{"id":6400,"date":"2012-12-08T20:35:02","date_gmt":"2012-12-09T01:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6400"},"modified":"2012-12-08T20:35:02","modified_gmt":"2012-12-09T01:35:02","slug":"most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/","title":{"rendered":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Michelle Jamrisko at Bloomberg writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ddddff;\"><p>What [Joshua] Shapiro saw two years ago, and other economists didn\u2019t, is that the healing this time would be slower. He and his firm [NY-based forecasting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.] have been among the more pessimistic forecasters of a U.S. recovery, citing data that show slow growth and relatively high joblessness persisting through 2013. Shapiro predicts the U.S. economy will grow next year by about 1.5 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Shapiro sees monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate at almost zero, as having a limited near-term impact on growth. And he considers the $1 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit an important drag on future expansion.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The uncertain environment should ensure the private sector remains focused on paying down debt rather than expanding investment. And that will ensure that fiscal deficits continue for the foreseeable future. What we need to take into account is how those deficits are funded. If funded by offshore investment from China and Japan, the US manufacturing sector will continue to suffer from an artificially high exchange rate. More likely is Fed funding of the deficit through QE purchases of Treasuries and MBS. That injects new money into the economy, some of which will end up in the stock market. Rising stocks, out-stripping lagging earnings, would take valuations into over-bought territory. Over-valued stocks increase uncertainty, prompting the private sector to repay more debt&#8230;&#8230; As Yogi Berra said: &#8220;It&#8217;s like <em>deja vu<\/em> all over again&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-12-04\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion.html'>Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion | Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michelle Jamrisko at Bloomberg writes: What [Joshua] Shapiro saw two years ago, and other economists didn\u2019t, is that the healing this time would be slower. He and his firm [NY-based forecasting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.] have been among the more pessimistic forecasters of a U.S. recovery, citing data that show slow growth and relatively &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[1527,1990,3558],"class_list":["post-6400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-gdp-growth","tag-joshua-shapiro","tag-us-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michelle Jamrisko at Bloomberg writes: What [Joshua] Shapiro saw two years ago, and other economists didn\u2019t, is that the healing this time would be slower. He and his firm [NY-based forecasting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.] have been among the more pessimistic forecasters of a U.S. recovery, citing data that show slow growth and relatively &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":264,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"GDP growth\",\"Joshua Shapiro\",\"US economy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/\",\"name\":\"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/12\\\/08\\\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor","og_description":"Michelle Jamrisko at Bloomberg writes: What [Joshua] Shapiro saw two years ago, and other economists didn\u2019t, is that the healing this time would be slower. He and his firm [NY-based forecasting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc.] have been among the more pessimistic forecasters of a U.S. recovery, citing data that show slow growth and relatively &hellip; Continue reading \"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg","datePublished":"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/"},"wordCount":264,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["GDP growth","Joshua Shapiro","US economy"],"articleSection":["Economy","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/","name":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-12-09T01:35:02+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/08\/most-accurate-forecaster-sees-lethargic-u-s-expansion-bloomberg\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion &#124; Bloomberg"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1Fe","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8353,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/08\/29\/the-qatar-problem-by-jeremy-shapiro-the-middle-east-channel\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":0},"title":"The Qatar Problem &#8211; By Jeremy Shapiro | The Middle East Channel","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 29, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Jeremy Shapiro at Foreign Policy discusses the role played by Qatar in the Middle East, their expansion of Al-Jazeera into the US, and their support for the Muslim Brotherhood: On the face of it, Qatar has been one of the United States's most valuable allies in the Middle East over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;The Big Picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14749,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/01\/30\/trumps-dumb-war-on-nafta-bloomberg-view\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":1},"title":"Trump&#8217;s Dumb War on Nafta | Bloomberg View","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 30, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg editorial view: America's trade pact with Mexico and Canada reshaped all three economies, creating a highly integrated and competitive economic zone. The evidence is clear that, in the aggregate, this helped American workers -- and not just because Nafta and other free-trade agreements make goods cheaper and promote U.S.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12999,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/14\/the-real-reason-to-worry-about-china-bloomberg-view\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":2},"title":"The Real Reason to Worry About China | Bloomberg View","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"An important reminder from Narayana Kocherlakota: For more than 20 years, China has kept the yuan's value against the dollar in a very tight range. Although the exchange rate isn\u2019t actually pegged (the Chinese currency has appreciated at a rate of about 2 percent per year against the dollar over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":869,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/20\/short-term-stimulus-wont-help-u-s-in-long-run-glenn-hubbard-bloomberg\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":3},"title":"Short-Term Stimulus Won\u2019t Help U.S. in Long Run: Glenn Hubbard &#8211; Bloomberg","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The president\u2019s announced jobs plan centers on the need for additional short-term stimulus designed to boost aggregate demand and jump-start economic growth. In some recession scenarios, such action, if timely, can indeed raise output and employment. In our current state, however, calling for additional spending and temporary tax relief without\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6635,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/05\/cbo-sees-rising-u-s-debt-economic-rebound-in-2014-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":4},"title":"CBO Sees Rising U.S. Debt, Economic Rebound in 2014 &#124; WSJ.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 5, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"DAMIAN PALETTA at WSJ writes: Economic growth and recent legislation have cut the federal budget deficit in half in the past four years, but federal debt will still hit historic levels if more isn't done, the Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday in the annual update of its budget and economic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12558,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/23\/bank-of-america-the-great-divorce-between-the-worlds-two-largest-economies-will-drive-currency-and-rates-markets-in-2016-bloomberg-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":6400,"position":5},"title":"Bank of America: The &#8216;Great Divorce&#8217; Between the World&#8217;s Two Largest Economies","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Luke Kawa at Bloomberg quotes David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch: \"On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6400"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6400\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}