{"id":64801,"date":"2026-06-04T01:31:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T01:31:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64801"},"modified":"2026-06-04T01:31:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T01:31:30","slug":"gulf-states-shrinking-surpluses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/04\/gulf-states-shrinking-surpluses\/","title":{"rendered":"Gulf States’ Shrinking Surpluses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reuters<\/a> reports how the war with Iran has affected Gulf states’ international investment flows:<\/p>\n

The UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman had $4 trillion in public overseas assets in 2025, the International Institute of Finance estimates. That treasure chest, which is divided between official reserves and sovereign wealth funds, represents the accumulated oil-fueled surpluses in the six Gulf states\u2019 current accounts, which reached 15.7% of their collective GDP in 2022.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Gulf<\/p>\n

These outflows have probably now peaked. The average Gulf state’s current account surplus \u200bcould in a pessimistic scenario shrink to just 3.3% of GDP in 2026, the IIF reckons, as the blocked Strait of Hormuz chokes oil exports. At $100 per barrel, a six-month interruption to the 20 million barrels of oil and products that previously passed through the Strait \u200bevery day – assuming half these flows can be diverted via pipelines – amounts to $183 billion of lost revenue.<\/p>\n

Gulf states are also rethinking their spending priorities. Consultant Rystad Energy puts the cost of repairing energy infrastructure in the region at as much as $58 billion. A new pipeline to bypass the Strait and deliver oil to ships in the Indian Ocean might cost $55 billion. Tehran’s attacks on its neighbours mean Saudi, the UAE and Qatar will also spend substantially more on defense.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We expect Gulf State investment outflows to fall by $400 to $500 billion over the next two years, affecting demand for bonds, equities, and gold bullion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reuters reports how the war with Iran has affected Gulf states’ international investment flows: The UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman had $4 trillion in public overseas assets in 2025, the International Institute of Finance estimates. That treasure chest, which is divided between official reserves and sovereign wealth funds, represents the accumulated oil-fueled surpluses … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gulf States’ Shrinking Surpluses”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[7328,476,7329,1263,1578,7325,2043,7228,7201,7327,7330,7326],"class_list":["post-64801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east","tag-bahrain","tag-bonds-2","tag-current-account-surplus","tag-equities","tag-gold-2","tag-gulf-states","tag-kuwait","tag-oman","tag-qatar","tag-saudi","tag-sovereign-wealth-fund","tag-uae"],"yoast_head":"\nGulf States' Shrinking Surpluses - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gulf States' Shrinking Surpluses - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Reuters reports how the war with Iran has affected Gulf states’ international investment flows: The UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman had $4 trillion in public overseas assets in 2025, the International Institute of Finance estimates. 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The Fed kept the fed funds target rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Gold is testing support at $4,800 per barrel. From CNBC: Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/05\/deep-crude-oil-production-cuts-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":64801,"position":1},"title":"Deep Crude Oil Production Cuts & More Inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent crude futures climbed to $83.87 per barrel. The Saudis, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait are considering deep cuts in crude oil production if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The ISM manufacturing and services sectors both reported persistent price increases in February. A recent New York Fed survey\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-04-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-04-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-04-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64061,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/","url_meta":{"origin":64801,"position":2},"title":"Ceasefire Falls Apart","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran's lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. The United Arab Emirates carried out air\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"UAE Air Strike on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-08-uae.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":63763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/28\/us-israel-attack-iran-commodities-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":64801,"position":3},"title":"US & Israel Attack Iran, Commodities Spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US military has begun \"major combat operations\" in Iran. Iran launched missiles at Israel and at several Gulf Arab states that host American bases. Iran warns that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping. Crude oil is expected to spike, along with precious metals and critical\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Airstrikes on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63895,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/17\/no-pain-no-gain\/","url_meta":{"origin":64801,"position":4},"title":"No Pain No Gain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 17, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US is allowing Iran to export oil to India and China to reduce the supply shortage. The US should embargo all Iranian shipping to increase pressure on the Iranian government. The US is allowing Iran to ship oil to China and India to reduce the supply shortage\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-16-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-16-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-16-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/02\/us-and-iran-launch-fresh-attacks\/","url_meta":{"origin":64801,"position":5},"title":"Ceasefire Unwinds as US and Iran Launch Fresh Attacks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 2, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CNBC says that talks with Iran have stalled: Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran\u2019s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday. The report, in a translated post on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64801\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}