{"id":6432,"date":"2012-12-10T03:36:16","date_gmt":"2012-12-10T08:36:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6432"},"modified":"2012-12-10T03:36:16","modified_gmt":"2012-12-10T08:36:16","slug":"pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/10\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis writes about the latest Australian government White Paper <em>Australia in the Asian Century<\/em> that projects an average 7% GDP growth rate for China between 2012 and 2025:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ddddff;\"><p>This seems to put the Australian government among the most optimistic in the market when it comes to long-term growth expectations for China. I have always assumed that government projections should generally be on the pessimistic side to prepare for unexpected negative shocks (positive shocks can take care of themselves), but apparently not. I am glad to say that my own conversations with Australian government officials lead me to believe that this White Paper may represent the official view of the government, but it does not represent the private views of all Australian government officials&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2012\/12\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic\/?utm_source=Media+List&#038;utm_campaign=5118d5684d-RSS_DAILY_MAILCHIMP_CAMPAIGN&#038;utm_medium=email'>Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic | MacroBusiness<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis writes about the latest Australian government White Paper Australia in the Asian Century that projects an average 7% GDP growth rate for China between 2012 and 2025: This seems to put the Australian government among the most optimistic in the market when it comes to long-term growth expectations for China. I have always &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/10\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,5],"tags":[663,1530],"class_list":["post-6432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-economy","tag-china","tag-gdp-projections"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael Pettis writes about the latest Australian government White Paper Australia in the Asian Century that projects an average 7% GDP growth rate for China between 2012 and 2025: This seems to put the Australian government among the most optimistic in the market when it comes to long-term growth expectations for China. I have always &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/10\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-12-10T08:36:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-12-10T08:36:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":136,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"GDP projections\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"China &amp; HK\",\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/\",\"name\":\"Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-12-10T08:36:16+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/10\\\/pettis-australia-should-be-pessimistic-macrobusiness\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Pettis: Australia should be pessimistic &#124; MacroBusiness\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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Their economy never really suffered in the recent debt crisis, in large part due to their growing housing market and their trade with China. If you talk to the average Aussie, they think that all is right with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43889,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/06\/chinas-debt-and-implications-for-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":6432,"position":1},"title":"China&#8217;s debt and implications for Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China remains Australia's biggest export market despite a rapid fall in exports during the COVID pandemic -- in retaliation for Morrison government calls for an inquiry into the cause of the outbreak. Value of LNG exports to Japan have surged, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but China remains our\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Exports by Country","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-05-aus-exports-country.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":61935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/10\/australia-cautiously-pessimistic\/","url_meta":{"origin":6432,"position":2},"title":"Australia: &#8220;cautiously pessimistic&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The ASX 200 threatens a new high But consumer sentiment is low Business conditions are weak Commodity exports are slowing, and so is economic growth ASX 200 earnings are likely to follow The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 8600. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/18\/china-choosing-more-debt-more-unemployment-or-transfers-michael-pettis\/","url_meta":{"origin":6432,"position":3},"title":"China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers | Michael Pettis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 18, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Michael Pettis: I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as it tries to manage through the adjustment process. My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":65482,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/28\/will-the-rba-hike-rates-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":6432,"position":4},"title":"Will the RBA Hike Rates in August?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points RBA Governor Michelle Bullock buoyed markets with her lunchtime comments today. The ASX 200 is headed for another test of 9000. However, June Quarter CPI is due for release on Wednesday. Westpac projects that the Trimmed Mean CPI for the 12 months to June will rise to 3.7%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42439,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/17\/china-recovery-falters\/","url_meta":{"origin":6432,"position":5},"title":"China recovery falters","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China's exports plunged 7.5% year-on-year in May.... https:\/\/youtu.be\/sjegqSfcdWE Westpac tell a similar story: Reversing our perspective and moving a month forward in time to May, China\u2019s trade surplus narrowed to US$65.8bn as exports weakened and imports rose. Exports to the US have declined on a year ago basis every month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Fixed Asset Investment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6432\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}