{"id":63061,"date":"2025-11-14T08:15:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63061"},"modified":"2025-11-14T08:15:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T08:15:34","slug":"stocks-fall-gold-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/14\/stocks-fall-gold-rises\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks fall, gold rises"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin broke support at 100K, signaling that financial market liquidity is contracting.<\/li>\n<li>Major stock indices and ETFs declined as Fed officials hosed down prospects of a December rate cut.<\/li>\n<li>Copper and uranium miners are falling, indicating doubts over the AI infrastructure buildout.<\/li>\n<li>Gold rallied to $4,200 per ounce, signaling a flight to safety.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Bitcoin broke long-term support at $100,000, signaling a financial market contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Repo markets continue to signal stress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) above the rate paid on reserve balances.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-sofr-iorb.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) &amp; Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The $7 trillion in money market funds is already tapped out, attracted by the sizable premium of the SOFR above the overnight reverse repo rate offered by the Fed.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-sofr-rrpr.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) &amp; Overnight Reverse Repo Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In 2023, the Fed lowered the overnight reverse repo rate (pink above) to encourage money market funds to shift their investments to the repo market. The $2.3 trillion outflow into the repo market helped offset the effects of the Fed&#8217;s securities sales (QT), creating the illusion of monetary tightening without actual tightening.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-rrp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Liabilities\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The Nasdaq QQQ ETF fell more than 2.0%. The lower Trend Index peak above zero indicates secondary selling pressure, which will likely test support at 590.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-qqq.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Demand for copper and uranium is expected to increase, with AI hyperscalers projected to invest an estimated $5 trillion in data centers and related infrastructure. Copper is required for both electrical and cooling purposes, so hesitation in the Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) suggests growing doubts over the AI buildout. A breach of support at 28 would be a bearish sign for the AI-heavy tech sector.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-copp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Demand for uranium is also projected to grow, with the IEA forecasting that global electricity demand from data centers will more than double by 2030 to approximately 945 terawatt-hours (TWh). However, declining Trend Index peaks on the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) warn of rising selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-urnm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Gold<\/h2>\n<p>Gold rallied to test resistance at $4,200 per ounce as financial markets shifted to a risk-off stance. A breakout above $4,400 would offer a target of $5,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Financial markets are signaling tighter liquidity, which will likely cause a secondary correction in stocks.<\/p>\n<p>We are overweight in gold and gold miners, and underweight in high-multiple technology stocks.<\/p>\n<p>We see long-term growth in copper and uranium, but are wary of a correction in the short-term.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>IEA: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works\">AI is set to drive surging electricity demand from data centres while offering the potential to transform how the energy sector works<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Bitcoin broke support at 100K, signaling that financial market liquidity is contracting. Major stock indices and ETFs declined as Fed officials hosed down prospects of a December rate cut. Copper and uranium miners are falling, indicating doubts over the AI infrastructure buildout. Gold rallied to $4,200 per ounce, signaling a flight to safety. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/14\/stocks-fall-gold-rises\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Stocks fall, gold rises&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,4738,5342,9,6106,34],"tags":[5056,6192,7058,6619,7057,4237,7009,3204,7005,6960],"class_list":["post-63061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-copper","category-cryptocurrency","category-gold-precious-metals","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-fed-reverse-repo-rrp-liabilities","tag-interest-on-reserve-balance-iorb","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-overnight-reverse-repo-rate","tag-repo-markets","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-spot-gold","tag-sprott-copper-miners-etf-copp","tag-sprott-uranium-miners-etf-urnm"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stocks fall, gold rises - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks fall, gold rises - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Bitcoin broke support at 100K, signaling that financial market liquidity is contracting. Major stock indices and ETFs declined as Fed officials hosed down prospects of a December rate cut. Copper and uranium miners are falling, indicating doubts over the AI infrastructure buildout. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gp7","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63326,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/02\/tight-liquidity-and-rising-bond-yields-weigh-on-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":0},"title":"Tight liquidity and rising bond yields weigh on stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Selling pressure on the S&P 500 has increased as liquidity tightens. Ten-year Treasury yields are also rising amid growing pressure on Japanese bond markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2% as the sector continues its long-term contraction. Gold and silver are testing support, but remain in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-01-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":1},"title":"The real risk of a Fed rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control. A rate cut will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Private Sector Jobs","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63223,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/26\/rate-cut-rebound-but-consumer-confidence-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":2},"title":"Rate cut rebound but consumer confidence falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Retail sales dipped slightly in September, with no real improvement since 2021. The Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index is at a low of 63.2, warning of a recession. Stocks rallied, and the dollar weakened, on prospects of a December rate cut. We expect gold to test resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-25-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/16\/tight-liquidity-ahead-of-boj-decision\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":3},"title":"Tight liquidity ahead of BOJ decision","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Financial markets are on edge ahead of the Bank of Japan policy rate decision on December 18. Bitcoin is testing primary support at 85K, warning of tight liquidity in financial markets. Bank reserves remain below the widely considered $3 trillion minimum required to maintain financial market stability. Financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-15-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63523,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/fed-stalls-stocks-weaken-gold-soars\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":4},"title":"Fed Stalls, Stocks Weaken, Gold Soars","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Fed policymakers voted 10-2 to hold the central bank's benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The Dollar strengthened slightly, while stocks weakened. Gold and silver soared to new highs at $5,545 and $117.50 per ounce, respectively. \"The economy has once again surprised us with its \u200cstrength,\" Fed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Announcement","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-28-fomc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-28-fomc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-28-fomc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-01-28-fomc.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/28\/market-optimism-on-trade-talks\/","url_meta":{"origin":63061,"position":5},"title":"Market Optimism on Trade Talks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 28, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 will likely test resistance at 7000 if another US-China trade deal is announced this week. Gold, copper, and uranium all retreated on optimism over a potential trade deal. Still, we remain bearish on the dollar and bullish on the three as a long-term hedge against\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Chicago Fed National Activity Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-27-nai.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63061"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63062,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63061\/revisions\/63062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}