{"id":64826,"date":"2026-06-05T07:40:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T07:40:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64826"},"modified":"2026-06-05T07:40:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T07:40:37","slug":"shift-from-growth-to-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/05\/shift-from-growth-to-value\/","title":{"rendered":"Shift from Growth to Value"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The Dow jumped 1.7% to a new high above 51500, outstripping the S&amp;P 500, which gained 0.4%.<\/li>\n<li>The Russell 1000 shows a shift from Growth to Value.<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin is testing primary support at 62000, signaling a market shift to risk-off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Dow jumped 1.7% to a new high above 51500, boosted by a strong shift to value stocks in the blue-chip index. Rising Trend Index troughs confirm buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 lagged, with a 0.4% gain, though it remains in a strong uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The recent rally in Growth stocks (IWF) relative to Value stocks (IWD) in the Russell 1000 threatens to reverse with a break of the rising trendline.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-iwf-iwd.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 1000 Large Cap Value ETF (IWD) vs. Russell 1000 Large Cap Growth ETF (IWF)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A shift from Growth to Value would reinforce the Bitcoin<sup>1<\/sup> risk-off signal below. A breach of primary support at 62,000 would signal another decline, reflecting market attempts to shed risk assets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-btc.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The war with Iran has also upended the Treasury market, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping above 3.6% at the beginning of March, ending the primary downtrend. The reversal signals no more rate cuts, with the rally now exceeding the Fed funds target range of 3.5% to 3.75% as expectations for rate hikes grow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-2y.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The economy is at full employment, with job openings exceeding unemployment for the first time in 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-04-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Job Openings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation is rising, with CPI likely to follow Brent crude higher.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-27-brent-cpi.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI &amp; Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It would be unreasonable to expect the new Fed Chair to push for rate hikes at his first meeting, but we are likely to see a switch to a tightening bias.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Dow is gaining on the S&amp;P 500 as financial markets shift to a risk-off stance.<\/p>\n<p>Kevin Warsh will chair his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. 2-year Treasury yields indicate the bond market does not expect further rate cuts. The FOMC will likely switch to a tightening bias to calm market fears of rising inflation.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The Dow jumped 1.7% to a new high above 51500, outstripping the S&amp;P 500, which gained 0.4%. The Russell 1000 shows a shift from Growth to Value. Bitcoin is testing primary support at 62000, signaling a market shift to risk-off. The Dow jumped 1.7% to a new high above 51500, boosted by a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/05\/shift-from-growth-to-value\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Shift from Growth to Value&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,46,6,13,34],"tags":[7337,4585,495,854,1113,4874,6584,6585,3010,3531],"class_list":["post-64826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-fixed-income","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-2-year-bond-yields","tag-bitcoin","tag-brent-crude","tag-cpi","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-job-openings","tag-russell-1000-growth-etf-iwf","tag-russell-1000-value-etf-iwd","tag-sp-500","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shift from Growth to Value - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shift from Growth to Value - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The Dow jumped 1.7% to a new high above 51500, outstripping the S&amp;P 500, which gained 0.4%. The Russell 1000 shows a shift from Growth to Value. Bitcoin is testing primary support at 62000, signaling a market shift to risk-off. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gRA","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":60528,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/22\/good-as-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":0},"title":"Good as gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 22, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks continue their rally, with a surge of liquidity lifting the S&P 500 and its equal-weighted index. Treasury yields softened, and the Dollar weakened, but gold broke resistance to signal another test of its recent high at $2,800 per ounce. Stocks The S&P 500 overcame hesitancy at 6000, signaling a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60563,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/24\/gold-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":1},"title":"Gold surges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 24, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A surge in liquidity boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 breaking resistance at 6100 to make a new high. The Dollar and long-term Treasury yields were......, while gold surged to test its October high. Stocks The S&P 500 broke resistance at 6100. Expect retracement to test the new support level,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60383,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/15\/inflation-fears-threaten-higher-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":2},"title":"Inflation fears threaten higher interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets are hesitant ahead of December CPI data due for release in a few hours. Fearful of a resurgence in inflation, Treasury investors are driving up long-term interest rates, with the 10-year yield headed for a test of 5.0%. Long-term inflation expectations are rising, with the University of Michigan 5-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60459,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/19\/us-liquidity-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":3},"title":"US Liquidity Surges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Surging financial market liquidity should boost stocks and, to a lesser extent, bonds. However, the Fed is running out of road. If they continue with QT, liquidity will soon start to contract. Financial Markets Financial conditions are stimulative, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declining to -0.63 on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-17-nfci.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-17-nfci.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-17-nfci.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55805,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/23\/fading-chinese-demand-drags-on-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":4},"title":"Fading Chinese demand drags on markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 put in a weak rally, with the rotation from growth to value fading. Precious metals, crude oil and base metals, however, are all falling as Chinese demand fades. Stocks The S&P 500 found support at 5500 but a declining Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Another test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58469,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/value-eclipses-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":64826,"position":5},"title":"Value eclipses growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks found support, with value sectors registering the most significant gains. The Dollar strengthened, as did gold and silver, which benefited from their safe-haven status. Stocks The S&P 500 respected support at 5800. Follow-through above yesterday's high would confirm another advance, strengthening our target of 6000. The equal-weighted index similarly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64826"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64828,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64826\/revisions\/64828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}