{"id":63813,"date":"2026-03-07T23:28:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T23:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63813"},"modified":"2026-03-08T04:08:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T04:08:04","slug":"the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/07\/the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape\/","title":{"rendered":"The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change.<\/p>\n<p>He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. We are distracted by the success of precision air strikes, but they cause escalation, and we don&#8217;t see the long war coming.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rBvuJ4XabIk?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgement<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Robert Pape, The Escalation Trap: <a href=\"https:\/\/escalationtrap.substack.com\/p\/victory-narrative-vs-escalation-reality\">Victory Narrative vs. Escalation Reality<\/a> &#8211; When regimes are decapitated from the air, wars rarely end. They widen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221; Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change. He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. We are distracted by the success of precision air strikes, but they cause escalation, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/07\/the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,29,34],"tags":[7197,7198],"class_list":["post-63813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-air-power-campaigns","tag-the-smart-bomb-illusion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221; Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change. He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. 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Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. 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Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals resumption of the primary up-trend.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44581,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/09\/thoughts-on-israel\/","url_meta":{"origin":63813,"position":4},"title":"Thoughts on Israel","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We express our sympathy for the people of Israel who have suffered a brutal attack from HAMAS and its backers. An act of such barbarity is bound to evoke a response and lead to further escalation of violence in the region. But that seems to be the intention. Martin Indyk,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Middle East&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Middle East","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30946,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/12\/nasdaq-gold-its-crunch-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":63813,"position":5},"title":"Nasdaq &#038; Gold: It&#8217;s crunch time","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It seems the hawkish view on interest rates lasted no more than 36 hours. 10-Year Treasury yields fell sharply, reversing their gains from Thursday. Gold broke resistance at $1850 per ounce, signaling a test of $1900. Rising Trend Index troughs continue to indicate buying pressure. Silver rallied, with a Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-11-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63813"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63822,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63813\/revisions\/63822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}