{"id":63995,"date":"2026-04-04T01:52:33","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T01:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63995"},"modified":"2026-04-17T01:15:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T01:15:58","slug":"jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/04\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\/","title":{"rendered":"Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.<\/li>\n<li>The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.<\/li>\n<li>Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.<\/li>\n<li>The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.<\/li>\n<li>Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600\/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.<\/li>\n<li>Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-03-jobs2.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<i>[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only]<\/i>\n&#8230;.. If you are already a subscriber, please login to continue reading:<\/p>\n<div style=\"width:400px;max-width:90%;margin:auto;\"><div class=\"WishListMember_LoginMergeCode\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form\"><form action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\" class=\"wlm_inpageloginform\">\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"wlm_redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"wishlistmember\" \/>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form\">\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"log\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_log\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Password<\/label><span class=\"wishlist-member-login-password\"><input name=\"pwd\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_pwd\" type=\"password\" value=\"\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"dashicons dashicons-visibility\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" class=\" form-checkbox fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\"  value=\"forever\"> Remember Me<\/label><\/div>\n<p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Login\"><\/p>\n\n<p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=lostpassword\">Lost your Password?<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form><\/div><form method=\"post\" action=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=wishlistmember-otl\" class=\"wlm-ajax-login-form-otl\" style=\"display: none;\"><div class=\"wlm-ajax-login-notice -permanent\">Please enter your username or email address. 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You will receive an email message with instructions on how to reset your password.<\/div><div class=\"wlm3-form\"><div class=\"wlm3-form-group\"><label>Username or Email Address<\/label><input name=\"user_login\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_user_login\" type=\"text\" value=\"\"><\/div><p><input name=\"wp-submit\" class=\"\" id=\"wlm_form_field_wp-submit\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Get New Password\"><\/p><input name=\"action\" class=\" wlm3-form-field fld\" id=\"wlm_form_field_action\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"lostpassword\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-login.php?action=login\">Log in<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p>If you are not a subscriber, to find out more <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/\">click here<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year. The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock. Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600\/tonne due to supply &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/04\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5402,4738,5282,44,5342,46,3761,9,13,4547,6106,34],"tags":[69,5115,314,320,5056,495,6622,815,4514,1229,7252,7253,6748,7199,1867,6454,5561,4485,7254,2871,3010,3204,7171,6994,3534,5228,7187],"class_list":["post-63995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-base-metals","category-copper","category-critical-materials","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-cryptocurrency","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-lithium","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-aluminium","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-average-weekly-hours","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-brent-crude","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-copper","tag-critical-materials","tag-employment-growth","tag-energy-crisis","tag-foreign-central-bank-holdings-of-usts","tag-gallium","tag-growth-in-total-hours-worked","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-ism-manufacturing-prices","tag-ism-manufacturing-pmi","tag-lithium","tag-neodymium","tag-real-gdp-growth","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-temporary-employment","tag-unemployment-rate","tag-uranium","tag-us-iran-war"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year. The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock. Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600\/tonne due to supply &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/04\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-04T01:52:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-17T01:15:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-03-jobs2.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/04\\\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/04\\\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-04T01:52:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-17T01:15:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/04\\\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1732,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/04\\\/jobs-rise-but-growth-slows-prices-soar-and-liquidity-tightens\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-04-03-jobs2.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Aluminium\",\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Average Weekly Hours\",\"Bitcoin (BTC)\",\"Brent crude\",\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\",\"Copper\",\"Critical Materials\",\"Employment Growth\",\"Energy Crisis\",\"Foreign Central Bank Holdings of USTs\",\"Gallium\",\"Growth in Total Hours Worked\",\"International Energy Agency\",\"ISM Manufacturing - Prices\",\"ISM Manufacturing PMI\",\"Lithium\",\"Neodymium\",\"Real GDP growth\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Spot Gold\",\"Strait of Hormuz\",\"Temporary Employment\",\"Unemployment Rate\",\"Uranium\",\"US-Iran War\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gEb","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":56301,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/03\/death-of-the-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":0},"title":"Death of the Yen carry trade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets seem convinced that the recent stock sell-off in the US is due to growth concerns -- after a weak labor report. We think they are mistaken. The real cause of the sell-off is the unwinding Yen carry trade. Hedge funds have been making a killing on the Yen carry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USD\/Japanese Yen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-02-jpy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59057,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/06\/trump-comeback\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":1},"title":"Trump comeback","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"According to pundits from The Hill, former President Donald Trump is projected to win the popular vote and sweep the electoral college. That would complete a comeback last achieved 120 years ago by President Grover Cleveland. There is unlikely to be much short-term effect on financial markets, but the long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Trump versus Harris","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":2},"title":"The real risk of a Fed rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control. A rate cut will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Private Sector Jobs","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63326,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/02\/tight-liquidity-and-rising-bond-yields-weigh-on-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":3},"title":"Tight liquidity and rising bond yields weigh on stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Selling pressure on the S&P 500 has increased as liquidity tightens. Ten-year Treasury yields are also rising amid growing pressure on Japanese bond markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2% as the sector continues its long-term contraction. Gold and silver are testing support, but remain in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54240,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/08\/strong-jobs-report-10-year-spikes-gold-plunges\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":4},"title":"Strong jobs report, 10-Year spikes, Gold plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A strong May jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) spooked the bond market, with the prospect of rates staying higher for longer. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked, strengthening the Dollar. The advance on the S&P 500 stalled, while precious metals fell sharply. While Friday was volatile, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-07-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-07-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-07-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55287,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/04\/wall-street-goes-full-costanza\/","url_meta":{"origin":63995,"position":5},"title":"Wall Street goes full-Costanza","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"George Costanza from Seinfeld obviously has many disciples on Wall Street. His logic is clearly evident in the latest response to a weak ISM Services PMI. Stocks rallied in anticipation of an early Fed rate cut, ignoring the warning that the Services sector, the capstone of the economy, is now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"George Costanza from Seinfeld","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2024-07-03-costanza.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63995"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64154,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63995\/revisions\/64154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}