{"id":63335,"date":"2025-12-03T09:24:50","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T09:24:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63335"},"modified":"2025-12-03T09:35:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T09:35:49","slug":"asx-selling-pressure-while-consumers-struggle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/asx-selling-pressure-while-consumers-struggle\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX selling pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter, but this masks negative growth for the consumer.<\/li>\n<li>The S&amp;P Global composite PMI shows business is holding up well.<\/li>\n<li>However, the ASX 200 is signaling selling pressure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the fourth quarter, while annual growth remains low at 2.1%. The result includes household electricity rebates, which are added to GDP as government spending but are deducted from the CPI inflation index\u2014a form of double counting.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-02-aus-gdp.png?resize=525%2C281&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP\" width=\"525\" height=\"281\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Real GDP also does not account for population growth driven by immigration since the 2020 pandemic. The Macrobusiness chart below shows how immigration has masked a decline in real GDP per capita.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-gdp-pc.png?resize=525%2C385&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP Per Capita\" width=\"525\" height=\"385\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On the business front, the S&amp;P Global composite PMI reflects a healthy expansion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-02-aus-composite-pmi.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Judo Bank Composite PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The housing market is weaker, but the 3-month moving average of private dwelling approvals is holding above its long-term MA.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-aus-approvals.png?resize=525%2C343&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Building Approvals\" width=\"525\" height=\"343\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>ASX 200 Index<\/h2>\n<p>The ASX 200 rally has petered out at 8600, while declining Trend Index peaks warn of growing selling pressure. A breach of support at 8400 would be a strong bear signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-xjo.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The problems lie with the key Financials sector. A narrow consolidation at the 9000 support level is a bearish sign, and follow-through below 8900 would signal another decline, offering a target of 8000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-xfj.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Financials Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P Global composite PMI may reflect a healthy expansion, but consumers are struggling with negative per capita GDP growth.<\/p>\n<p>The key ASX 200 Financials index is testing support at 9000, and a follow-through below 8900 would warn of a bear market.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national-accounts\/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product\/latest-release\">Australian National Accounts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/industry\/building-and-construction\/building-approvals-australia\/oct-2025\">Building Approvals<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Macrobusiness: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2025\/12\/australian-economy-remains-per-capita-recession-bound\/\">Australian economy remains per capita recession bound<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Trading Economics: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/australia\/composite-pmi\">Australian Composite PMI<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter, but this masks negative growth for the consumer. The S&amp;P Global composite PMI shows business is holding up well. However, the ASX 200 is signaling selling pressure. Real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the fourth quarter, while annual growth remains low at &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/asx-selling-pressure-while-consumers-struggle\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX selling pressure&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,3761,10],"tags":[251,4003,6766,6785,7099],"class_list":["post-63335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-200-financials","tag-australian-composite-pmi","tag-private-dwelling-approvals","tag-real-gdp-per-caita"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX selling pressure - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX selling pressure - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter, but this masks negative growth for the consumer. The S&amp;P Global composite PMI shows business is holding up well. However, the ASX 200 is signaling selling pressure. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gtx","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":59679,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/05\/australia-rba-unlikely-to-play-santa\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":0},"title":"Australia: RBA unlikely to play Santa","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the chorus of pleas from interest groups, the RBA is unlikely to deliver an early rate cut. Strong government spending prevents the slide into recession and increases upward pressure on prices. The ASX 200 also remains in a strong uptrend. ASX Stocks Australia's ASX 200 is testing resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/04\/rba-admits-its-mistake\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":1},"title":"RBA Admits Its Mistake","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The consumer price index jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally-adjusted 4.1%. The ASX 200 found support at 8800. The RBA increased its cash rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/10\/australia-cautiously-pessimistic\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":2},"title":"Australia: &#8220;cautiously pessimistic&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The ASX 200 threatens a new high But consumer sentiment is low Business conditions are weak Commodity exports are slowing, and so is economic growth ASX 200 earnings are likely to follow The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 8600. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62231,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/05\/asx-200-confirms-breakout\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 confirms breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points ASX 200 recovery above 8650 confirms a fresh advance The ASX 200 recovered above 8650, while higher Trend Index troughs indicate buying pressure. The recent retracement successfully tested support at 8600, confirming a fresh advance with a long-term target of 9600. The S&P Global Composite PMI jumped to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55279,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/04\/asx-lifts-on-iron-ore-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":4},"title":"ASX lifts on iron ore rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 rallied on the back of a strong US overnight performance and an upsurge in iron ore prices. Rising Trend Index troughs signal buying pressure. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining climbed off the floor after an extended test of primary support at 5600. Boosted by an upsurge\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-03-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-03-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-03-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17955,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/08\/asx-200-gravestone\/","url_meta":{"origin":63335,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 gravestone","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian housing prices are falling. Fueled by declining credit growth. With falling contribution to GDP growth from dwelling investment, and mining investment shrinking.... GDP growth is expected to weaken further. The gravestone candlestick on the ASX 200 weekly chart warns of selling pressure. The primary trend is down and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63335"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63337,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63335\/revisions\/63337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}