{"id":63005,"date":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63005"},"modified":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","slug":"rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%.<\/li>\n<li>The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending.<\/li>\n<li>However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are viewed as temporary, the policy statement says the housing market is strengthening and the labor market is &#8220;a little tight.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We believe the labor market is deteriorating despite the &#8220;pick-up in private demand&#8221; mentioned in the RBA policy statement. ANZ-Indeed job ads declined by 2.2% in October, bringing the annual change to -7.4%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png?resize=525%2C327&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads\" width=\"525\" height=\"327\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The decline emphasizes the surprise increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in September. The graph below compares job ads on an inverted scale (blue &#8211; LHS) against the unemployment rate (red &#8211; RHS).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads-u3.png?resize=525%2C331&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads &amp; Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"331\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in monthly hours worked is also slowing, and we expect the uptrend in unemployment to continue.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-hours.png?resize=525%2C306&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Aggregate Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"306\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Housing<\/h2>\n<p>Building approvals for private dwellings indicate resilience in the housing market, with the 3-month moving average (15.5K) above its 20-year moving average.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-approvals.png?resize=525%2C345&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Building Approvals\" width=\"525\" height=\"345\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Housing prices continue to reflect a market shortage due to high immigration.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Australia&#8217;s home value growth hits the fastest pace in over two years as national dwelling values surged 1.1% in October, marking the strongest monthly gain since June 2023 and pushing the annual growth rate to 6.1%. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cotality.com\/au\/insights\/articles\/housing-values-rising-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-two-years\">Cotality<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Australia faces a similar K-shaped economy to the US.<\/p>\n<p>Rising housing values and a buoyant stock market create a wealth effect, encouraging spending by wealthier consumers.<\/p>\n<p>However, the increase in demand has not translated into strong job growth. Unemployment is rising, and growth in monthly hours worked has slowed, but the RBA can&#8217;t do much while inflation is increasing.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/industry\/building-and-construction\/building-approvals-australia\/sep-2025\">Building Approvals<\/a><\/li>\n<li>RBA: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2025\/mr-25-31.html\">Monetary Policy Decision<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ANZ: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anz.com.au\/content\/dam\/anzcomau\/mediacentre\/pdfs\/consumerconfidence\/2025\/november\/ANZ_Indeed_Australian_Job_Ads_another_monthly_decline.pdf\">ANZ-Indeed Job Ads<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cotality: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cotality.com\/au\/insights\/articles\/housing-values-rising-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-two-years\">Home Value Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending. However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation. The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,46,3761,10],"tags":[6654,7039,515,2362,3534],"class_list":["post-63005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","tag-anz-indeed-job-ads","tag-australian-home-value-index","tag-building-approvals","tag-monthly-hours-worked","tag-unemployment-rate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending. However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation. The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are &hellip; Continue reading &quot;RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\"},\"wordCount\":307,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ANZ-Indeed Job Ads\",\"Australian Home Value Index\",\"building approvals\",\"Monthly Hours Worked\",\"Unemployment Rate\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Housing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\",\"name\":\"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor","og_description":"Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending. However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation. The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are &hellip; Continue reading \"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation","datePublished":"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/"},"wordCount":307,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png","keywords":["ANZ-Indeed Job Ads","Australian Home Value Index","building approvals","Monthly Hours Worked","Unemployment Rate"],"articleSection":["Australia &amp; NZ","Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","GDP and Activity","Housing"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","name":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png","datePublished":"2025-11-04T06:05:14+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-god","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/04\/rba-admits-its-mistake\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":0},"title":"RBA Admits Its Mistake","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The consumer price index jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally-adjusted 4.1%. The ASX 200 found support at 8800. The RBA increased its cash rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57188,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/03\/australia-unemployment-set-to-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":1},"title":"Australia: Unemployment set to rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia faces a weakening jobs market in the medium term while falling real capital expenditure per employee warns of declining long-term growth. The DEWR\u2019s Leading Indicator of Employment [red below] last peaked in March 2022. Actual cyclical employment follows with a sixteen-month lag, commencing in July 2023. The Indicator\u2019s downtrend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61706,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/20\/rba-cautiously-lowers-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":2},"title":"RBA cautiously lowers rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The RBA cautiously lowered its cash rate target by 25 basis points The rate cut is in response to a low CPI print and a swathe of bearish economic data after the Trump tariff shock Caution is due to the low 4.1% unemployment rate, a strong 0.9% increase in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate Target","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37070,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/06\/australia-more-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":3},"title":"Australia: More rate hikes ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA hiked its target for the cash rate by 50 basis points today, to 2.35%, offering the following justification: .....Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. Global factors explain much of the increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-06-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":38428,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/01\/australia-rba-missed-opportunity\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":4},"title":"Australia: RBA missed opportunity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA announced a 25 basis point hike in their cash rate target, from 2.60% to 2.85%, lagging far behind CPI which grew by 7.3% in the 12 months to September. RBA Governor Phil Lowe's announcement: As is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high. Over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38388,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/29\/australia-inflation-the-rba-cash-rate\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":5},"title":"Australia: Inflation &#038; the RBA cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index grew at 7.3% for the 12 months to September, highlighting that Australia is not immune from the high inflation that has beset global economies. Bill Evans (Westpac) calls for a 50 basis point hike at the RBA's November 1st meeting: \"During this period of rising inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63005"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63006,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005\/revisions\/63006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}