{"id":63464,"date":"2026-01-11T13:14:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T13:14:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63464"},"modified":"2026-01-11T13:14:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T13:14:09","slug":"us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/","title":{"rendered":"US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, but employment in cyclical sectors is contracting, indicating a slowing economy.<\/li>\n<li>Declining cyclical indicators for housing, manufacturing, and transportation, and a declining Coincident Economic Activity Index, also warn of an economic slowdown.<\/li>\n<li>Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual rate of nearly 4.0%, above the federal funds target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, suggesting that the Fed expects an economic contraction.<\/li>\n<li>Small-caps are outperforming mega-cap technology stocks, which is typical of the final stage of a bull market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, the eighth consecutive month of dismal nonfarm payroll growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Excluding government layoffs makes little difference to poor job growth. Private-sector jobs excluding healthcare grew by only 15,900 in December.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs-x-health-gov.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth: Private Sector excluding Health Care\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Cyclical sectors \u2014 manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing \u2014 account for 17% of total nonfarm employment in the US but are typically responsible for most job losses during a recession. The sectors have shed 164,000 jobs since their February 2025 peak, indicating that the economy is slowing. A drop of 300,000 would signal a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-cyclical-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment in Cyclical Sectors: Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport &amp; Warehousing\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The unemployment rate, based on the monthly household survey, declined to 4.4% in December, below the typical 5.0% minimum during\u00a0a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, employers are cutting back employees&#8217; hours. Average weekly hours worked declined to 34.2 in December, a sign that layoffs are likely to follow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-weekly-hours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Weekly Hours\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employers are also cutting back on temporary help services, another typical sign of a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-temp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temporary Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Average Hourly Earnings and Fed Monetary Policy<\/h2>\n<p>Average hourly earnings grew at an annualized rate of 3.9% in December, compared to a 3-month average of 4.0%, a 6-month average of 3.9%, and a 12-month average of 3.8%. Growth rates are nearly double the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2.0% inflation target, reflecting underlying inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-wages.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fed monetary policy is becoming stimulative, with average earnings growth now exceeding the latest Fed funds rate (FFR) target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, suggesting a negative real Fed funds rate. Monetary policy is restrictive (beige below) when FFR is higher than average earnings growth, and stimulative (green) when FFR is lower.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-realffr.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Rate &amp; Average Hourly Earnings Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Stimulative monetary policy risks fueling inflation if not offset by deflationary pressures from a contracting economy.<\/p>\n<h2>Consumers<\/h2>\n<p>Residential housing construction is a major cyclical employer, and declining new housing starts and permits signal an impending economic contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-housing-starts-permits.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Housing New Starts &amp; Permits\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment provides another recession warning, with the 3-month average at a record low since the survey commenced in 1960.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment\" width=\"525\" height=\"358\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Index of Current Economic Conditions is similarly at its lowest level in the past 65 years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-uom-conditions.png?resize=525%2C358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions\" width=\"525\" height=\"358\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inflation expectations remain elevated, averaging 4.3%, more than double the Federal Reserve&#8217;s target rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-uom-prices-1y.png?resize=525%2C358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: 1-Year Inflation Expectations\" width=\"525\" height=\"358\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Economy<\/h2>\n<p>Aggregate weekly hours worked grew by 0.6% in 2025, suggesting that real GDP growth will likely decline from the 2.3% year-on-year growth in Q3 of last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP &amp; Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Philadelphia Fed Index of Coincident Economic Activity grew by 2.15% over the 12 twelve months to November 2025. Values below 2.5% warn of a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-coincident.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Heavy truck sales are also declining, with the 12-month moving average falling to 34.0 thousand units. The decline of more than 10% from the October 2023 high of 43.0 thousand indicates a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-09-heavytrucks.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Heavy Truck Sales\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>ISM Manufacturing<\/h2>\n<p>The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9% in December, the tenth consecutive month of contraction in the sector.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-ism-mnfg-pmi.png?resize=525%2C301&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Manufacturing PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"301\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New orders declined to 47.7% for the sector, indicating a deteriorating outlook.