{"id":63147,"date":"2025-11-21T03:25:05","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T03:25:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63147"},"modified":"2025-11-21T03:25:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T03:25:05","slug":"when-good-news-is-bad-news-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/","title":{"rendered":"When good news is bad news"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The delayed September jobs report shows a gain of 119,000 jobs.<\/li>\n<li>Prospects for a Fed rate cut in December grow increasingly unlikely.<\/li>\n<li>NVIDIA&#8217;s revenue growth raises concerns over AI capital spending.<\/li>\n<li>Technology stocks fell sharply, along with copper and uranium miners.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 plunged amid growing concerns about AI capital expenditure. The index jumped higher at the open, after Nvidia&#8217;s stellar results, but then closed below support at 6550, signaling a correction. Follow-through below 6500 would offer a target of 6200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nvidia reported stellar revenue growth and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $65 billion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-nvda-revenue.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nvidia Quarterly Revenue\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>CEO Jensen Huang said that Nvidia has $500 billion in orders for its AI chips in 2025 and 2026 combined, and that number is expected to grow.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>What&#8217;s more, four customers accounted for 61% of Nvidia&#8217;s sales in the third quarter, up from 56% in the second. That suggests increased concentration risk for Nvidia as well as the chip buyers.<\/p>\n<p>These are big bets. The eventual productivity gains may be enough to make the outlay worth it. But we won&#8217;t know for a while, and the bigger the spend, the higher that bar for profitability and the greater the risk that investors will grow impatient. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-11-20\/\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) similarly broke support at 590, signaling a correction to test support at 550.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-qqq.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The forward PE of the S&amp;P 500 Tech sector is at its highest since 2002, warning that market pricing is extreme.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx-tech-fpe.png?resize=525%2C395&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"395\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin broke support at 90K, warning of a significant liquidity contraction in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Treasury general account (TGA) remains high, offering no relief.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-tga.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Liabilities: Treasury General Account (TGA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Prospects for a December Fed rate cut are declining. The 6-month T-Bill discount rate jumped above the current lower limit of the Fed funds target after the last FOMC meeting and has remained there since then.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-us6m.png?resize=525%2C323&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"6-Month T-Bill Discount Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"323\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Minutes of the last FOMC meeting reflect a deeply divided Fed, with three Trump appointees &#8212; Miran, Bowman, and Waller &#8212; pushing for rate cuts. However, the majority are more cautious:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective&#8230;.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany participants expressed concerns that overall inflation had been above target for some time and had shown little sign of returning sustainably to the 2 percent objective in a timely manner&#8230;.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Labor Market<\/h2>\n<p>The BLS reported an increase of 119 thousand jobs in September after a dismal four months from May to August. We are suspicious of the BLS labor figures, however, after President Trump fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/04\/are-the-jobs-numbers-rigged\/\">in August<\/a>, claiming that the jobs numbers were &#8220;rigged.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in aggregate hours worked remains below 1.0%, indicating low economic growth, which will likely be reflected in Q4 GDP numbers.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-hours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Continued unemployment claims increased to almost 2 million, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, both reflecting a reasonably healthy but deteriorating labor market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-claims-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Continued Claims &amp; Unemployment Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Of greater concern is the loss of 100 thousand jobs in cyclical sectors since February. Employment in the three sectors &#8212; manufacturing, construction, and transport and warehousing &#8212; accounts for the largest job losses during a recession and serves as a leading indicator of the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-cyclical-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Jobs in Cyclical Industries\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Gold &amp; Forex<\/h2>\n<p>Gold is consolidating above support at $4,000 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Japanese yen is testing resistance at its January high of 158, with rising Trend Index troughs indicating long-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-jpy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Japanese Yen\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Energy Materials<\/h2>\n<p>Copper miners retreated as concerns over AI capex grow, with the Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) breaking support at 28. Follow-through would confirm a target of 25.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-copp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A breach of support at 52 confirms a similar decline in the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), with a target of 46.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-urnm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Lithium miners are enjoying a strong uptrend, but the LITP ETF retreated below 12 on Thursday, suggesting a correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-litp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Stocks are falling as liquidity contracts, but indications are that this is a secondary correction. The market is reassessing the sizable commitment to AI capital expenditure and the risk that hyperscalers may not earn a high return on their investment. Technology stocks were sold off, as well as copper and uranium miners. The miners stand to gain from the exponential growth in data center energy demand.<\/p>\n<p>There are no signs of a structural shift, with gold consolidating above $4,000 per ounce and the Japanese yen steady at 158 against the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>The BLS reported 119K job gains in September, but continued unemployment claims are rising. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, but the greater concern is the loss of 100K jobs in cyclical sectors since February. Job losses in manufacturing, construction, and transport and warehousing are typical triggers of a recession and serve as leading indicators of the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Prospects for a Fed rate cut in December are declining.