{"id":63534,"date":"2026-01-31T11:31:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T11:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63534"},"modified":"2026-01-31T11:31:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T11:31:06","slug":"us-market-snapshot-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/31\/us-market-snapshot-9\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead, with three of five indicators signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Fed eased to -0.60, indicating loose financial conditions similar to 2021. However, Bitcoin’s fall below $85,000 suggests that financial markets are becoming\u00a0increasingly risk-averse<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Continued unemployment claims slumped to 1.827 million, confirming the recent fall in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Both measures are below the typical threshold for a recession.<\/p>\n

\"Continued<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing increased to 98.19 percent from 98.15 percent last week, close to the October high of 98.66, compared with a low of 95.04 percent in April. The extreme pricing warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels increase the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n