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-ism-mnfg-neworders.png?resize=525%2C264&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Manufacturing New Orders\" width=\"525\" height=\"264\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Prices Index declined to 58.5%, indicating continued growth in producer prices, although the rate has slowed from the first half of 2025.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-ism-mnfg-prices.png?resize=525%2C265&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Manufacturing Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"265\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>ISM Services<\/h2>\n<p>The large services sector continues to expand, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.4% in December.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=525%2C310&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"310\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the Prices Index, at a strong 64.3% in December, indicates that inflationary pressures remain a problem.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-ism-services-prices.png?resize=525%2C265&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"265\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Commercial bank reserves recovered to $3.0 trillion, reflecting improved liquidity in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Increased Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury bills under the new Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) program helped bolster bank reserves.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>When the Fed made that announcement in December, it said that RMPs for the month from December 12 to January 12 would amount to $40 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed will announce in a few days the amount of the RMPs to be purchased during the next 30-day period. The amounts will vary by season. The Fed is currently frontloading for April 15 Tax Day, when big liquidity strains are expected. (<a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2026\/01\/08\/fed-balance-sheet-drops-by-67-billion-for-the-week-standing-repo-facility-75-billion-to-zero-reserve-management-purchases-8-billion\/\">Wolf Richter<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Fed&#8217;s balance sheet expanded for the first time since 2023, driven by RMPs and a $75 billion increase in the standing repo facility (SRF) on December 31 to support repo market liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-fedassets.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Most of the SRF was repaid the following week, but the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) still warns of liquidity shortages. An SOFR above the interest rate paid by the Fed on reserve balances (IORB) indicates that the Repo market is prepared to pay a premium to attract funding from commercial banks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-sofr.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) &amp; Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A decline of more than $150 billion in the Treasury General Account at the Fed also helped boost liquidity over the year-end period.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-tga.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Liabilities: Treasury General Account (TGA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Fed continues to indicate loose monetary conditions, declining to -0.5536 on January 2.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A Bitcoin (BTC) recovery above 90,000 also indicates improving liquidity in financial markets. The volatile cryptocurrency is retracing to test the new support level, and respect of 90,000 would confirm improving monetary conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 reached a new high, testing resistance at 7000, but declining Trend Index peaks continue to warn of secondary selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-spx2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) reversed its uptrend relative to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), indicating that small-cap stocks are now outperforming mega-cap technology stocks. Market leaders falling behind and no longer leading advances is a typical sign of the final stage of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-mags-iwm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) relative to iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The labor market reports dismal job growth in December, but cyclical sectors of the US economy are shedding jobs, warning of an economic contraction ahead. A decline in average weekly hours worked and in temporary help services indicates that employers are tightening their belts, and layoffs will likely follow.<\/p>\n<p>Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual rate of nearly 4.0% while the federal funds target range is 3.5% to 3.75%. Fed monetary policy risks fueling inflation if not offset by deflationary pressures, indicating that the central bank expects an economic contraction.<\/p>\n<p>Declining cyclical sector indicators, including new housing starts, heavy truck sales, and a tenth consecutive month of contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, all warn of a slowing economy. This bearish outlook is also supported by a slowing Coincident Economic Activity Index and weak annual growth in aggregate hours worked.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed and the US Treasury are doing their best to support financial market liquidity, but Bitcoin at 90,000 continues to warn of weak liquidity.<\/p>\n<p>Small-cap stocks are now outperforming mega-cap technology stocks, a pattern typical of the final stage of a bull market, suggesting that the S&amp;P 500 may struggle to break the 7000 resistance level.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Institute for Supply Management: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/\">ISM Report on Business<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Consumer Surveys<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wolf Richter: <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2026\/01\/08\/fed-balance-sheet-drops-by-67-billion-for-the-week-standing-repo-facility-75-billion-to-zero-reserve-management-purchases-8-billion\/\">Fed Balance Sheet Drops by $67 Billion for the\u00a0<\/a>week<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, but employment in cyclical sectors is contracting, indicating a slowing economy. Declining cyclical indicators for housing, manufacturing, and transportation, and a declining Coincident Economic Activity Index, also warn of an economic slowdown. Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual rate of nearly 4.0%, above &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,46,6,3761,10,34],"tags":[6256,314,321,5056,6622,6273,6528,1227,1355,6662,6541,6454,5882,5561,6459,5855,5718,2109,2870,6593,3010,7009,4934,3534,6670,5068],"class_list":["post-63464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-aggregate-weekly-hours-worked","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-average-weekly-hours-worked","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-commercial-bank-reserves-at-the-fed","tag-cyclical-sector-employment","tag-employment","tag-fed-total-assets","tag-housing-new-starts-permits","tag-inflation-expectations-1-year","tag-ism-manufacturing-prices","tag-ism-manufacturing-new-orders","tag-ism-manufacturing-pmi","tag-ism-services-prices","tag-ism-services-pmi","tag-labor-market","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-real-gdp","tag-russell-2000-small-cap-etf-iwm","tag-sp-500","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-tga-account","tag-unemployment-rate","tag-university-of-michigan-current-economic-conditions","tag-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, but employment in cyclical sectors is contracting, indicating a slowing economy. Declining cyclical indicators for housing, manufacturing, and transportation, and a declining Coincident Economic Activity Index, also warn of an economic slowdown. Average hourly earnings are growing at an annual rate of nearly 4.0%, above &hellip; Continue reading &quot;US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-11T13:14:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"US Labor Market and Cyclical Sectors Warn of a Contraction\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-11T13:14:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/\"},\"wordCount\":1148,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/11\/us-labor-market-and-cyclical-sectors-warn-of-a-contraction\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-10-jobs.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Aggregate Weekly Hours Worked\",\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Average Weekly Hours Worked\",\"Bitcoin (BTC)\",\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\",\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\",\"Cyclical Sector Employment\",\"Employment\",\"Fed Total Assets\",\"Housing New Starts &amp; 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Stocks reacted negatively, but gold seemed unfazed. The US economy shows slow but steady growth, with total weekly hours worked growing at an annual rate of 1.0% compared to real GDP at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP & Total Hours Worked","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61592,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/06\/dont-be-fooled-by-april-jobs-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":63464,"position":1},"title":"Don&#8217;t be fooled by April jobs growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 rally lacks momentum Financial markets warn of credit tightening April labor report is not as strong as it seems US manufacturing is slowing and prices are rising Gold is rallying as the dollar weakens A robust April jobs report boosted stocks on Friday, but enthusiasm soon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41977,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/06\/strong-jobs-growth-suggest-more-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":63464,"position":2},"title":"Strong jobs growth suggest more rate hikes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed hike of the funds rate target, to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% on May 3, was widely viewed as the last hike before a pause. But a strong April jobs report warns of further hikes ahead, or at least, a longer pause. The BLS report shows jobs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-05-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62088,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/04\/stocks-surge-despite-the-big-beautiful-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":63464,"position":3},"title":"Stocks surge despite Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The US economy added 147K jobs in June, causing a surge in the S&P 500 The solid jobs report also caused a jump in long-term Treasury yields as prospects fade for a Fed rate cut The dollar found support, with gold weakening as a result Congress passed President Trump's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58104,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/05\/job-rise-spikes-treasury-yields\/","url_meta":{"origin":63464,"position":4},"title":"Job rise spikes Treasury yields","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A surprise jobs increase in the September BLS Employment report caused a spike in long-term Treasury yields as the bond market pared expectations of Fed rate cuts. Stocks continued unfazed, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.0%, while precious metals held steady near previous highs. Crude rallied on the threat to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63015,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/06\/freightwaves-warning-on-us-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":63464,"position":5},"title":"Freightwaves warning on US economy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller warns that the fall in manufacturing demand is at \"global financial crisis levels of concern.\" The ISM Services PMI indicates that the services sector is still expanding, but prices are soaring. FreightWaves collects realtime data on freight activity in the US economy. CEO Craig\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ISM Services PMI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-05-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-05-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-05-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63464"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63464\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63466,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63464\/revisions\/63466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}