{"id":6386,"date":"2012-12-06T13:46:58","date_gmt":"2012-12-06T18:46:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6386"},"modified":"2012-12-06T13:46:58","modified_gmt":"2012-12-06T18:46:58","slug":"goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Matthew Boesler\twrites that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn&#8217;t mean investors can&#8217;t still make money.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ddddff;\"><p>Currie&#8217;s explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to invest in new technologies that help them to harvest more commodities, because they can sell them in the current market for high prices. However, those new technologies have the effect of relieving long-term supply constraints, because the world will be able to use them to access previously unaccessable energy resources, shale oil being just one example.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If Currie is right, returns will be &#8220;generated more by the backwardation in the term structure and less by price appreciation&#8221;. That means that investors can profit from rolling current contracts into consecutively cheaper future contracts. But it also means a bear market in resources stocks as commodity prices fall.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/goldman-the-old-economy-renaissance-is-about-to-offer-opportunities-for-commodity-investors-not-seen-since-the-1990s-2012-12'>GOLDMAN: The &#039;Old Economy Renaissance&#039; Is About To Offer Opportunities For Commodity Investors Not Seen Since The 1990s &#8211; Business Insider<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matthew Boesler writes that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn&#8217;t mean investors can&#8217;t still make money. Currie&#8217;s explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to invest in new technologies that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Goldman predicts falling commodity prices&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,57],"tags":[329,747,1498],"class_list":["post-6386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-backwardation","tag-commodities-2","tag-futures-contracts"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Goldman predicts falling commodity prices - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Matthew Boesler writes that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn&#8217;t mean investors can&#8217;t still make money. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Currie&#8217;s explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to invest in new technologies that &hellip; Continue reading \"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2012-12-06T18:46:58+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices","datePublished":"2012-12-06T18:46:58+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/"},"wordCount":182,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["backwardation","Commodities","futures contracts"],"articleSection":["Gold &amp; Commodities","Stock Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/","name":"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-12-06T18:46:58+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1F0","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":7452,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/10\/time-to-short-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":0},"title":"Time to short Gold?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 10, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Quartz reports that Goldman Sachs recommend investors sell gold short: Now Goldman Sachs commodities analysts suggest the selloff in the yellow metal could be about to gain momentum. In a research note Wednesday they write not even the stress over Cyprus could generate much of a rally in gold prices.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4262,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/03\/commodity-and-stock-prices-diverge\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":1},"title":"Commodity and stock prices diverge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"We had an interesting discussion last week about the correlation between commodities and stocks. The weekly chart below shows how CRB Commodities Index closely tracks the S&P 500 -- except in times of extreme volatility like 2007\/2008. We\u00a0 are now witnessing another divergence, with the CRB headed for a test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/13\/silver-backwardation\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":2},"title":"Silver backwardation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Silver futures are in backwardation for the fourth time on record, according to this chart from Silver Gold News. Backwardation is when spot prices are higher than longer term futures and suggests that there is a supply shortage in the physical spot market. The price difference is still small but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9121,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/05\/commodity-prices-effect-on-corporate-profits\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":3},"title":"Commodity prices effect on corporate profits","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 5, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Sharp spikes in the US Industrial Commodities PPI (producer price index) often precede a drop in Corporate Profits (expressed below as a ratio to GDP). And sharp falls in the PPI tend to precipitate a surge in profits. The 5-year chart above shows PPI growth close to zero since 2012.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI - 5 Years","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/corpprofits-industrialppi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/corpprofits-industrialppi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/corpprofits-industrialppi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/commodities-weaken-on-soft-demand\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":4},"title":"Commodities weaken on soft demand","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices fell sharply in July, especially Brent Crude [pink] which is testing support at $104\/$106 per barrel. Breach of that support level, or $98\/$100 for Nymex Light Crude, would signal a primary down-trend. Commodity prices have weakened in sympathy, with Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index falling sharply since breaking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19673,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/global-commodities-economic-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":6386,"position":5},"title":"Commodities &#038; Global Growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodity prices warn that the global economy is still in a slump. The Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index remains at one-third of its 2007 peak, with no sign of recovery. The fall in crude prices hasn't been as severe, but Brent Crude is again weakening and looks set for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6386\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}