{"id":63919,"date":"2026-03-21T07:10:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T07:10:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63919"},"modified":"2026-03-21T07:10:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T07:10:47","slug":"sp-500-bear-market-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/21\/sp-500-bear-market-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 Bear Market Warning"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Brent crude futures (May&#8217;26) rose to $112 per barrel.<\/li>\n<li>10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%.<\/li>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke primary support at 6550.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>WASHINGTON, March 18 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/us-weighs-military-reinforcements-iran-war-enters-possible-new-phase-2026-03-18\/\">Reuters<\/a>) &#8211; President Donald Trump&#8217;s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against \u200bIran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n<p>The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into \u200cits third week.<\/p>\n<p>Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran&#8217;s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.<\/p>\n<p>Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.<\/p>\n<p>The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran&#8217;s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran&#8217;s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. \u200bofficials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>News of preparations for a ground war spooked financial markets.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>CBS News said \u201cheavy preparations\u201d were being made for sending ground troops to Iran, citing multiple sources&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we\u2019re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you\u2019re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,\u201d Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. \u201cQuite frankly, equity markets haven\u2019t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/19\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">CNBC<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Brent crude futures (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@LCO.1\">ICE May&#8217;26<\/a>) climbed above $112 per barrel by the close of the week.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-brent.png?resize=525%2C306&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"306\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ten-year Treasury yields spiked up 4.39%. The breakout above the 4.3% resistance level indicates another test of the 2023 high at 5.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 broke primary support at 6550, warning of a bear market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 45,500. A breach of the support level would confirm the S&amp;P 500 bear market signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) has already broken support at 60, confirming a primary downtrend in the seven mega-cap technology stocks that led the bull market advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-mags.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index jumped to -0.486, the uptick above its preceding peak warning of a contraction in financial market liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The downtrend in Bitcoin<sup>1<\/sup> has warned of a financial market contraction since late last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-20-btc2.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Prepare for a bear market. The Dow will likely break support at 45,500 next week, confirming the S&amp;P 500 bear signal.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/19\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">Stocks tumble Friday as losses mount from Iran war impact, Dow and Nasdaq near correction<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/us-weighs-military-reinforcements-iran-war-enters-possible-new-phase-2026-03-18\/\">US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/trump-struggles-shape-narrative-iran-war-2026-03-19\/\">Trump struggles to shape the narrative on the Iran war<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Brent crude futures (May&#8217;26) rose to $112 per barrel. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%. The S&amp;P 500 broke primary support at 6550. The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession. WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) &#8211; President Donald Trump&#8217;s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/21\/sp-500-bear-market-warning\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 Bear Market Warning&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,5342,6,19,34],"tags":[69,5056,7211,6622,1113,7129,3010],"class_list":["post-63919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-cryptocurrency","category-fixed-income","category-middle-east","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-brent-crude-may26-futures","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-roundhill-magnificent-7-etf-mags","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 Bear Market Warning - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 Bear Market Warning - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Brent crude futures (May&#8217;26) rose to $112 per barrel. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%. The S&amp;P 500 broke primary support at 6550. The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gCX","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63855,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/iran-strait-of-hormuz-must-remain-closed\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":0},"title":"Iran says Strait of Hormuz must remain closed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iran indicates it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. Brent crude futures test resistance at $100 per barrel. The S&P 500 broke support at 6700. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-12-brent3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-12-brent3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-12-brent3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63962,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/no-quick-exit\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":1},"title":"No Quick Exit","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent crude futures (May'26) rose after President Trump paused his threatened attack on Iran's energy facilities until April 6. The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550. The Dollar strengthens with the prospect of higher interest rates. Gold tests primary support at $4,400 per ounce. Brent crude rallied\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-26-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-26-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-26-brent4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63987,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/01\/april-fools-day\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":2},"title":"April Fools Day","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump says, \"We'll be leaving very soon.\" Crude oil futures plunged to test support at $100 per barrel. The S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, testing resistance at 6550. Gold broke resistance at $4,600 per ounce. Crude oil prices plunged, and stocks and gold rallied on President Trump's hint\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64061,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":3},"title":"Ceasefire Falls Apart","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran's lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. The United Arab Emirates carried out air\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"UAE Air Strike on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-08-uae.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":64042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/ceasefire-but-no-long-term-peace-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":4},"title":"Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Brent crude futures (Jun'26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel. Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Truth Social Post","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63970,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/28\/dow-signals-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":63919,"position":5},"title":"Dow Signals a Bear Market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Intelligence sources say Iran's missile and drone arsenal is not depleted. Brent crude futures rose to $114.27 per barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the S&P 500 in signaling a bear market. WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - The United States can only determine with certainty that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-27-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-27-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-27-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63919"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63921,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63919\/revisions\/63921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}