{"id":63364,"date":"2025-12-13T00:57:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-13T00:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63364"},"modified":"2025-12-13T00:57:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T00:57:37","slug":"asx-market-snapshot-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/13\/asx-market-snapshot-3\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 66%, up from 56% five weeks ago. Three of four indicators from Australia and two from China indicate a risk-on stance, with a combined 60% weighting, while the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which accounts for the remaining 40%, is more bearish.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

NAB forward orders declined to 1, while the 3-month moving average (0.67) remains above the risk-off threshold of zero.<\/p>\n

\"Australia:<\/p>\n

China’s OECD composite leading indicator declined to 99.17 for November, slightly above the 99 threshold for a risk-off signal.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing increased to 80.70 percent from 80.24 percent last week, compared with the August high of 92.23 percent and the April low of 67.85 percent.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator is in a mild bull market. Leading indicators are declining, but in most cases, remain above the risk-off threshold. Valuation is also extreme despite the decline from the August high.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n