{"id":65621,"date":"2026-08-11T11:05:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T11:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65621"},"modified":"2026-08-11T11:05:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T11:05:03","slug":"prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>China&#8217;s first deflationary shock flooded the global economy with cheap labor in the early 2000s and hollowed out low-tech manufacturing industry in developed economies.<\/li>\n<li>A credit-fueled boom followed, with huge investment in infrastructure and real estate to sustain economic growth.<\/li>\n<li>A massive speculative real estate bubble developed, forcing Beijing to intervene.<\/li>\n<li>The real estate bubble collapsed in a controlled implosion after banking regulators restricted credit to the sector.<\/li>\n<li>Plunging real estate prices destroyed household wealth, setting off a deflationary spiral in China&#8217;s domestic economy.<\/li>\n<li>The government channeled investment into high-tech manufacturing to offset collapsing demand.<\/li>\n<li>Weak local demand forced manufacturers to focus on export markets.<\/li>\n<li>Booming Chinese exports of electric vehicles and other high-tech products threaten to hollow out high-tech industries in developed economies.<\/li>\n<li>However, export markets aren&#8217;t large enough to absorb China&#8217;s demand shock, and pushback from trading partners will likely trigger a major contraction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Last week we focused on the <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/03\/chinas-slowdown\/\">slowdown of China&#8217;s economy<\/a>. This week, we examine the root cause of the problem. Credit.<\/p>\n<p>China experienced a credit-fueled boom in the early 2000s. This went into overdrive with massive government stimulus during the 2008 global financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Unrestrained lending led to a massive speculative bubble in the real estate sector. Alarmed by the rate of credit expansion, Beijing put the brakes on, restricting sector access to credit in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The collapsing real estate bubble has destroyed household wealth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: House Price Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Consumer Confidence collapsed in 2022 and has not recovered.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-cons-confidence.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Consumer Confidence\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Household Debt, which had grown rapidly as a percentage of GDP, plateaued until 2024, and has now started to decline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-hhdebt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Household Debt Percentage of GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Property Investment has contracted since 2022, and is now shrinking at an annual rate of 18%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-property-inv.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Property Investment\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Loan growth from financial institutions has rapidly decelerated to a low of 5.2% in June 2026.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-outstanding-loans.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Outstanding Loan Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit is the lifeblood of an economy, and rapid deceleration in credit growth triggers a domino effect of demand contraction across the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturers turned to export markets to offset declining domestic demand, with exports peaking at $412 billion in June 2026.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-exports.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Exports\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s trade surplus jumped to $126 billion in June, falling back to $113 billion in July.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-trade-surplus.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Trade Surplus\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBOC) has steadily expanded its balance sheet, employing QE to suppress long-term interest rates and stimulate the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-pboc.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: PBOC Balance Sheet\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Chinese government is also running deficits to support the economy, with government debt rapidly expanding to 99.2% of GDP in 2025.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Government Debt to GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Overall debt in the economy shows a similarly steep growth path despite slowing household credit growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-totaldebt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C295&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Government Debt to GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"295\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Developed economies are not much better off (below), with average total debt at 260% of GDP and government debt at 100% of GDP. However, the difference lies in the growth rate: developed economies are no higher than in 2010, while China has almost doubled.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-dm-ave-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C295&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Developed Markets: Government Debt to GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"295\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>China has enjoyed a debt-fueled boom for more than 20 years, but is now sliding into a deflationary contraction. The Chinese economy is addicted to credit, and regulators&#8217; attempts to rein in the speculative real estate boom have triggered a deflationary spiral. Falling real estate prices have destroyed household wealth, leading to a contraction in domestic demand. Beijing boosted investment in high-tech industry to sustain economic growth, leading to a massive trade surplus as manufacturers turned to export markets to offset shrinking domestic demand.<\/p>\n<p>However, export markets are not large enough to absorb China&#8217;s deflationary surge without themselves suffering a domestic contraction. We expect trade surpluses to fall as trading partners push back with tariffs, import quotas, and other trade barriers.<\/p>\n<p>China will then face a stark choice between a collapsing economy and debasing the Yuan through high inflation. We believe that Beijing has chosen the latter option, as the lesser of two evils, and will rapidly expand credit in the economy to that end while the PBOC expands its balance sheet to suppress long-term interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s debasement of the Yuan has fueled a rapid growth in domestic demand for Gold as a store of value, leading to a close correlation between Gold and the PBOC&#8217;s balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-pboc-gold.