{"id":63928,"date":"2026-03-23T08:47:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T08:47:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63928"},"modified":"2026-04-08T03:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T03:00:20","slug":"gold-plunges-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Plunges"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Gold is trading at $4,230 per ounce, having breached primary support at $4,400.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Gold breached primary support between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce, triggering further stop-loss selling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There are two primary reasons for the current sell-off:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Gulf states are expected to liquidate reserves, including gold bullion, to support their finances as oil export revenues are curtailed.<\/li>\n<li>Long-term interest rates are rising in anticipation of an inflation spike caused by high energy prices from the Iranian blockade. High interest rates make bonds more attractive and reduce demand for gold.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bullion sales will likely cause a temporary increase in supply, driving down gold prices until reserves are exhausted or Iran&#8217;s blockade of Gulf shipping ends. Demand is likely to increase thereafter as reserves are replenished.<\/p>\n<p>Long-term Treasury yields are rising. Breakout of the 10-year yield above 4.3% indicates another test of resistance between 4.8% and 5.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, rising inflation and long-term interest rates will likely have less influence on gold demand because the two forces tend to offset each other. High inflation increases demand for gold as an inflation hedge, while high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and suppress demand.<\/p>\n<p>Our long-term bullish outlook for gold is based on the belief that precariously high US debt levels will eventually force the Fed to suppress long-term interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>US federal debt jumped to $38.5 trillion at the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-us-federaldebt.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Federal Debt\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ratio of federal debt to nominal GDP is at an unsustainable 122.5%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-us-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Federal Debt to Nominal GDP (%)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the fiscal deficit will likely exceed $2 trillion for the current fiscal year. The deficit for the 5 months to February 2026 is at $1 trillion, but the next few months are about to blow a big hole in the budget.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-18-deficit.png?resize=525%2C262&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Federal Deficit\" width=\"525\" height=\"262\" \/><\/p>\n<p>First, the US Supreme Court has ruled that tariffs implemented by the Trump administration exceed the President&#8217;s constitutional powers, and most of the $144 billion in Customs Duties collected will need to be refunded.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the newly renamed Department of War is about to present Congress with a $200 billion bill for the US war on Iran, so far. The war is only three weeks old, and the final bill will likely be a lot higher.<\/p>\n<p>Third, rising energy prices threaten to crash the stock market. A crash would substantially reduce capital gains, a major component of Individual Income Tax revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, rising interest rates will further widen the ballooning deficit, with accelerating government debt-to-GDP ratios raising risk premia, which in turn drive interest rates even higher.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve would be forced to prioritise the faltering US Treasury over the Dollar, thereby sacrificing its mandate to maintain price stability. Long-anticipated fiscal dominance would mean the Fed suppresses long-term yields to improve the Treasury&#8217;s ability to service its debt. The resulting sharp rise in inflation would undermine the Dollar and boost demand for gold and other inflation hedges.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We expect gold to test support at $4,000 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p>However, our long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with ballooning budget deficits and fiscal dominance likely to cause a steep rise in inflation and erode the purchasing power of the Dollar.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Yardeni Research: <a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/charts\/global-debt-gdp-ratios\/\">Developed Economies Government Debt to GDP<\/a><\/li>\n<li>US Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service: <a href=\"https:\/\/fiscaldata.treasury.gov\/static-data\/published-reports\/mts\/MonthlyTreasuryStatement_202602.pdf\">Monthly Treasury Statement, February 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Gold is trading at $4,230 per ounce, having breached primary support at $4,400. Gold breached primary support between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce, triggering further stop-loss selling. There are two primary reasons for the current sell-off: Gulf states are expected to liquidate reserves, including gold bullion, to support their finances as oil export &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold Plunges&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[4674,512,4228,6425,3204],"class_list":["post-63928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10_year-treasury-yields","tag-budget-deficit","tag-federal-debt","tag-fiscal-dominance","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Plunges - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Plunges - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Gold is trading at $4,230 per ounce, having breached primary support at $4,400. Gold breached primary support between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce, triggering further stop-loss selling. There are two primary reasons for the current sell-off: Gulf states are expected to liquidate reserves, including gold bullion, to support their finances as oil export &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Gold Plunges&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-23T08:47:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-08T03:00:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Gold Plunges\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-23T08:47:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-08T03:00:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\"},\"wordCount\":531,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yields\",\"budget deficit\",\"Federal Debt\",\"Fiscal Dominance\",\"Spot Gold\"],\"articleSection\":[\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\",\"name\":\"Gold Plunges - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-23T08:47:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-08T03:00:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-23-gold3.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/23\/gold-plunges-2\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Gold Plunges\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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The chart below highlights the inverse relationship between gold and real long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield minus CPI YoY%). When LT interest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/16\/tight-liquidity-ahead-of-boj-decision\/","url_meta":{"origin":63928,"position":1},"title":"Tight liquidity ahead of BOJ decision","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Financial markets are on edge ahead of the Bank of Japan policy rate decision on December 18. Bitcoin is testing primary support at 85K, warning of tight liquidity in financial markets. Bank reserves remain below the widely considered $3 trillion minimum required to maintain financial market stability. Financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63862,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/a-gas-station-masquerading-as-an-islamic-republic\/","url_meta":{"origin":63928,"position":2},"title":"A &#8216;Gas Station masquerading as an Islamic Republic&#8217;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent crude futures rose to $103.91 per barrel. A US-owned tanker is ablaze in an Iraqi seaport after an attack by two explosive-laden unmanned boats. The US should consider a total blockade of Iranian crude oil exports to accelerate the regime's collapse, says Robin Brooks. Brent crude (ICE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35005,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/02\/gold-silver-mixed-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":63928,"position":3},"title":"Gold &#038; Silver mixed outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 2, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Silver broke primary support at $22 per ounce, signaling a primary down-trend. Industrial demand for Silver is much greater than with Gold, and is expected to contract if there is a global economic recession. Uncertainty over Gold is high at present, with the metal repeatedly testing support at $1800 per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Silver","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12129,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/06\/gold-oil-ratio-warns-of-further-selling\/","url_meta":{"origin":63928,"position":4},"title":"Gold-Oil ratio warns of further selling","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 6, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Gold-Oil ratio, comparing the price of bullion ($\/ounce) to Brent crude ($\/barrel), has long been used as an indication of whether gold is in a bull or bear market. When the oil price is high, demand for gold, anticipating rising inflation, is normally strong. The current plunge in oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Gold-Oil ratio","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-06-gold-oil.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-06-gold-oil.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-06-gold-oil.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63959,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/26\/why-crude-prices-are-hurting-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":63928,"position":5},"title":"Why Crude Prices are Hurting Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 26, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iran rejects the US ceasefire proposal and makes counterdemands that are unlikely to be accepted. Brent crude futures (May'26) increased to $104.26 per barrel. Gold continues to test support at $4,400 per ounce. High crude prices are driving gold lower, reversing the typical relationship where gold and oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63928"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63928\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64040,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63928\/revisions\/64040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}