{"id":63873,"date":"2026-03-14T07:46:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T07:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63873"},"modified":"2026-03-14T07:46:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T07:46:45","slug":"us-market-snapshot-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/14\/us-market-snapshot-15\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead, with three of five indicators signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 has crossed below its 50-week moving average, but has yet to test primary support at 6550. Twiggs Smoothed Momentum (30-week) is also declining but has yet to cross below zero, which would signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Also, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index rose to -0.514 last week. Financial conditions are tightening, but still some way from the -0.40 that would signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased to 94.60 percent from 98.64 percent last week. The steep change is primarily due to a break in the series. We have replaced the Price-to-Sales ratio and Forward Price-Earnings Ratio for the S&P 500 with similar series for the Dow Jones Industrial Index. However, there is one notable difference: we use a 20% trimmed mean, which excludes the top 10% and bottom 10% of readings for individual stocks, to minimize distortion from outliers in the smaller index population of 30 stocks. The reading remains extreme, warning of a significant drawdown in stocks.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher the stock market price measure is relative to the historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (with a 20% trimmed mean) at 21.87 remains the highest over the past 7 years.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

The Forward Price-to-Sales Ratio for the Dow Jones Industrial 30 (with 20% trimmed mean) remains below its 2021 and 2022 readings of 3.96 and 3.99, respectively.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels indicate an elevated risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n