{"id":64717,"date":"2026-05-29T09:19:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64717"},"modified":"2026-05-29T09:29:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:29:45","slug":"there-is-no-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/29\/there-is-no-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"There is No Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>President Trump raised hopes that he is about to sign a deal with Iran that will allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/li>\n<li>Crude prices fell, along with long-term Treasury yields.<\/li>\n<li>The US economy is slowing, with real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.<\/li>\n<li>Real personal income per capita declined for the third straight month.<\/li>\n<li>Personal savings plunged, warning of a recession.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Brent crude is testing support at $90 per barrel on news of an &#8220;imminent deal&#8221; with Iran.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-28-brent.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Every time the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.5%, Axios runs a headline citing sources close to the President saying he is close to a deal. Crude oil futures plunge, but the deal never materializes.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>WASHINGTON\/CAIRO, May 28 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/iran-us-trade-air-strikes-after-trump-dismisses-report-hormuz-deal-2026-05-28\/\">Reuters<\/a>) &#8211; The United States and Iran reached \u200ban agreement on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve \u200cit and Iranian state media said it had not been finalized.<\/p>\n<p>According to four sources familiar with the matter, the agreement would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran&#8217;s nuclear program.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has not yet approved the deal, the sources said. Iran has yet to comment on news of the proposed \u200bdeal, which was first reported by Axios.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ignore the BS and focus on the bottom line. There is no deal until an agreement is signed \u2014 and adhered to by all parties, including Bibi Netanyahu.<\/p>\n<p>US Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by another 9 million barrels in the week ending May 22.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-28-spr.png?resize=525%2C394&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed at the end of June, crude oil markets will panic over looming shortages.<br \/>\n<i>[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only]<\/i><\/p>\n&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>If you are already a subscriber, please log in to continue reading:<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 400px; max-width: 90%; margin: auto;\"><div class=\"WishListMember_LoginMergeCode\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form\"><form action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\" class=\"wlm_inpageloginform\">\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"wlm_redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form\">\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"log\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_log\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Password<\/label><span class=\"wishlist-member-login-password\"><input name=\"pwd\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_pwd\" type=\"password\" value=\"\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"dashicons dashicons-visibility\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" class=\" form-checkbox fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\"  value=\"forever\"> Remember Me<\/label><\/div>\n<p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Login\"><\/p>\n\n<p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=lostpassword\">Lost your Password?<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form><\/div><form method=\"post\" action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=wishlistmember-otl\" class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form-otl\" style=\"display: none;\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-notice -permanent\">Please enter your username or email address. 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Crude prices fell, along with long-term Treasury yields. The US economy is slowing, with real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter. Real personal income &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/29\/there-is-no-deal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;There is No Deal&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,5342,6,3761,34],"tags":[69,5056,495,6622,5648,1113,7316,6879,5649,4925,6478,2870,3010],"class_list":["post-64717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-cryptocurrency","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-brent-crude","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-core-pce-inflation","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-manufacturing-new-orders-durable-goods","tag-manufacturing-new-orders-non-defense-capital-goods-excluding-aircraft","tag-pce-inflation","tag-personal-saving-rate","tag-real-disposable-personal-income-per-capita","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>There is No Deal - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"There is No Deal - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points President Trump raised hopes that he is about to sign a deal with Iran that will allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gPP","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":53717,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/01\/long-tail-on-sp-500-as-core-pce-eases\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":0},"title":"Long tail on S&#038;P 500 as core PCE eases","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rebounded off support at 5200, the long tail indicating strong buying pressure. Declining Trend Index peaks still warn of secondary selling but follow-through above 5350 would confirm another advance, with a target of 5500. The equal-weighted S&P 500 turned earlier, on Thursday, and the strong blue candle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-31-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/01\/a-bad-day-for-big-tech\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":1},"title":"A bad day for big tech","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Mega-cap technology stocks had a bad day on Thursday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) delivered solid results for the third quarter, but supply chain challenges and rising costs of AI-focused data center expansion marred their growth outlook. Microsoft (MSFT) shares slid 6% despite the software maker exceeding expectations in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Top 7 Technology Stocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-31-big7.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":47792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/27\/solid-q4-gdp-lifts-sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":2},"title":"Solid Q4 GDP lifts S&#038;P 500","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 27, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Easy monetary policy is supporting a robust US economy but there are signs that growth is slowing and investors remain cautious. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 4900 -- a new high for the index. Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50653,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/02\/us-manufacturing-pmi-jumps\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":3},"title":"US Manufacturing PMI jumps","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy looks healthy, with strong manufacturing and construction numbers. But soaring Gold prices warn that something is amiss. The Institute for Supply Management shows a strong upsurge in US manufacturing in March, with the PMI\u00ae recovering to 50.3% -- the first expansion (above 50) in sixteen months. New\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ISM Manufacturing PMI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-01-ism-mnfg-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":49454,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/05\/gold-breaks-out-to-a-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":4},"title":"Gold breaks out to a new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold closed at a new high of $2114 per ounce, after breaking resistance at $2080. Two tall blue candles indicate strong buyer sentiment, supported by rising troughs on the Trend Index. Retracement to test the new support level at $2080 is likely; respect would signal a strong advance, with a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-05-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-05-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-05-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":49252,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/01\/core-pce-surprise-jump\/","url_meta":{"origin":64717,"position":5},"title":"Core PCE surprise jump","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly core PCE -- the Fed's favorite measure of underlying inflation -- jumped by 0.416% or 5.0% annualized. Annual figures are still declining, including the Trimmed Mean PCE which declined to 3.2%. 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