{"id":63343,"date":"2025-12-06T07:49:39","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T07:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63343"},"modified":"2025-12-06T07:49:39","modified_gmt":"2025-12-06T07:49:39","slug":"asx-market-snapshot-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/06\/asx-market-snapshot-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks when the market valuation is high, but advise caution when adding new positions.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 66%, up from 56% four weeks ago. Three of four indicators from Australia and two from China indicate a risk-on stance, with a combined 60% weighting, while the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which makes up the balance, is at 40% risk-on.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Australian building approvals for private dwellings remain above their long-term moving average, with the 3-month moving average at 15,600 in October.<\/p>\n

\"Australia:<\/p>\n

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2 in November, also above the 49.0 threshold for a risk-off warning.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing declined to 80.24 percent, compared with the August high of 92.23 percent and the April low of 67.85 percent.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The All Ordinaries dividend yield is at a low 3.18%, just above the 3.0% level typical of an overpriced market.<\/p>\n

\"All<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator remains in a mild bull market, with China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI holding above its signal line. Valuation is declining after reaching a new extreme, but the risk of a significant drawdown remains high.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n