{"id":64651,"date":"2026-05-21T11:22:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T11:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64651"},"modified":"2026-05-21T11:22:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T11:22:49","slug":"inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, driving stock prices and home prices to record highs.<\/li>\n<li>But that is about to collide with a global oil shock of unprecedented proportions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The inflationary boom is driven by:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tax cuts<\/strong> from Trump&#8217;s &#8220;Big Beautiful Bill.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fed rate cuts<\/strong>. The Fed has two mandates: first, to maintain price stability by keeping inflation in check; second, to keep the economy at full employment. The Unemployment Rate (blue) was already low, below 5.0%, and Core PCE Inflation (red), the Fed&#8217;s favored inflation measure, was above its 2.0% target, which did not justify rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Target Rate (Upper Limit), Unemployment Rate, Core PCE Inflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Quantitative easing (QE)<\/strong>. The Fed has expanded its balance sheet since December 2025, adding $193 billion of liquidity to financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-fedassets.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The declining Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index reflects the impact of easing monetary policy over the past three years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fiscal stimulus<\/strong>. The budget deficit is set to exceed 6% of GDP in 2026. Congress was never going to contain fiscal spending heading into an election year, with the midterms in November. The Supreme Court overturned Trump&#8217;s tariffs, but they would not have made a meaningful difference to the deficit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AI spending boom<\/strong>. Capital spending by major technology companies has contributed more than 90% of GDP growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>War stimulus<\/strong>. On top of that, we have military spending on the war with Iran, which costs more than $1 billion per day.<\/p>\n<h2>Past Inflationary Booms<\/h2>\n<p>This is the fourth inflationary boom since the 1960s:<\/p>\n<p>The first inflationary boom saw a massive spike in consumer prices, with CPI reaching nearly 15.0% in 1980.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-cpi-1980s.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI in the 1980s\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The second boom was during the Dotcom era of the late 1990s. Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE ratio \u2014 which compares the S&amp;P 500 to the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings \u2014 reached record highs during the Dotcom bubble.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-15-spx-cape.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Robert Shiller's S&amp;P 500 CAPE Ratio\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The third inflationary boom manifested in the real estate and banking sectors, leading to the 2008 banking crisis. The Chart below shows elevated growth in real estate prices and a massive surge in the NYSE Financial Composite Index before a dramatic collapse.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-case-shiller-nysefin.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index &amp; NYSE Financial Composite Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The fourth wave is evident in the AI sector and private credit. The Nasdaq QQQ ETF has more than doubled in the past three years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-qqq2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE Ratio (shown earlier) has exceeded 40 for the first time since the Dotcom bubble.<\/p>\n<p>The nebulous private credit sector is another threat. Linkages through credit lines from the banking sector, and private credit acquisitions of insurance companies, which are then stuffed with assets of dubious quality, would spread any financial shock across the entire financial sector.<\/p>\n<p>Another bubble of epic proportions is emerging in government debt, which threatens to exceed its 1946 high of 106 percent of GDP, after WWII.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CBO Projections of Federal Debt-to-GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>What triggers the end of the current boom is still to be determined.<\/p>\n<h2>Global Oil Shock<\/h2>\n<p>The most likely trigger is the supply shock from a global oil shortage.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hfir.com\/p\/oil-storage-math-theres-no-hiding\">HFI Research<\/a> highlights the shortfall in global crude exports:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Global crude exports are lower by ~6 million b\/d in May vs last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-crude-globalexports.png?resize=525%2C402&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global Crude Exports\" width=\"525\" height=\"402\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s with the US averaging 5.6 million b\/d this month, or +2.1 million b\/d year-on-year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-crude-usexports.png?resize=525%2C402&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"US Crude Exports\" width=\"525\" height=\"402\" \/><\/p>\n<p>What most people may not realize is that the current export trend in the US is completely unsustainable. This week\u2019s EIA oil storage report saw the <strong>largest crude oil inventory draw in history<\/strong>\u00a0&#8230;.slightly lower than what we had projected. By July, US commercial crude storage will hit an operational minimum, and the market is already starting to price out US crude exports.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The EIA chart below depicts the record decline in US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-eia-crude-inventory.png?resize=525%2C394&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"EIA Crude Inventory including SPR\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The US economy is particularly vulnerable at present.<\/p>\n<p>The economy is expanding, fueled by fiscal and monetary stimulus, but is almost totally reliant on AI capital spending to maintain GDP growth. That same stimulus has increased inflationary pressures, further exacerbated by rising oil prices emanating from the war with Iran. Depleting global oil reserves and continued curtailment of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will likely drive crude oil prices even higher.<\/p>\n<p>Increased fiscal stimulus by highly indebted Japan, in response to the crude oil supply shock, has heightened bond market concerns about a sovereign debt crisis and is driving up long-term yields.<\/p>\n<p>Rising long-term interest rates add further pressure on an already fragile financial system. A highly leveraged private credit sector and corporate borrowers face debt roll-overs at much higher rates.<\/p>\n<p>Rising interest rates also increase pressure on the fiscal budget. CBO projections assume 10-year Treasury yields of 4.2% and a Fed funds rate of 3.4%. Every 1-basis-point increase adds $3.9 billion in interest expense to the budget deficit. 50 basis points (0.5%) would add $195 billion \u2014 close to the $200 billion DoD budget funding request for the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>Inflationary pressures have created an increasingly fragile economy. That is now colliding with rising pressure on crude oil prices as the shortfall in global shipments depletes reserves. The longer the conflict continues, the greater the pressure on crude oil prices, inflation, and long-term interest rates. Solvency pressures will increase. A crisis in one sector risks a domino effect on other vulnerable areas.<\/p>\n<p>We maintain our defensive stance, overweight in Gold, defensive stocks, and short-term financial instruments.