{"id":63683,"date":"2026-02-21T09:20:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T09:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63683"},"modified":"2026-02-21T09:20:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T09:20:38","slug":"us-market-snapshot-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/21\/us-market-snapshot-12\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead, with three of five indicators signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

Heavy truck sales were revised down to 28,300 units in January, from an earlier estimate of 34,500. Declining investment in new trucks reflects a lack of participants’ confidence in the transportation sector, indicating slowing economic activity.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

We have had to exclude the Forward PE valuation for the S&P 500 as S&P Dow Jones no longer provides forward estimates of earnings.<\/p>\n

Our average stock pricing score increased to a new high of 98.87 percent, compared with the October 2025 high of 98.66 percent and the April 2025 low of 95.04 percent. The extreme pricing warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher the stock market price measure is relative to the historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 index is at a PE ratio of 29.4 times highest trailing earnings. Before 1996, during the Dotcom bubble, the ratio had never exceeded 20-times earnings in almost 100 years, even during the peaks prior to the October 1929 crash and Black Monday in October 1987.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels indicate an elevated risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n