"2026-08-25T09:09:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T09:09:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65734"},"modified":"2026-08-25T09:09:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T09:09:57","slug":"how-high-can-gold-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/25\/how-high-can-gold-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"How High Can Gold Rally?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Gold is rallying to test $5,000 per ounce.<\/li>\n<li>The Dollar Index is falling steeply.<\/li>\n<li>The new Fed Chair is unlikely to hike rates before the November midterms.<\/li>\n<li>But crude oil may spoil the party.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Gold has rallied to $4,635 per ounce and looks set to test resistance at $5,000, but will it have enough momentum to carry further?<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Gold rally was caused by a dovish FOMC meeting at the end of July. The bond market had expected a Fed rate hike to establish the new Fed Chair&#8217;s hawkish credibility. Warsh disappointed, with strong words but no action. The 1-Year Treasury Bill rate broke its 6-month trendline, signaling a shift in expectations.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-us1y.png?resize=525%2C332&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"1-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"332\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Also, the Dollar Index broke support, signaling a test of primary support at 97.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The last steep rally in Gold was after a dovish keynote speech by former Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on August 22 last year. Gold climbed $2,000 per ounce within 6 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-gold-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold &amp; S&amp;P 500 ($INX)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The first divergence between Gold (orange above) and the S&amp;P 500 index (blue) occurred shortly after President Trump&#8217;s inauguration, when he launched his tariff onslaught on trading partners. The second massive divergence after Powell&#8217;s speech was followed by a sharp fall starting in March 2026 after the attack on Iran forced some countries to sell reserves, including Gold, to provide liquidity. Selling will likely resume only if there is another spike in oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>A breakout of Brent Crude above $100 per barrel would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-24-brent-oct26.png?resize=525%2C332&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude Futures (ICE October'26)\" width=\"525\" height=\"332\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We don&#8217;t expect the new Fed Chair to hike rates before the November midterms, which should give Gold plenty of time to break resistance at $5,000 per ounce, setting off a fresh advance.<\/p>\n<p>The wild card is crude oil prices. A spike in Brent Crude above $100 per barrel could trigger further selling of Gold reserves by major oil importers to defend their currency, and Gulf states to cover lost export revenues. High energy prices could also force the Fed Chair to hike rates.<\/p>\n<p>We are convinced that Gold will eventually reach $10,000 per ounce, but are unsure whether that will be in one year or ten years. Trends seldom travel in a straight line, as the first half of this year has just reminded us.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@LCO.1\">Brent Crude ICE May&#8217;26 Futures<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/US1Y\">1-Year Treasury Yield<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Gold is rallying to test $5,000 per ounce. The Dollar Index is falling steeply. The new Fed Chair is unlikely to hike rates before the November midterms. But crude oil may spoil the party. Gold has rallied to $4,635 per ounce and looks set to test resistance at $5,000, but will it have &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/25\/how-high-can-gold-rally\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How High Can Gold Rally?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,35],"tags":[4877,7408,1073,5599,3010,3204],"class_list":["post-65734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-1-year-treasury-yield","tag-brent-crude-futures-ice-october26","tag-dollar-index","tag-jackson-hole","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How High Can Gold Rally? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How High Can Gold Rally? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Gold is rallying to test $5,000 per ounce. The Dollar Index is falling steeply. The new Fed Chair is unlikely to hike rates before the November midterms. But crude oil may spoil the party. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-h6e","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14933,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/10\/gold-bears-grow-as-fed-hints-at-rate-hike\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":0},"title":"Gold bears grow as Fed hints at rate hike","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed is expected to hike interest rates next week. 10-year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.5 percent, signaling an advance to the 2013\/2014 high of 3.0 percent. Breakout above 3.0 percent is still a way off but would complete a large double bottom signaling the end of the 30-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":57467,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/13\/gold-breaks-out-to-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":1},"title":"Gold breaks out to new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke resistance at $2,525 per ounce, signaling another advance with a target of $2,600. Silver also made solid gains as the Dollar weakened. Markets anticipate a Fed rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, with 10-year Treasury yields below 3.7%. The S&P 500 rally continues, approaching another test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56689,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/14\/stocks-rally-on-ppi-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":2},"title":"Stocks rally on PPI fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks were boosted by falling producer price index (PPI) growth, which indicates low CPI readings are likely later today. Gold continues to test resistance at $2,475 per ounce, boosted by falling long-term Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar. Stocks The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5400 and is headed for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48611,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/17\/crude-breakout-warns-of-higher-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":3},"title":"Crude breakout warns of higher inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is retracing to test new support at 5000 but respect is likely. Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. The massive rally is likely to continue for as long as the Fed and Treasury continue injecting liquidity in financial markets. Russell 2000 Small Caps (IWM)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57419,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/10\/bull-market-growing-long-in-the-tooth\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":4},"title":"Bull market growing long in the tooth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"If the Fed cuts rates next week, the S&P 500 is expected to re-test its all-time high at 5670, but the longer-term outlook is more bearish. Treasury yields are falling in anticipation of Fed rate cuts, which is bearish for the Dollar but bullish for gold. Stocks The S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":53559,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/29\/soggy-demand-has-a-silver-lining\/","url_meta":{"origin":65734,"position":5},"title":"Soggy demand has a silver lining","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Weak demand at recent Treasury auctions and an up-tick in crude oil seem to have taken the steam out of the S&P 500 up-trend. But financial market conditions remain easy and are expected to support stock prices. Treasury Markets Long-term Treasury yields rose today after two- and five-year auctions both\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65734"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65735,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65734\/revisions\/65735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}