{"id":65107,"date":"2026-07-01T10:48:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T10:48:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65107"},"modified":"2026-07-01T10:49:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T10:49:34","slug":"brent-flat-bitcoin-gold-sink-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/01\/brent-flat-bitcoin-gold-sink-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent Flat, Bitcoin &#038; Gold Sink Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Brent Crude tests support at $70 per barrel.<\/li>\n<li>Gold tests support at $4,000 per ounce.<\/li>\n<li>The Dow closes at a new high.<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin breaches support at 60,000, signaling risk-off across financial markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Brent Crude prices remain flat at close to $70 per barrel despite on-again\/off-again peace talks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-brent.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We are entering the summer driving season in the US, when demand for gasoline peaks. Gasoline prices will likely remain high as refiners enjoy wide profit margins, with the 3-2-1 crack spread<sup>2<\/sup> above $60 per barrel for the first time since Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-crackspread-321.png?resize=378%2C189&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Energy Channel: 3-2-1 Crack Spread\" width=\"378\" height=\"189\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin<sup>1<\/sup> broke primary support at 60,000. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level, but respect will likely confirm another decline. Falling Bitcoin prices signal a market-wide shift to risk-off.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-btc.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high. The replacement of Verizon (VZ) in the Average with Alphabet (GOOGL) on June 29 may have something to do with this.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 also rallied, testing resistance at 7500. A follow-through above the recent high would offer a target of 8000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar retreated slightly, but all eyes are on the Japanese Yen, which weakened to its lowest point against the Dollar in more than 40 years. Expected intervention by Japan&#8217;s Ministry of Finance would temporarily strengthen the Yen but would be self-defeating, as it would increase selling pressure in Japan&#8217;s bond market. Rising bond yields force the Bank of Japan to intervene by buying bonds. That weakens the Yen and negates the MOF&#8217;s earlier move.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-jpy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Japanese Yen\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is a difficult trap to escape from. If the BOJ raised its policy rate from the current low of 1.0%, it would strengthen the Yen but increase upward pressure on bond yields, forcing the Bank to buy more bonds, thereby weakening the Yen.<\/p>\n<p>Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce again, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of secondary selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Plunging open interest on Comex Gold futures indicates that speculators are losing interest in the precious metal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-gold-openinterest.png?resize=480%2C465&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Gold Futures Open Interest\" width=\"480\" height=\"465\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, one major player is buying the dip. Bloomberg reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Imports were around 163 tons last month, the highest since March 2024, according to customs data released on Saturday. Volumes for the first five months of 2026 were about 692 tons, up by about 76% from a year earlier.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-30-china-goldimports.png?resize=525%2C320&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China: Nonmonetary Gold Imports\" width=\"525\" height=\"320\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We expect Brent Crude to remain around $70 per barrel, provided there is no interruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This eases inflation expectations, but existing pressures persist and prevent the Fed from cutting rates.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks remain bullish, but Bitcoin warns of rising risk aversion.<\/p>\n<p>Gold will likely remain under pressure while negotiations with Iran continue, but China has increased its imports of nonmonetary Gold, buying the dip. We expect the uptrend in Gold to continue for decades, interspersed with regular sell-offs like the present, curbing speculators&#8217; enthusiasm and enabling long-term players to build their positions.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/yen-hits-40-year-low-clock-ticks-intervention-2026-06-30\/\">Yen hits 40-year low as clock ticks on intervention<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Money Metals Exchange:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4918869-china-says-thanks-gold\">China Says &#8216;Thanks For The Gold!&#8217;<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.<\/li>\n<li>The 3-2-1 crack spread is calculated on the theoretical refining margin if a barrel of oil is split 2:1 between gasoline and diesel. A spread of $60 indicates that refiners&#8217; margins would have tripled from $20 in January 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Brent Crude tests support at $70 per barrel. Gold tests support at $4,000 per ounce. The Dow closes at a new high. Bitcoin breaches support at 60,000, signaling risk-off across financial markets. Brent Crude prices remain flat at close to $70 per barrel despite on-again\/off-again peace talks. We are entering the summer driving &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/01\/brent-flat-bitcoin-gold-sink-again\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Brent Flat, Bitcoin &#038; Gold Sink Again&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,44,5342,9,6165,19,34],"tags":[5056,7365,1113,7366,1935,3204],"class_list":["post-65107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-cryptocurrency","category-gold-precious-metals","category-japanese-yen","category-middle-east","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-china-nonmonetary-gold-imports","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-gold-futures-open-interest","tag-japanese-yen","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brent Flat, Bitcoin &amp; Gold Sink Again - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brent Flat, Bitcoin &amp; Gold Sink Again - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Brent Crude tests support at $70 per barrel. Gold tests support at $4,000 per ounce. The Dow closes at a new high. Bitcoin breaches support at 60,000, signaling risk-off across financial markets. Brent Crude prices remain flat at close to $70 per barrel despite on-again\/off-again peace talks. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gW7","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":51187,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/16\/markets-move-to-risk-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":0},"title":"Markets move to Risk-Off","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 16, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin broke support at $64K, warning that financial markets are moving to risk-off . Traders and investors reduce their exposure to risk and focus on protecting their capital. Follow-through below $62K would confirm, warning of a sharp fall (in BTC) and a stock market correction. The 10-Year Treasury yield has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-15-btc3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-15-btc3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-15-btc3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56433,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/07\/contracting-liquidity-could-spoil-the-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":1},"title":"Contracting liquidity could spoil the recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Japanese Yen found support and stocks enjoyed a slight bounce as less cautious buyers went hunting for bargains. But financial markets are not settled. Corporate bond spreads are widening and Bitcoin broke support at $60K to warn of contracting liquidity. Financial Markets Moody's low investment-grade Baa corporate bond spread\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Moody's Baa Rated Corporate Bond Spreads","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51770,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/24\/bitcoin-flags-swing-to-risk-on\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":2},"title":"Bitcoin flags swing to Risk-On","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets are rebounding as Middle East tensions ease, with the S&P 500 headed for a test of new resistance at 5100. Breakout is likely -- and would offer a target of the March high at 5250. Bitcoin paints a similar picture. A rally to test resistance at $72K would be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55832,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/24\/how-long-will-the-exuberance-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":3},"title":"How long will the exuberance last?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are tentative ahead of the current earnings season, with the S&P 500 likely to re-test support after a weak bounce. Precious metals are testing support, while crude oil and base metals are in a bear market as Chinese growth slows. Stocks The S&P 500 shows a weak bounce off\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55629,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/13\/sector-rotation-to-small-caps-and-value\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":4},"title":"Sector rotation to small caps and value","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields continue to fall with the 10-year yield testing support at 4.2%. Stocks recovered partially from Thursday's tech sell-off, while rotation from growth to value sectors -- and large caps to small caps -- continues. Precious metals are likely to benefit from falling long-term interest rates and a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50728,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/04\/brent-crude-approaching-90-gold-at-2300\/","url_meta":{"origin":65107,"position":5},"title":"Brent crude approaching $90, Gold at $2300","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ISM Services PMI shows the US economy is expanding but at a slower pace. Brent crude and Gold warn of higher inflation but financial market liquidity is keeping a lid on long-term interest rates. Crude Oil Brent crude continues its advance, reaching $89.43 per barrel on Wednesday. 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