here<\/a> — this time may be different. Flows of new money from central bank balance sheet expansion are likely to find their way into the stock market — and even the housing market — driving up prices. But consumption is lagging with slow growth in employment and average wages. With lackluster sales growth, earnings are likely to remain sluggish. Which means inflated stock market valuations and high price-earnings ratios as stocks are driven into over-bought territory. Not a solid foundation for a sustained recovery but another rung up the ladder of risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"First signs of recovery after a recession are normally rising earnings, initially from corporate cost-cutting but followed up with rising revenues. With massive central bank pump priming — referred to by Mark Mobius here — this time may be different. Flows of new money from central bank balance sheet expansion are likely to find their … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Phoney recovery?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,57],"tags":[800,1154,2751,2818,2827,3026,3630],"class_list":["post-6417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-stock-markets","tag-consumption","tag-earnings","tag-price-earnings-ratios","tag-pump-priming","tag-qe","tag-sales","tag-wages"],"yoast_head":"\nPhoney recovery? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Phoney recovery? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"First signs of recovery after a recession are normally rising earnings, initially from corporate cost-cutting but followed up with rising revenues. 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CAPE uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings in order to smooth out fluctuations in earnings. The current reading of 29.2 is almost double the low during the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Stock Market Capitalization\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-12-mcap-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18217,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/17\/is-the-sp-500-way-over-priced\/","url_meta":{"origin":6417,"position":1},"title":"Is the S&P 500 way over-priced?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE (Price\/10-year simple MA of inflation-adjusted earnings) is at 30.31, the second-highest peak (behind the Dotcom bubble) in 120 years. PEmax (Price\/highest prior 12-month earnings) is far lower at 21.04. I prefer this as a more accurate measure of stock pricing than CAPE. But PEmax is still high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/08\/is-the-market-overpriced-episode-iii\/","url_meta":{"origin":6417,"position":2},"title":"Is the market overpriced? Episode III","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US markets look pricey when we compare market capitalization to GDP. Why is the market ignoring this? The S&P 500 is trading on a reasonable forward Price-Earnings Ratio (PE) of 15.17, but this forecasts a 23% jump in earnings over the next 12 months. Current as reported PE of 18.64\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-08-spx-pe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-08-spx-pe.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-05-08-spx-pe.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13708,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/26\/beware-of-the-cape-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":6417,"position":3},"title":"Beware of the CAPE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have just read John Mauldin's warning that the market is overvalued: Not only does today's CAPE of 25.4x suggest a seriously overvalued market, but the rapid multiple expansion of the last few years coupled with sluggish earnings growth suggests that this market is also seriously overbought, as I pointed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CAPE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9043,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/26\/beware-of-the-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":6417,"position":4},"title":"Beware of the CAPE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have just read John Mauldin's warning that the market is overvalued: Not only does today's CAPE of 25.4x suggest a seriously overvalued market, but the rapid multiple expansion of the last few years coupled with sluggish earnings growth suggests that this market is also seriously overbought, as I pointed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CAPE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43986,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/08\/overpriced-sp-500-ignores-declining-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":6417,"position":5},"title":"Overpriced S&P 500 ignores declining growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio jumped to 2.44 in June -- way above its long-term average of 1.68. Price-earnings ratio (PE) calculated using highest trailing earnings, surged to 22.5 in June -- well above the peaks from earlier crises like October 1929 (Black Friday) and October 1987 (Black Monday). Robert\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Price-to-Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-07-spx--sales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-07-spx--sales.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-07-spx--sales.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-07-spx--sales.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6417\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}