{"id":64061,"date":"2026-04-09T05:38:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T05:38:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=64061"},"modified":"2026-04-17T00:56:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:56:05","slug":"ceasefire-falls-apart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/","title":{"rendered":"Ceasefire Falls Apart"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.<\/li>\n<li>Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation.<\/li>\n<li>Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed.<\/li>\n<li>The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and refining facilities. Iran retaliates with a barrage of missiles and drones.<\/li>\n<li>Ukraine defies calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities.<\/li>\n<li>Brent crude bids for spot delivery at $144 per barrel, but no sellers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<i>[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only]<\/i>\n&#8230;..If you are already a subscriber, please login to continue reading:<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:400px;max-width:90%;margin:auto;\"><div class=\"WishListMember_LoginMergeCode\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form\"><form action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\" class=\"wlm_inpageloginform\">\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"wlm_redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form\">\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"log\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_log\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Password<\/label><span class=\"wishlist-member-login-password\"><input name=\"pwd\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_pwd\" type=\"password\" value=\"\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"dashicons dashicons-visibility\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" class=\" form-checkbox fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\"  value=\"forever\"> Remember Me<\/label><\/div>\n<p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Login\"><\/p>\n\n<p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=lostpassword\">Lost your Password?<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form><\/div><form method=\"post\" action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=wishlistmember-otl\" class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form-otl\" style=\"display: none;\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-notice -permanent\">Please enter your username or email address. 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You will receive an email message with instructions on how to reset your password.<\/div><div class=\"wlm3-form\"><div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"user_login\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_user_login\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div><p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Get New Password\"><\/p><input name=\"action\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_action\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"lostpassword\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=login\">Log in<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p>If you are not a subscriber, to find out more <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/\">click here<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Ceasefire Falls Apart&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[44,6,9,13,19,34],"tags":[69,7256,7257,6622,7262,1897,1918,7260,3006,3010,7261,3204,7171,3521,7229,3543],"class_list":["post-64061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-middle-east","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-brent-crude-futures-ice-june26","tag-brent-crude-spot-prices","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-global-manufacturing-prices","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-lebanon","tag-russia","tag-sp-500","tag-saudi-arabias-east-west-pipeline","tag-spot-gold","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-ukraine","tag-united-arab-emirates","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ceasefire Falls Apart - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ceasefire Falls Apart - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran&#8217;s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gFf","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":64088,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/12\/blockade\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":0},"title":"Blockade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Donald Trump announced a US blockade on Iranian shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Closure of the Strait will restrict 20% of the global oil supply.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-10-brent-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/ceasefire-but-no-long-term-peace-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":1},"title":"Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Brent crude futures (Jun'26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel. Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Truth Social Post","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64821,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/05\/no-further-progress-in-peace-talks\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":2},"title":"No Further Progress in Peace Talks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"President Trump continues to say the US is close to a deal with Iran. However, Iran has signaled that there has been \"no tangible progress\" in negotiations with the US: \u201cNo tangible progress has been achieved in the negotiation process,\u201d Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted as saying by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/DN8gw3TI3kU\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":64781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/02\/us-and-iran-launch-fresh-attacks\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":3},"title":"Ceasefire Unwinds as US and Iran Launch Fresh Attacks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 2, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CNBC says that talks with Iran have stalled: Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran\u2019s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday. The report, in a translated post on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":64090,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/dire-straits\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":4},"title":"Dire Straits","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 14, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to \"work a deal.\" However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday. The \"genie is out of the bottle,\" and the Gulf states\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Prof. Robert Pape on X","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-13-pape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/28\/us-israel-attack-iran-commodities-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":64061,"position":5},"title":"US &#038; Israel Attack Iran, Commodities Spike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The US military has begun \"major combat operations\" in Iran. Iran launched missiles at Israel and at several Gulf Arab states that host American bases. Iran warns that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping. Crude oil is expected to spike, along with precious metals and critical\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Airstrikes on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/us-iran.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64061"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64147,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64061\/revisions\/64147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}