{"id":63376,"date":"2025-12-13T01:40:50","date_gmt":"2025-12-13T01:40:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63376"},"modified":"2025-12-13T01:40:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T01:40:50","slug":"us-market-snapshot-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/13\/us-market-snapshot-2\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current stock market valuation. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead. One labor market data indicator (highlighted in orange below) remains delayed due to the recent U.S. government shutdown.<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

Continued unemployment claims declined to 1.838 million, seasonally adjusted. No explanation was provided for the sharp fall, with Wolf Richter attributing it to problems with seasonal adjustments and the holiday season. Unadjusted data show a similar decline in the last week but a year-on-year increase of 43K (2.5%).<\/p>\n

\"Continued<\/p>\n

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined -0.546 on December 5, indicating loose monetary conditions that support high stock prices.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

However, Bitcoin is still testing support at 90,000. The cryptocurrency provides an up-to-date view of liquidity, and a fall below 85,000 would warn of another financial market contraction.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to 98.48 percent from 98.55 percent last week, compared to a high of 98.66 percent in late October and a low of 95.04 percent in April. The extreme pricing warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% signals a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels increase the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n