{"id":63811,"date":"2026-03-07T08:49:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T08:49:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63811"},"modified":"2026-03-07T08:49:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T08:49:16","slug":"us-market-snapshot-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/07\/us-market-snapshot-14\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead, with three of five indicators signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

Heavy truck sales declined to 26,000 units in February. The 12-month average of 33,600 has fallen more than 10%, signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Employment in cyclical sectors declined by 260,000. The combined payroll for Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation & Warehousing fell to 27.41 million in February from 27.67 million in September 2024. A decline of 300,000 would signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Cyclical<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to 98.64 percent, from the high of 98.87 percent two weeks ago, well above the April 2025 low of 95.04 percent. The extreme pricing warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher the stock market price measure is relative to the historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 38.2 times the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings, as stock prices eased.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels indicate the elevated risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n