{"id":65012,"date":"2026-06-23T08:31:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T08:31:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=65012"},"modified":"2026-06-23T08:31:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T08:31:32","slug":"a-lull-in-hostilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/23\/a-lull-in-hostilities\/","title":{"rendered":"A Lull in Hostilities"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Hostilities in Lebanon faded.<\/li>\n<li>Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased.<\/li>\n<li>Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel.<\/li>\n<li>2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Brent Crude futures (Aug&#8217;26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-brent.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after \u200bthe United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, \u200band as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the \u2060broader agreement.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh \u200bon the market,&#8221; said ING analysts in a note.<\/p>\n<p>Two crude tankers with just under 2 \u200bmillion barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the \u200bwaterway. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-gains-after-selloff-awaits-progress-strait-hormuz-flows-2026-06-23\/\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The text of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/06\/18\/nx-s1-5863027\/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text\">Memorandum of Understanding<\/a> signed by the US and Iran can be separated into two parts. The MOU is mostly &#8220;talks about talks&#8221; where the parties merely agree to negotiate the terms of a Final Deal, but it contains an agreement to cease hostilities while negotiations take place, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.<\/li>\n<li>Ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.<\/li>\n<li>The US to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping.<\/li>\n<li>The US to waive existing sanctions against Iranian crude oil and petroleum exports.<\/li>\n<li>The US to release frozen or restricted funds and assets belonging to Iran.<\/li>\n<li>Iran will make its &#8220;best efforts&#8221; to ensure the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The MOU offers Iran a financial reward in exchange for allowing safe passage through the Strait. The deal is tenuous, and already the IRGC has threatened to close the Strait due to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>Israel is not a signatory to the MOU, and will not readily agree to the first two terms if it feels that they compromise their national defense. The Gulf States are also not signatories, and will similarly defend their national interests.<\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.209%, more than 45 basis points above the Fed funds target range, in expectation of tighter Fed monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-2y.png?resize=525%2C301&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"301\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below -0.50 continues to signal easy monetary conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin<sup>1<\/sup> is testing primary support at 60,000, signaling a shift in financial markets to risk-off. A breach of support would warn of a market-wide contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-btc.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields firmed to 4.51%, suggesting another test of resistance at 4.75%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>SpaceX retreated to test its June 12 opening price of 150.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-spcx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"SpaceX\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Magnificent 7 also lost ground, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) retreating below support at 68 on the weekly chart below. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of a correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-mags.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 also shows signs of secondary selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar strengthened amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates. Breakout of the US Dollar Index above 100.50 indicates an advance to 103, but first expect retracement to test support at 100.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of selling pressure. A breach of $4,000 would indicate another decline, but beware of a bear trap. Gold is in a <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/22\/gold-outlook-improves\/\">secular uptrend<\/a> that we expect to last for decades.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Energy<\/h2>\n<p>The Dow Jones Global Oil &amp; Gas Index broke support at 575, signaling a primary downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-w1ene.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Global Oil &amp; Gas Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Uranium<\/h3>\n<p>Sprott Uranium Miners ETF<sup>2<\/sup> (URNM) broke primary support at 58, also signaling a downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-urnm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Copper<\/h3>\n<p>Copper is testing support at 13,500, and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would warn of a bull trap, with a decline to test the 50-week moving average.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-cu.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Copper\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sprott Copper Miners ETF<sup>2<\/sup> (COPP) reinforces the bearish copper chart, retreating from resistance between 44 and 45 while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of persistent selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-copp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Lithium<\/h3>\n<p>Sprott Lithium Miners ETF<sup>2<\/sup> (LITP) is also retreating, and a fall below 13 would test primary support at 11.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-litp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Critical Minerals<\/h3>\n<p>Sprott Critical Materials ETF<sup>2<\/sup> (SETM) shows similar signs of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 30 is likely.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-setm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Brent Crude and oil and gas stocks are falling as the Strait of Hormuz is tentatively reopened, but the real test will be the impact of global strategic reserves. A continued decline would cause a rebound in energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>Financial markets are shedding high-risk assets amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Declining Trend Index peaks on the S&amp;P 500 signal a correction.<\/p>\n<p>The Dollar is strengthening, and Gold is headed for another test of support at $4,000 per ounce, but these moves run counter to their <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/22\/gold-outlook-improves\/\">secular trends<\/a> where we expect Dollar weakness and Gold strength.<\/p>\n<p>Energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off amid expectations of lower oil and gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.<\/p>\n<p>Uncertainty remains high, and we expect elevated volatility in the months ahead. We adopt a defensive stance, with minimal exposure to high-multiple growth stocks and long-duration financial assets. Value stocks with stable income streams and short-duration financial assets are a haven in times of volatility, but we still expect a secular uptrend in Gold and maintain our position.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@LCO.1\">Brent Crude ICE Aug&#8217;26 Futures<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-gains-after-selloff-awaits-progress-strait-hormuz-flows-2026-06-23\/\">Oil inches down as investors focus on Hormuz flows after peace talks<\/a><\/li>\n<li>NPR: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/06\/18\/nx-s1-5863027\/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text\">Read the full text of Trump&#8217;s preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.<\/li>\n<li>We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Hostilities in Lebanon faded. Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased. Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel. 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy. Brent Crude futures (Aug&#8217;26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon. Prices fell more &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/23\/a-lull-in-hostilities\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A Lull in Hostilities&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4738,5282,44,5342,6,9,4547,19,6106,34,35],"tags":[69,4808,4585,495,6622,815,4514,1073,7140,1113,4485,7129,3010,3204,5228],"class_list":["post-65012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-copper","category-critical-materials","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-cryptocurrency","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-lithium","category-middle-east","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-2-year-treasury-yield","tag-bitcoin","tag-brent-crude","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-copper","tag-critical-materials","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-global-oil-gas-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-lithium","tag-roundhill-magnificent-7-etf-mags","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-uranium"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Lull in Hostilities - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Lull in Hostilities - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Hostilities in Lebanon faded. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Copper, Uranium, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, following the Lithium breakout.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Silver","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-12-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-12-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-12-silver.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/05\/bitcoin-plunge-signals-risk-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":65012,"position":1},"title":"Bitcoin Plunge Signals Risk-Off","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Bitcoin plunged to $71,200, warning that financial markets are becoming risk-averse. 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Sovereign bonds across the UK, the EU, and Japan are all affected by the sell-off. The S&P 500 and the Dow retreated on Friday by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. 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Xi Jinping has the upper hand in negotiations with Donald Trump because of China's large strategic oil reserves, which they could use\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Producer Price Index (PPI)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-13-ppi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-13-ppi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-13-ppi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64813,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/04\/bitcoin-plunge-signals-risk-off-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":65012,"position":4},"title":"Bitcoin Plunge Signals Risk-Off","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Bitcoin tests primary support at $63,000, signaling risk-off. 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