{"id":64061,"date":"2026-04-09T05:38:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:38:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64061"},"modified":"2026-04-17T00:56:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:56:05","slug":"ceasefire-falls-apart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/","title":{"rendered":"Ceasefire Falls Apart"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.<\/li>\n<li>Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation.<\/li>\n<li>Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed.<\/li>\n<li>The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and refining facilities. Iran retaliates with a barrage of missiles and drones.<\/li>\n<li>Ukraine defies calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities.<\/li>\n<li>Brent crude bids for spot delivery at $144 per barrel, but no sellers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<i>[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only]<\/i>\n&#8230;..If you are already a subscriber, please login to continue reading:<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:400px;max-width:90%;margin:auto;\"><div class=\"WishListMember_LoginMergeCode\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form\"><form action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\" class=\"wlm_inpageloginform\">\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"wlm_redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form\">\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"log\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_log\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Password<\/label><span class=\"wishlist-member-login-password\"><input name=\"pwd\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_pwd\" type=\"password\" value=\"\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"dashicons dashicons-visibility\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" class=\" form-checkbox fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\"  value=\"forever\"> Remember Me<\/label><\/div>\n<p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Login\"><\/p>\n\n<p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=lostpassword\">Lost your Password?<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form><\/div><form method=\"post\" action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=wishlistmember-otl\" class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form-otl\" style=\"display: none;\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-notice -permanent\">Please enter your username or email address. 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You will receive an email message with instructions on how to reset your password.<\/div><div class=\"wlm3-form\"><div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"user_login\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_user_login\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div><p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Get New Password\"><\/p><input name=\"action\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_action\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"lostpassword\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=login\">Log in<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p>If you are not a subscriber, to find out more <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/\">click here<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Ceasefire Falls Apart&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,9,13,19,34],"tags":[69,7256,7257,6622,7262,1897,1918,7260,3006,3010,7261,3204,7171,3521,7229,3543],"class_list":["post-64061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-middle-east","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-brent-crude-futures-ice-june26","tag-brent-crude-spot-prices","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-global-manufacturing-prices","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-lebanon","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-saudi-arabias-east-west-pipeline","tag-spot-gold","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-ukraine","tag-united-arab-emirates","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ceasefire Falls Apart - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ceasefire Falls Apart - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gFf","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":64088,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/12\/blockade\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":0},"title":"Blockade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Donald Trump announced a US blockade on Iranian shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the Strait will restrict 20% of the global oil supply.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/ceasefire-but-no-long-term-peace-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":1},"title":"Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Brent crude futures (Jun'26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel. Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Truth Social Post","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64090,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/dire-straits\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":2},"title":"Dire Straits","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 14, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to \"work a deal.\" However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday. The \"genie is out of the bottle,\" and the Gulf states\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Prof. Robert Pape on X","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/28\/us-israel-attack-iran-commodities-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":3},"title":"US &#038; Israel Attack Iran, Commodities Spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US military has begun \"major combat operations\" in Iran. Iran launched missiles at Israel and at several Gulf Arab states that host American bases. Iran warns that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping. Crude oil is expected to spike, along with precious metals and critical\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Airstrikes on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63844,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/12\/iran-get-ready-for-oil-at-200-a-barrel\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":4},"title":"Iran Warns &#8220;Get Ready for Oil at $200 a Barrel&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points One vessel has been set ablaze, and two more were damaged by projectiles, bringing the number of merchant ships damaged since the start of the war to 14. Brent crude futures jumped to above $100 per barrel. Iran's military command warned Washington to \"get ready for oil at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude (ICE May '26 Futures)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-11-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-11-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-11-brent2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64183,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/iran-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":5},"title":"Iran Update","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 20, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, \u200ba senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday. The US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and remains a threat to oil pipelines in the region.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64061"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64147,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061\/revisions\/64147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}