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Department of Labor: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\">Continued Claims<\/a><\/li>\n<li>BEA: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2025\/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-june-2025\">US International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Institute for Supply Management: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/\">ISM Report on Business<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wolf Richter:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2025\/11\/19\/treasury-market-scuttles-hope-for-december-rate-cut-doubts-january-cut-after-hawkish-divided-fed-minutes\/\">Treasury Market Scuttles Hope for December Rate Cut<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-11-20\/\">Nvidia sparkle vanishes, Wall Street slammed<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/nvidia-beat-may-yet-stir-fear-street-2025-11-20\/\">Nvidia beat may yet stir fear on the Street<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The delayed September jobs report shows a gain of 119,000 jobs. Prospects for a Fed rate cut in December grow increasingly unlikely. NVIDIA&#8217;s revenue growth raises concerns over AI capital spending. Technology stocks fell sharply, along with copper and uranium miners. The S&amp;P 500 plunged amid growing concerns about AI capital expenditure. The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;When good news is bad news&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,4738,5342,46,3761,6165,4547,6106,34],"tags":[7074,5056,4412,1229,5790,7075,4045,6619,1935,7076,7072,3010,7073,3204,7005,6912,6960,3442,3534],"class_list":["post-63147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-copper","category-cryptocurrency","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-japanese-yen","category-lithium","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-6-month-t-bill-discount-rate","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-continued-claims","tag-employment-growth","tag-fed-treasury-general-account-tga","tag-fomc-minutes","tag-forward-pe","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-japanese-yen","tag-jobs-in-cyclical-industries","tag-nvidia-quarterly-revenue-growth","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-500-technology-sector","tag-spot-gold","tag-sprott-copper-miners-etf-copp","tag-sprott-lithium-miners-etf-litp","tag-sprott-uranium-miners-etf-urnm","tag-total-hours-worked","tag-unemployment-rate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When good news is bad news - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When good news is bad news - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The delayed September jobs report shows a gain of 119,000 jobs. Prospects for a Fed rate cut in December grow increasingly unlikely. NVIDIA&#8217;s revenue growth raises concerns over AI capital spending. Technology stocks fell sharply, along with copper and uranium miners. The S&amp;P 500 plunged amid growing concerns about AI capital expenditure. 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Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"When good news is bad news - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"When good news is bad news - the patient investor","og_description":"Key Points The delayed September jobs report shows a gain of 119,000 jobs. Prospects for a Fed rate cut in December grow increasingly unlikely. NVIDIA&#8217;s revenue growth raises concerns over AI capital spending. Technology stocks fell sharply, along with copper and uranium miners. The S&amp;P 500 plunged amid growing concerns about AI capital expenditure. The &hellip; Continue reading \"When good news is bad news\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2025-11-21T03:25:05+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"When good news is bad news","datePublished":"2025-11-21T03:25:05+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/"},"wordCount":879,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png","keywords":["6-Month T-Bill Discount Rate","Bitcoin (BTC)","Continued Claims","Employment Growth","Fed Treasury General Account (TGA)","FOMC Minutes","Forward PE","Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)","Japanese yen","Jobs in Cyclical Industries","Nvidia Quarterly Revenue Growth","S&amp;P 500","S&amp;P 500 Technology Sector","Spot Gold","Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)","Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)","Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)","Total Hours Worked","Unemployment Rate"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Copper","Cryptocurrency","Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","GDP and Activity","Japanese Yen","Lithium","Nuclear Energy &amp; Uranium","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/","name":"When good news is bad news - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png","datePublished":"2025-11-21T03:25:05+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-20-spx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/21\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"When good news is bad news"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gqv","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":0},"title":"The real risk of a Fed rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control. A rate cut will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Private Sector Jobs","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63326,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/02\/tight-liquidity-and-rising-bond-yields-weigh-on-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":1},"title":"Tight liquidity and rising bond yields weigh on stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Selling pressure on the S&P 500 has increased as liquidity tightens. Ten-year Treasury yields are also rising amid growing pressure on Japanese bond markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2% as the sector continues its long-term contraction. Gold and silver are testing support, but remain in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/16\/tight-liquidity-ahead-of-boj-decision\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":2},"title":"Tight liquidity ahead of BOJ decision","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Financial markets are on edge ahead of the Bank of Japan policy rate decision on December 18. Bitcoin is testing primary support at 85K, warning of tight liquidity in financial markets. Bank reserves remain below the widely considered $3 trillion minimum required to maintain financial market stability. Financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63223,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/26\/rate-cut-rebound-but-consumer-confidence-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":3},"title":"Rate cut rebound but consumer confidence falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Retail sales dipped slightly in September, with no real improvement since 2021. The Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index is at a low of 63.2, warning of a recession. Stocks rallied, and the dollar weakened, on prospects of a December rate cut. We expect gold to test resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62265,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/12\/lithium-jumps-ahead-of-uranium-and-copper\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":4},"title":"Lithium jumps ahead of uranium and copper","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Lithium miners reverse to an uptrend Copper remains rangebound Uranium also rallied but has yet to confirm a breakout The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global energy demand grew by 2.2% in 2024, below the economic growth rate (3.2%). However, electricity demand jumped 4.3%. The absolute increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-11-li-cu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-11-li-cu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-11-li-cu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/05\/bitcoin-plunge-signals-risk-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":63147,"position":5},"title":"Bitcoin Plunge Signals Risk-Off","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Bitcoin plunged to $71,200, warning that financial markets are becoming risk-averse. Brent crude surged to nearly $70 per barrel amid heightened US-Iran tensions. Volatility following the CME margin hike, effective Monday, triggered a broad selloff in precious metals and energy transition metals. Bitcoin2 (BTC) broke support at 85,000,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63147"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63151,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63147\/revisions\/63151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}