{"id":63338,"date":"2025-12-04T08:10:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T08:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63338"},"modified":"2025-12-04T08:25:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T08:25:16","slug":"the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"The real risk of a Fed rate cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November.<\/li>\n<li>Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10.<\/li>\n<li>ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control.<\/li>\n<li>A rate cut will likely weaken the Dollar, increase demand for real assets, and drive up long-term yields.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The ADP National Employment report estimates that the economy lost 32,000 jobs in November, the 3-month moving average turning negative for the first time since the height of the pandemic in August 2020.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=525%2C289&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ADP Private Sector Jobs\" width=\"525\" height=\"289\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Losses are heavily weighted toward small firms, which have taken a hit from tariffs, shedding 120,000 jobs in November, while mid-sized firms added 51,000 jobs and large firms 39,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national-smallfirms.png?resize=525%2C123&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ADP Private Sector Jobs\" width=\"525\" height=\"123\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut on December 10 in response to weak jobs data. Markets are pricing in an 89% probability of a cut, with the discount rate on 13-week T-Bills falling below the Fed&#8217;s current 3.75% to 4.00% target range for the fed funds rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-irx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"3-Month T-Bill Discount Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Other parts of the economy remain resilient, with the ISM Services PMI increasing to 52.6% for November, well above the 48.6% breakeven level typical of past contractions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=525%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"313\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New orders also signal expansion, but the rate slowed to 52.9%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-ism-services-neworders.png?resize=525%2C268&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services New Orders\" width=\"525\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employment has improved over the past four months, but remains in a contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-ism-services-jobs.png?resize=525%2C268&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Most importantly, from the Fed&#8217;s perspective, 65.4% of enterprises reported increased prices, down from 70% in October but still reflecting strong inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-ism-services-prices.png?resize=525%2C268&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Manufacturing sector reported similar price rises in November, though the rate of increase is slowing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-ism-mnfg-prices.png?resize=525%2C268&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Manufacturing Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index edged higher to -0.522 for the week ending November 21.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Dynamic indicators, however, like Bitcoin below, continue to warn of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The secure overnight financing rate (SOFR) jumped to 4.12%, above the 4.0% rate the Fed charges on its standing repo facility (SRF), signaling that the Fed is struggling to control pricing in the $12 trillion repo market. Repo lending is primarily secured by US Treasury Bills and Notes, and a spike in the SOFR repo rate would trigger a sharp sell-off in the Treasury market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-sofr.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) &amp; Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rising long-term yields in Japan and Europe are sucking liquidity out of US financial markets. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is also expected to hike its policy rate on December 18, with the 3-month Japanese Government Bill discount rate jumping to 0.633%, well above the current 0.50% policy rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-jp3m.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Japanese Govt 3-Month Bill Discount Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A BOJ rate hike would likely trigger a sell-off in US financial markets as hedge funds unwind large carry trades funded in Japanese Yen.<\/p>\n<p>The US Dollar Index broke support at 99 and is expected to fall sharply in December, taking a double hit from a Fed rate cut and a BOJ rate hike, which would narrow the current spread by an estimated 50 basis points.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Long-term Treasury yields are softening in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, but could face a sell-off amid tightening liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500\u00a0 also rallied in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, but again, the rally risks being undone by contracting liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Mag 7 technology stocks continue to show gains over the past 6 months, apart from Meta Platforms (META), with Alphabet (GOOGL) building an advantage in the competition to lead AI.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-mag7.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Magnificent 7 Technology Stocks\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Small caps are also strengthening, with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) testing resistance at 250.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-iwm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Gold &amp; Silver<\/h2>\n<p>Gold is retracing to test support at $4,200, with high prices taming investor enthusiasm for the present.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is consolidating in a narrow band above support at $58 per ounce. Respect of support would confirm our target of $62.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Energy Metals<\/h2>\n<p>Energy metals are another prospective inflation hedge for investors.<\/p>\n<p>The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) broke resistance at 56, joining copper and lithium miners in an uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-urnm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) broke resistance at 31.50, confirming a fresh advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-copp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) is also in an uptrend since breaking resistance at 11.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-litp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Forced to choose between its two mandates, the Fed seems willing to prioritize maintaining full employment ahead of stable prices. Cutting rates while the unemployment rate is low (below 5.0%) may please President Trump, who wants to run the economy hot, but risks a sharp rebound in inflation.<\/p>\n<p>High inflation would lower the debt-to-GDP ratio but would likely increase outflows from US Treasury markets and raise long-term interest rates as international bond investors demand a higher risk premium. It would also later necessitate a sharp increase in interest rates to get the genie back in the lamp.