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CBO: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/61882\">The Budget and Economic Outlook, 2026 to 2036<\/a><\/li>\n<li>HFI Research: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hfir.com\/p\/oil-storage-math-theres-no-hiding\">Oil Storage Math &#8211; There&#8217;s No Hiding Now<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Marcus Nunes: <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/home\/post\/p-198448458\">The Blind Men and the Elephant<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Gita Gopinath: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/hBptZ94Gkzk?si=O5wCUyzW3TDwwfDx\">Keynote Address at the Atlanta Fed<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Thomas Hoenig: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/fMZj-QZNpxc?si=xF7lMgEVaPGRzjk4\">The Inevitable Decline of the Dollar | Former Fed Governor Tom Hoenig<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, driving stock prices and home prices to record highs. But that is about to collide with a global oil shock of unprecedented proportions. The inflationary boom is driven by: Tax cuts from Trump&#8217;s &#8220;Big Beautiful Bill.&#8221; Fed rate cuts. The Fed has two mandates: &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[5374,7307,6622,5648,854,899,7304,4732,1355,7306,6619,7310,7308,7309,3336,3534,7305],"class_list":["post-64651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-case-shiller-20-city-home-price-index","tag-cbo-projections-of-federal-debt-to-gdp","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-core-pce-inflation","tag-cpi","tag-crude-oil-prices","tag-eia-crude-inventory-including-spr","tag-fed-funds-target-rate","tag-fed-total-assets","tag-global-crude-exports","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-iran-war","tag-nyse-financial-composite-index","tag-robert-shillers-sp-500-cape-ratio","tag-tax-cuts","tag-unemployment-rate","tag-us-crude-exports"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, driving stock prices and home prices to record highs. But that is about to collide with a global oil shock of unprecedented proportions. The inflationary boom is driven by: Tax cuts from Trump&#8217;s &#8220;Big Beautiful Bill.&#8221; Fed rate cuts. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock - the patient investor","og_description":"Key Points We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, driving stock prices and home prices to record highs. But that is about to collide with a global oil shock of unprecedented proportions. The inflationary boom is driven by: Tax cuts from Trump&#8217;s &#8220;Big Beautiful Bill.&#8221; Fed rate cuts. The Fed has two mandates: &hellip; Continue reading \"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2026-05-21T11:22:49+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock","datePublished":"2026-05-21T11:22:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/"},"wordCount":908,"commentCount":1,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png","keywords":["Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index","CBO Projections of Federal Debt-to-GDP","Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index","Core PCE Inflation","CPI","crude oil prices","EIA Crude Inventory including SPR","Fed Funds Target Rate","Fed Total Assets","Global Crude Exports","Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)","Iran War","NYSE Financial Composite Index","Robert Shiller's S&amp;P 500 CAPE Ratio","tax cuts","Unemployment Rate","US Crude Exports"],"articleSection":["US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/","name":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png","datePublished":"2026-05-21T11:22:49+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-20-ffr-u3-corepce.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/21\/inflationary-boom-collides-with-global-oil-shock\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Inflationary Boom Collides With Global Oil Shock"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gOL","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":48842,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/21\/will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-response-to-rising-crude-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":0},"title":"Will the Fed cut rates in response to rising crude prices?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The two most important prices in the global economy are crude oil and the 10-year Treasury yield. A sharp spike in either normally causes a recession. Households curb spending as energy costs or borrowing costs take a large bite out of disposable income, leading to falling demand and a recession.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"History of Real Crude Prices: WTI Light Crude\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-21-realcrude-history.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50728,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/04\/brent-crude-approaching-90-gold-at-2300\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":1},"title":"Brent crude approaching $90, Gold at $2300","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ISM Services PMI shows the US economy is expanding but at a slower pace. Brent crude and Gold warn of higher inflation but financial market liquidity is keeping a lid on long-term interest rates. Crude Oil Brent crude continues its advance, reaching $89.43 per barrel on Wednesday. Our medium-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38012,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/08\/energy-and-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":2},"title":"Energy and interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\"...People can't be fed with printed dollars and\u00a0euros. You can\u2019t feed them with those pieces of\u00a0paper, and\u00a0the\u00a0virtual, inflated capitalization of\u00a0western social media companies can\u2019t heat their homes....you can\u2019t feed anyone with paper\u00a0\u2013 you need food; and\u00a0you can\u2019t heat anyone\u2019s home with these inflated capitalizations\u00a0\u2013 you need energy.\" ~ Vladimir Putin,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nord Stream Pipeline Rupture in the Baltic Sea","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-baltic.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-baltic.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-01-baltic.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48273,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/10\/crude-copper-recession-signals\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":3},"title":"Crude &#038; Copper recession signals","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 10, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude prices are rising as risks in the Red Sea force shippers to route cargoes around the southern tip of Africa, increasing transit times and raising costs. Interestingly, Russian and Chinese ships have not diverted, seemingly immune to the threat of a Houthi attack. Nymex light crude breakout above $78\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-10-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63904,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/19\/crude-oil-spikes-but-gold-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":4},"title":"Crude Oil Spikes But Gold Falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 19, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iranian missiles damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG export facility. Brent crude futures spiked to $115 per barrel. The Fed kept the fed funds target rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Gold is testing support at $4,800 per barrel. From CNBC: Qatar said Wednesday that Iranian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-brent4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":39423,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/08\/crude-oil-falls-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":64651,"position":5},"title":"Crude oil falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude broke support at $80 per barrel, warning of a primary decline ahead. Nymex Light Crude similarly broke support at $75 per barrel, closing at $72. In October, the White House released a fact sheet indicating they would buy to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) when prices fell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Base Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Base Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/base-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-08-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-08-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-08-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64651"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64652,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64651\/revisions\/64652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}