{"id":63066,"date":"2025-11-15T09:50:32","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T09:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63066"},"modified":"2025-11-15T11:00:43","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T11:00:43","slug":"cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge\/","title":{"rendered":"Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession.<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=525%2C344&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (SA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The decline confirms the earlier signal from our leading indicator.<\/p>\n<p>A year-on-year decline of more than 2.0% in the 12-month moving average of the unadjusted Cass Freight Shipments Index provides a leading indicator of recessions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass-roc.png?resize=525%2C344&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (NSA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin continues to decline, warning of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity that will likely affect stock prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) increased to the Fed&#8217;s standing repo facility rate (blue dashes below), which is now 4.0%. The higher SOFR rate indicates that the repo market is having to pay a premium over the rate paid on reserve balances (pink) to attract sufficient funding from commercial banks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-sofr-iorb-srf.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB) &amp; Standing Repo Facility (SFR)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When monetary conditions are looser, the repo market is primarily funded by money market funds, which are prepared to accept a lower rate than the IORB, only offered by the Fed to commercial banks.<\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied after a gap down at the open, but was unable to hold onto gains.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields shot up to 4.15%, suggesting that the prospects of a December rate cut are again fading.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rising long-term rates caused a pull-back in gold and silver. We expect gold to retest support between $3,900 and $4,000 per ounce, but respect will likely indicate another test of $4,400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is similarly retracing to test support between 50 and 46.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Cass Freight Index recession signal reinforces last week&#8217;s warning from the Freightwaves CEO of a <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/06\/freightwaves-warning-on-us-economy\/\">crisis in the long-haul freight industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The sharp contraction in financial market liquidity risks a correction in stock prices.<\/p>\n<p>Gold and silver pulled back on a rally in long-term interest rates, but we remain bullish on their long-term prospects.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cass Information Systems: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cassinfo.com\/freight-audit-payment\/cass-transportation-indexes\/cass-freight-index\">The Cass Freight Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession. Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices. The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession. The decline confirms the earlier signal from our &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,3761,9,34],"tags":[5056,7058,3010,7009,7060],"class_list":["post-63066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-interest-on-reserve-balance-iorb","tag-sp-500","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-standing-repo-facility-sfr"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession. Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices. The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gpc","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62480,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/24\/stocks-soar-as-the-economy-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":0},"title":"Stocks soar as the economy falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Cass Freight Index warns of a recession. The S&P 500 remains at a heady valuation, driven by the Magificent Seven. Gold and silver continue in a strong uptrend, warning of abnormal volatility in global financial markets. The seasonally-adjusted Cass Freight Index descended to 1.006 in July, its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (SA)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":46609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/21\/houthi-threat-offset-by-rising-us-crude-inventories\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":1},"title":"Houthi threat offset by rising US crude inventories","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Market movements are currently dominated by crude oil prices and long-term interest rates. 10-Year Treasury yields broke support at 3.9%, warning of a decline to 3.5%. Falling long-term yields are expected to boost demand for stocks, bonds and gold. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at its 2022 high of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63745,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/25\/dead-man-walking\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":2},"title":"Dead Man Walking","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 remains range-bound while the Technology sector plunges. The DJ US Index is underperforming its international peers. The Coincident Economic Activity Index warns of an impending recession. Precious metals and energy-related metals are rallying. The financial media gets excited when the S&P 500 rallies for a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":3},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62404,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/09\/bond-yields-and-the-dollar-fall-as-gold-reaches-a-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":4},"title":"Bond yields and the dollar fall as gold reaches a new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields are falling steeply in anticipation of more Fed rate cuts as the economy slows. The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 6500. Financial market liquidity remains strong, supporting stocks. The dollar is weakening, and gold and silver soared to new highs. 10-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63983,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/financial-markets-tighten-as-tankers-burn\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":5},"title":"Financial Markets Tighten as Tankers Burn","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 31, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iran attacked a fully loaded oil tanker off Dubai in the Persian Gulf, setting it ablaze. Brent crude futures (May'26) are testing resistance at $115 per barrel. Financial market liquidity is tightening, with credit spreads widening. The US Dollar strengthened to 100.5. TEL AVIV\/WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-30-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-30-brent4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-30-brent4.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63066"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63073,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066\/revisions\/63073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}