{"id":63994,"date":"2026-04-04T03:56:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T03:56:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63994"},"modified":"2026-04-04T05:18:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T05:18:01","slug":"asx-market-snapshot-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/04\/asx-market-snapshot-19\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Australian monthly building approvals continue their uptrend, with the 3-month moving average at 16.0, above the 20-year moving average, signaling risk-on.<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 Financials Index weakened to 9440, but long tails on weekly candles indicate strong primary support at 9000, and the signal remains risk-on.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing fell dramatically to 78.87 percent, from 84.47 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The All Ordinaries trailing dividend yield has increased to 3.41% as the market corrects, but is way below the 4.5% to 5.0% that would signal a buy opportunity.<\/p>\n

\"All<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing continues to warn of an elevated risk of a drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n