{"id":65279,"date":"2026-07-18T02:16:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T02:16:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65279"},"modified":"2026-07-18T02:16:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T02:16:56","slug":"bank-of-japan-a-leading-indicator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/18\/bank-of-japan-a-leading-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank of Japan a Leading Indicator?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2025-05-23-berezin-boj.png?resize=525%2C367&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bank of Japan\" width=\"525\" height=\"367\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,17],"tags":[362,1572],"class_list":["post-65279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-japan-korea","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-global-recession"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bank of Japan a Leading Indicator? 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gYT","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63391,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/17\/weak-labor-market-adds-to-the-storm-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":0},"title":"Weak labor market and a gathering storm","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points An expected December 19 rate hike by the Bank of Japan will likely unsettle financial markets, triggering a liquidity contraction as carry trades unwind. The S&P 500 is expected to break support at 6800. The Dollar is expected to weaken, boosting demand for gold and silver. A declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-16-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-16-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-16-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64955,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/japans-debt-trap-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":1},"title":"Japan&#8217;s Debt Trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 16, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to 1.0% after a long pause. The BOJ also paused the taper of its quantitative easing (QE) program. Japanese government debt is at a precarious 200% of GDP. The Japanese Yen is testing resistance at 160 against the Dollar. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Japanese Govt 3-Month Bill Discount Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-16-boj-rate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-16-boj-rate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-16-boj-rate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5950,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/31\/global-qe\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":2},"title":"Global QE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Observation made by Philip Lowe, RBA Deputy Governor: Since mid 2008, four of the world's major central banks \u2013 the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England \u2013 have all expanded their balance sheets very significantly, and further increases have been announced in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":56301,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/03\/death-of-the-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":3},"title":"Death of the Yen carry trade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets seem convinced that the recent stock sell-off in the US is due to growth concerns -- after a weak labor report. We think they are mistaken. The real cause of the sell-off is the unwinding Yen carry trade. Hedge funds have been making a killing on the Yen carry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USD\/Japanese Yen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48870,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/22\/conference-board-leading-index-no-longer-signals-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":4},"title":"Conference Board | Leading Index no longer signals recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index\u00ae (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January to 102.7 (2016=100).... LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the latest six-months and 7.1 percent over 12 months. \"The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Conference Board Leading Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":34514,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/18\/crude-oil-and-the-yen-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":65279,"position":5},"title":"Crude oil and the Yen\/Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is trying to maintain its peg of the 10-Year government bond (JGB) at a yield of 0.25% p.a. But rising inflation, primarily from the spike in oil and gas prices, has increased pressure on yields. Lyn Alden highlights the BoJ dilemma: Printing into an inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bank of Japan: Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-17-boj-ycc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-17-boj-ycc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-17-boj-ycc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65279"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65279\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65280,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65279\/revisions\/65280"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}