{"id":63813,"date":"2026-03-07T23:28:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T23:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63813"},"modified":"2026-03-08T04:08:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T04:08:04","slug":"the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/07\/the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape\/","title":{"rendered":"The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change.<\/p>\n<p>He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. We are distracted by the success of precision air strikes, but they cause escalation, and we don&#8217;t see the long war coming.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rBvuJ4XabIk?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgement<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Robert Pape, The Escalation Trap: <a href=\"https:\/\/escalationtrap.substack.com\/p\/victory-narrative-vs-escalation-reality\">Victory Narrative vs. Escalation Reality<\/a> &#8211; When regimes are decapitated from the air, wars rarely end. They widen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221; Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change. He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. We are distracted by the success of precision air strikes, but they cause escalation, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/07\/the-escalation-trap-prof-robert-pape\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,29,34],"tags":[7197,7198],"class_list":["post-63813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-air-power-campaigns","tag-the-smart-bomb-illusion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Escalation Trap | Prof. Robert Pape - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;We don&#8217;t have a strategy to win.&#8221; Air power expert, Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago), says air power campaigns don&#8217;t effect regime change. He warns of the &#8220;smart bomb illusion,&#8221; where precision targeting gives the illusion of control over escalation. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Couldn't a couple aggressive*, unexpected actions ruin the opposing sides' plans, crush their timetable, make their political calculations obsolete, destroy their confidence in their ability to predict your government's reactions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30325,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/08\/never-waste-a-good-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":63813,"position":1},"title":"Never waste a good crisis","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 8, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Russian Federation has amassed a large army on the border of Ukraine and threatens to invade unless the US and NATO make concessions including the withdrawal of forces from Eastern Europe, securing Moscow a broad sphere of influence. 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