{"id":64763,"date":"2026-05-30T07:39:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T07:39:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64763"},"modified":"2026-05-30T07:39:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T07:39:35","slug":"us-market-snapshot-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/30\/us-market-snapshot-25\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

We have revised the bull-bear market leading indicator to improve its responsiveness, stripping it down to a composite of five key indicators. At present, two of five indicators signal risk-off, indicating medium risk of a US bear market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"Bull\/Bear<\/p><\/div>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

US stock pricing increased to 96.92% from 96.66% last week, compared to the recent low of 91.79% seven weeks ago.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"US<\/p>\r\n\r\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator's current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher the stock market price measure is relative to the historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p><\/div>\n

Buffett Indicator<\/h3>\n
The ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP reached a new high of 3.24, up from 3.19 last week, and more than double its long-term average of 1.2. Warren Buffett's favorite long-term measure of stock market valuation provides a stable, long-term ratio unaffected by fluctuating profit margins. \r\n\r\n\"Buffett<\/div>\n

Shiller CAPE<\/h3>\n
Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio increased to 41.33 from 40.75 last week. This is the second-highest peak in history, behind the Dotcom bubble in 2000, and far above the long-term average of 22.4. CAPE smoothes out business-cycle distortions by comparing the S&P 500 index to a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings.\r\n\r\n\"Robert<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The Bull-Bear indicator suggests the US economy is slowing, but not yet in a recession.<\/p>\n

Pricing is growing more extreme, however, increasing the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n