{"id":64176,"date":"2026-04-20T08:17:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T08:17:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64176"},"modified":"2026-04-20T08:17:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T08:17:34","slug":"dont-chase-the-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/dont-chase-the-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Don&#8217;t Chase the Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance.<\/li>\n<li>However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to the war with Iran.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-17-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<i>[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only]<\/i>\n&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>To find out more <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/\">click here<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The S&amp;P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to the war with Iran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,3761,34],"tags":[898,1113,1124,7048,7272,3010,7171],"class_list":["post-64176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-dow-jones-transportation-average","tag-nasdaq-qqq-etf","tag-sp-1500-transportation-index","tag-sp-500","tag-strait-of-hormuz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Don&#039;t Chase the Rally - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Don&#039;t Chase the Rally - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The S&amp;P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to the war with Iran.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/dont-chase-the-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-20T08:17:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-17-spx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Don&#8217;t Chase the Rally\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-20T08:17:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":470,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-04-17-spx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"crude oil\",\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\",\"Dow Jones Transportation Average\",\"Nasdaq QQQ ETF\",\"S&amp;P 1500 Transportation Index\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Strait of Hormuz\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/\",\"name\":\"Don't Chase the Rally - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-04-17-spx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-20T08:17:34+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-04-17-spx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-04-17-spx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/20\\\/dont-chase-the-rally\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Don&#8217;t Chase the Rally\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":64176,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/loaded-for-bear\/","url_meta":{"origin":64176,"position":2},"title":"Loaded for bear","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump's on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets. Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: \"That's enough! Canadians have had enough. We\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62072,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/","url_meta":{"origin":64176,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/its-a-bear-market-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":64176,"position":4},"title":"It&#8217;s a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq QQQ ETF plunged 3.9% and the Dow lost 890 points on Monday, signaling a bear market. The S&P 500 broke support at 5800 to signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41911, marginally breaking support at 42K. Follow-through below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/plunging-treasury-yields-lift-gold-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":64176,"position":5},"title":"Plunging Treasury yields lift gold but stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields broke support at 4.0%, plunging in anticipation of Fed rate cuts in September. Expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but respect is likely to confirm our medium-term target of 3.8%. Stocks Falling yields failed to lift stocks, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5400. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64176"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64176\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64178,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64176\/revisions\/64178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}