{"id":63481,"date":"2026-01-18T03:28:34","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T03:28:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63481"},"modified":"2026-01-18T04:56:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T04:56:07","slug":"asx-market-snapshot-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/18\/asx-market-snapshot-8\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator fell to 56%, from 66% last week, indicating a mild bear market. Three of four Australian indicators signal a risk-on stance, while one of our two Chinese indicators has fallen to a risk-off signal. When combined with the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator has eased to 56%, signaling a mild bear market.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China declined to 98.96, below the 99.0 threshold, signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"OECD<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing jumped to 83.24 percent from 80.82 percent last week, still roughly mid-range between the August high of 92.23 percent and the April low of 67.85 percent.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The All Ordinaries Dividend Yield is at a low 3.17% compared to its 45-year average of 4.09%, indicating that stocks are highly-priced.<\/p>\n

\"All<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator declined to 56%, signaling a mild bear market on signs that the Chinese economy is slowing. Stock market pricing remains extreme, indicating increased risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n