<\/p>\n<p>Falling Bitcoin prices and rising secure overnight funding rates in the $12 billion repo market signal tight liquidity in financial markets. Unwinding carry trades may destabilize financial markets if the Bank of Japan hikes its policy rate on December 18 as expected. A Fed rate cut and a BOJ rate hike would narrow the current carry trade spread by an estimated 50 basis points, risking a sharp sell-off in several trillion dollars of US assets financed in Yen.<\/p>\n<p>The danger is that the Fed may reintroduce QE to stabilize the repo market, as it did during the last Powell pivot in September 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Demand for gold, silver, and energy metals \u2014 copper, lithium, and uranium \u2014 is likely to increase as concerns over inflation grow.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Institute for Supply Management: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/\">ISM Report on Business<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Consumer Surveys<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ADP: <a href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\">National Employment Report<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/dollar-weak-with-rate-cut-enthusiasm-intact-euro-7-week-high-2025-12-04\/\">Dollar soft as rate-cut bets intact, euro at 7-week high<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control. A rate cut will likely weaken the Dollar, increase &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The real risk of a Fed rate cut&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,4738,5342,3761,9,13,4547,6106,34,35],"tags":[69,7101,7102,7100,5056,6622,815,1073,5855,4237,6593,3010,7009,3204,3206,6103,6393,5228],"class_list":["post-63338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-copper","category-cryptocurrency","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-lithium","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-13-week-t-bill-rate","tag-3-month-japanese-government-bill-discount-rate","tag-adp-national-employment","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-copper","tag-dollar-index","tag-ism-services-pmi","tag-repo-markets","tag-russell-2000-small-cap-etf-iwm","tag-sp-500","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-sprott-physical-uranium-trust-sruuf","tag-top-7-technology-stocks","tag-uranium"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The real risk of a Fed rate cut - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The real risk of a Fed rate cut - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. 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A rate cut will likely weaken the Dollar, increase &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The real risk of a Fed rate cut&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T08:10:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T08:25:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/04\\\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/04\\\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"The real risk of a Fed rate cut\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-04T08:10:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-04T08:25:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/04\\\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":900,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/04\\\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2025\\\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"13-Week T-Bill Rate\",\"3-Month Japanese Government Bill Discount Rate\",\"ADP National Employment\",\"Bitcoin (BTC)\",\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\",\"Copper\",\"Dollar Index\",\"ISM Services PMI\",\"Repo Markets\",\"Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)\",\"Spot Gold\",\"Spot Silver\",\"Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF)\",\"Top 7 Technology Stocks\",\"Uranium\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; 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Stocks rallied in anticipation of an early Fed rate cut, ignoring the warning that the Services sector, the capstone of the economy, is now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"George Costanza from Seinfeld","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2024-07-03-costanza.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":63326,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/02\/tight-liquidity-and-rising-bond-yields-weigh-on-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":63338,"position":1},"title":"Tight liquidity and rising bond yields weigh on stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Selling pressure on the S&P 500 has increased as liquidity tightens. Ten-year Treasury yields are also rising amid growing pressure on Japanese bond markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2% as the sector continues its long-term contraction. Gold and silver are testing support, but remain in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59057,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/06\/trump-comeback\/","url_meta":{"origin":63338,"position":2},"title":"Trump comeback","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"According to pundits from The Hill, former President Donald Trump is projected to win the popular vote and sweep the electoral college. That would complete a comeback last achieved 120 years ago by President Grover Cleveland. There is unlikely to be much short-term effect on financial markets, but the long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Trump versus Harris","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-04-harris-trump2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62511,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/02\/sp-500-makes-new-high-as-the-economy-slows\/","url_meta":{"origin":63338,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 makes new high as the economy slows","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 6700, while the government shutdown delays monthly payroll data. ADP private payroll data reports 32,000 jobs lost in September. The ISM Manufacturing survey shows the sector is shedding jobs. With the regular monthly BLS labor report delayed due to the government\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Private Payrolls","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-01-adp-privatepayroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-01-adp-privatepayroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-01-adp-privatepayroll.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56709,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/15\/path-is-now-clear-for-a-fed-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":63338,"position":4},"title":"Path is now clear for a Fed rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Low July CPI boosted Treasuries, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.82% in anticipation of a Fed rate cut next month. The S&P 500 advanced but lacks conviction as financial markets warn of tightening liquidity. Gold failed to break resistance at $2,475 per ounce, retracing to test short-term support. Crude\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-14-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-14-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-14-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63223,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/26\/rate-cut-rebound-but-consumer-confidence-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":63338,"position":5},"title":"Rate cut rebound but consumer confidence falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Retail sales dipped slightly in September, with no real improvement since 2021. 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