{"id":63957,"date":"2026-03-25T08:46:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T08:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63957"},"modified":"2026-03-25T08:46:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T08:46:25","slug":"australian-cpi-shock-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/25\/australian-cpi-shock-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian CPI Shock Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% for the 12 months to February, down from 3.8% in January 2026.<\/li>\n<li>The average wholesale price of diesel jumped to $2.83 per liter by Friday, March 20, compared to $1.62 in February.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% for the 12 months to February, down from 3.8% in January 2026, while the Trimmed Mean held steady at 3.7%. While above the RBA&#8217;s target of 3.0%, the seasonally adjusted increase of just 0.2% in February offered a glimmer of hope that inflation is easing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C319&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian CPI &amp; Trimmed Mean CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"319\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A breakdown shows that most inflationary pressure comes from non-tradables (5.0%) compared to tradables (1.3%). Tradables are goods and services that are largely influenced by international trade prices, such as auto fuel, most food items, clothing, and footwear. Non-tradables such as household rents, health care, and education are mostly influenced by domestic factors.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-aus-cpi-tradables.png?resize=525%2C319&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian CPI: Tradables &amp; Non-Tradables\" width=\"525\" height=\"319\" \/><br \/>\nHowever, we expect a sharp rise in tradables CPI in March, driven by a massive spike in crude oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>Wholesale diesel prices (TGP) jumped to an average of 283.1 cents per liter by Friday, March 20, compared to an average of 162.3 cents for the week ended February 22\u2014an increase of nearly 75% in just four weeks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-aus-diesel.png?resize=525%2C534&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Diesel TGP &amp; Singapore Gasoil\" width=\"525\" height=\"534\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We expect a steep rise in March CPI, which increases the chance of further rate increases from the RBA.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/consumer-price-index-australia\/latest-release\">Monthly CPI<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP): <a href=\"https:\/\/aip.com.au\/index.php\/pricing\/weekly-diesel-prices-report-week-ending-22-march-2026\">Weekly Diesel Price Report<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% for the 12 months to February, down from 3.8% in January 2026. The average wholesale price of diesel jumped to $2.83 per liter by Friday, March 20, compared to $1.62 in February. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% for the 12 months to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/25\/australian-cpi-shock-ahead\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australian CPI Shock Ahead&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,13],"tags":[6380,7240,7239,5765],"class_list":["post-63957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-inflation-economy","tag-australian-cpi","tag-australian-diesel-tgp","tag-cpi-tradables-non-tradables","tag-trimmed-mean-cpi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian CPI Shock Ahead - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian CPI Shock Ahead - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% for the 12 months to February, down from 3.8% in January 2026. The average wholesale price of diesel jumped to $2.83 per liter by Friday, March 20, compared to $1.62 in February. 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Core CPI declined to 3.9% for the 12 months to February but Trimmed Mean -- the RBA's favorite measure -- increased to 3.9% from 3.8% in January. Changes in February included a 5.1% monthly increase for automotive fuel, compared to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI, Core CPI & Trimmed Mean","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-cpi-core-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-cpi-core-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-27-cpi-core-tm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/30\/australian-cpi-falls-but-no-rate-cuts-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":63957,"position":1},"title":"Australian CPI falls but no rate cuts yet","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The monthly measure of Australian CPI eased to 4.9% for the 12 months to July, below the less-volatile core CPI (5.8%) and trimmed mean (5.6%). The difference between CPI and core CPI mainly reflects a 7.6% fall in automotive fuel prices. A sharp 17.7% increase in diesel prices in August,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI, Core CPI & Trimmed Mean","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54921,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/26\/australia-cpi-alarm\/","url_meta":{"origin":63957,"position":2},"title":"Australia: CPI alarm","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The recent increase in CPI is causing some commentators to panic about more RBA rate hikes. Monthly headline CPI increased to 4.0% for the 12 months to May, compared to a low of 3.4% in February '24. The Trimmed Mean -- favored by the RBA -- jumped to 4.4% from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI Monthly, Trimmed Mean","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-25-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-25-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-25-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":53551,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/29\/australian-cpi-devils-in-the-detail\/","url_meta":{"origin":63957,"position":3},"title":"Australian CPI: Devil&#8217;s in the detail","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures increased in March and April, warning that inflation is likely to prove persistent. But the headline numbers don't tell the full story. The Monthly CPI indicator rose to 3.6% for the 12 months to April 2024, compared to 3.4% in February. The Trimmed Mean\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI, Trimmed Mean and Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42766,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/28\/australia-cpi-easing-wont-stop-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":63957,"position":4},"title":"Australia: CPI easing won&#8217;t stop rate hikes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 28, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia's monthly CPI measure fell to 5.6% for the 12 months to May. Core CPI is more stubborn at 6.4%, while trimmed mean inflation -- the RBA's favorite long-term measure -- came in at 6.1%. Inflation may be easing but is still way above the RBA's 3.0% target. Softer prices\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-28-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44322,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/27\/australian-cpi-bounces\/","url_meta":{"origin":63957,"position":5},"title":"Australian CPI bounces with energy price shock","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian monthly CPI bounced up to 5.2% for the 12 months ended August, from 4.9% in July. The Trimmed Mean held steady at 5.6%, while core CPI (excluding fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel) declined to 5.5% from 5.8% in July. Reason for the bounce was primarily the 9.1% spike in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Monthly CPI, Trimmed Mean & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-26-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63957"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63957\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63958,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63957\/revisions\/63958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}