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: PBOC Balance Sheet\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Michael Howell, Capital Wars: <a href=\"https:\/\/capitalwars.substack.com\/p\/china-restarts-her-great-debasement\">China Restarts Her &#8216;Great Debasement<\/a>&#8216;<\/li>\n<li>Trading Economics: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/china\/balance-of-trade\">China Economic Charts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Yardeni Research: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yardeni.com\/charts\/global-economy\/global-money-credit\/global-debt-gdp-ratios\">Global Money &amp; Credit<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters &amp; Logan Wright of Rhodium Group: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/e38wTjeJcFA?si=fnqq43rjMp99LRAb\">The cause and effects of China&#8217;s slow-motion crash<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/e38wTjeJcFA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points China&#8217;s first deflationary shock flooded the global economy with cheap labor in the early 2000s and hollowed out low-tech manufacturing industry in developed economies. A credit-fueled boom followed, with huge investment in infrastructure and real estate to sustain economic growth. A massive speculative real estate bubble developed, forcing Beijing to intervene. The real &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,45,3761],"tags":[663,794,881,976,992,1079,1328,1726,7423,2867,3456],"class_list":["post-65621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-debt-levels","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-china","tag-consumer-confidence","tag-credit-growth","tag-debt-to-gdp","tag-deflationary-spiral","tag-domestic-demand","tag-exports","tag-household-debt","tag-pboc-balance-sheet","tag-real-estate","tag-trade-surplus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points China&#8217;s first deflationary shock flooded the global economy with cheap labor in the early 2000s and hollowed out low-tech manufacturing industry in developed economies. A credit-fueled boom followed, with huge investment in infrastructure and real estate to sustain economic growth. A massive speculative real estate bubble developed, forcing Beijing to intervene. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact - the patient investor","og_description":"Key Points China&#8217;s first deflationary shock flooded the global economy with cheap labor in the early 2000s and hollowed out low-tech manufacturing industry in developed economies. A credit-fueled boom followed, with huge investment in infrastructure and real estate to sustain economic growth. A massive speculative real estate bubble developed, forcing Beijing to intervene. The real &hellip; Continue reading \"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2026-08-11T11:05:03+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact","datePublished":"2026-08-11T11:05:03+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/"},"wordCount":702,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png","keywords":["China","consumer confidence","credit growth","Debt-to-GDP","deflationary spiral","domestic demand","Exports","household debt","PBOC Balance Sheet","real estate","trade surplus"],"articleSection":["China &amp; HK","Debt Levels","GDP and Activity"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/","name":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png","datePublished":"2026-08-11T11:05:03+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-h4p","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":65544,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/03\/chinas-slowdown\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":0},"title":"China&#8217;s Slowdown","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points China's credit growth slumped to 5.2% in June, down steeply since the 2022 crash in consumer confidence. Housing investment continues to plunge, while fixed asset investment in manufacturing is now shrinking as well. Nominal GDP is growing at an annual rate of 4.1%, while 10-year government bond yields\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China: Consumer Confidence","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":40639,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/30\/michael-pettis-the-china-shock-is-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":1},"title":"Michael Pettis: The China Shock is Coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QcdPMOMS7N8 Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing and one of the foremost Western experts on China, having lived there for almost two decades. He explains the Chinese growth model, why it no longer works, and the hard choices ahead. China's Growth Model China's growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Non-Financial Credit\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36826,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/30\/chinas-real-estate-dilemma\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":2},"title":"China&#8217;s real estate dilemma","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 30, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"China's three decades of unprecedented growth has led to an accumulation of imbalances in the real estate sector that now threaten financial stability. As Hyman Minsky explained, extended periods of stability lead to instability. Participants take on increasing amounts of risk, assuming that stability will continue, making the economy increasingly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3904,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/21\/us-public-debt-growing-at-unsustainable-rate\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":3},"title":"US public debt growing at unsustainable rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"We often blame Fed monetary policy for the GFC, with interest rates at exceptionally low levels leading to \"Greenspan's bubble.\" Treasury was just as culpable, however, with the massive 2004-2005 surge in public debt flooding the market with liquidity. The repeat in 2008-2011 was more justifiable: the spike in public\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7632,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/01\/weak-dollar-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":4},"title":"Weaker Dollar Outlook","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Recovery of the Dollar has been overrated. With restrictions on fiscal deficits, it will be difficult to contain deflationary pressures from the Great Credit Contraction which is likely to endure for at least a decade -- following the Great Credit Bubble over the last 40 years. Fed quantitative easing is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":479,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/the-way-forward\/","url_meta":{"origin":65621,"position":5},"title":"The way forward","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 29, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"There were plenty of central bankers and economists with glum faces at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week as speakers reviewed the challenges ahead. So far the global economy has not responded to various rescue plans, with GDP slowing and national debt rising across a whole slew of economies.Before we look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;The Big Picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65621"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65621\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65624,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65621\/revisions\/65624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}