{"id":63066,"date":"2025-11-15T09:50:32","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T09:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63066"},"modified":"2025-11-15T11:00:43","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T11:00:43","slug":"cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge\/","title":{"rendered":"Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession.<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=525%2C344&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (SA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The decline confirms the earlier signal from our leading indicator.<\/p>\n<p>A year-on-year decline of more than 2.0% in the 12-month moving average of the unadjusted Cass Freight Shipments Index provides a leading indicator of recessions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass-roc.png?resize=525%2C344&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (NSA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin continues to decline, warning of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity that will likely affect stock prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) increased to the Fed&#8217;s standing repo facility rate (blue dashes below), which is now 4.0%. The higher SOFR rate indicates that the repo market is having to pay a premium over the rate paid on reserve balances (pink) to attract sufficient funding from commercial banks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-sofr-iorb-srf.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB) &amp; Standing Repo Facility (SFR)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When monetary conditions are looser, the repo market is primarily funded by money market funds, which are prepared to accept a lower rate than the IORB, only offered by the Fed to commercial banks.<\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied after a gap down at the open, but was unable to hold onto gains.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields shot up to 4.15%, suggesting that the prospects of a December rate cut are again fading.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rising long-term rates caused a pull-back in gold and silver. We expect gold to retest support between $3,900 and $4,000 per ounce, but respect will likely indicate another test of $4,400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is similarly retracing to test support between 50 and 46.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Cass Freight Index recession signal reinforces last week&#8217;s warning from the Freightwaves CEO of a <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/06\/freightwaves-warning-on-us-economy\/\">crisis in the long-haul freight industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The sharp contraction in financial market liquidity risks a correction in stock prices.<\/p>\n<p>Gold and silver pulled back on a rally in long-term interest rates, but we remain bullish on their long-term prospects.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cass Information Systems: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cassinfo.com\/freight-audit-payment\/cass-transportation-indexes\/cass-freight-index\">The Cass Freight Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession. Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices. The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession. The decline confirms the earlier signal from our &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,3761,9,34],"tags":[5056,7058,3010,7009,7060],"class_list":["post-63066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-interest-on-reserve-balance-iorb","tag-sp-500","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-standing-repo-facility-sfr"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession. Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices. The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gpc","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62480,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/24\/stocks-soar-as-the-economy-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":0},"title":"Stocks soar as the economy falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Cass Freight Index warns of a recession. The S&P 500 remains at a heady valuation, driven by the Magificent Seven. Gold and silver continue in a strong uptrend, warning of abnormal volatility in global financial markets. The seasonally-adjusted Cass Freight Index descended to 1.006 in July, its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (SA)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-24-cass.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":46609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/21\/houthi-threat-offset-by-rising-us-crude-inventories\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":1},"title":"Houthi threat offset by rising US crude inventories","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Market movements are currently dominated by crude oil prices and long-term interest rates. 10-Year Treasury yields broke support at 3.9%, warning of a decline to 3.5%. Falling long-term yields are expected to boost demand for stocks, bonds and gold. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at its 2022 high of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-21-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63745,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/25\/dead-man-walking\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":2},"title":"Dead Man Walking","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 remains range-bound while the Technology sector plunges. The DJ US Index is underperforming its international peers. The Coincident Economic Activity Index warns of an impending recession. Precious metals and energy-related metals are rallying. The financial media gets excited when the S&P 500 rallies for a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":3},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62404,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/09\/bond-yields-and-the-dollar-fall-as-gold-reaches-a-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":4},"title":"Bond yields and the dollar fall as gold reaches a new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields are falling steeply in anticipation of more Fed rate cuts as the economy slows. The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 6500. Financial market liquidity remains strong, supporting stocks. The dollar is weakening, and gold and silver soared to new highs. 10-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64556,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/17\/us-market-snapshot-23\/","url_meta":{"origin":63066,"position":5},"title":"US Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-05-us-bull-bear-gge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-05-us-bull-bear-gge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-05-05-us-bull-bear-gge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63066"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63073,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63066\/revisions\/63073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}