{"id":63005,"date":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=63005"},"modified":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:05:14","slug":"rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%.<\/li>\n<li>The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending.<\/li>\n<li>However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are viewed as temporary, the policy statement says the housing market is strengthening and the labor market is &#8220;a little tight.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We believe the labor market is deteriorating despite the &#8220;pick-up in private demand&#8221; mentioned in the RBA policy statement. ANZ-Indeed job ads declined by 2.2% in October, bringing the annual change to -7.4%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png?resize=525%2C327&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads\" width=\"525\" height=\"327\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The decline emphasizes the surprise increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in September. The graph below compares job ads on an inverted scale (blue &#8211; LHS) against the unemployment rate (red &#8211; RHS).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads-u3.png?resize=525%2C331&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Job Ads &amp; Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"331\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in monthly hours worked is also slowing, and we expect the uptrend in unemployment to continue.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-hours.png?resize=525%2C306&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Aggregate Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"306\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Housing<\/h2>\n<p>Building approvals for private dwellings indicate resilience in the housing market, with the 3-month moving average (15.5K) above its 20-year moving average.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-approvals.png?resize=525%2C345&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Building Approvals\" width=\"525\" height=\"345\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Housing prices continue to reflect a market shortage due to high immigration.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Australia&#8217;s home value growth hits the fastest pace in over two years as national dwelling values surged 1.1% in October, marking the strongest monthly gain since June 2023 and pushing the annual growth rate to 6.1%. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cotality.com\/au\/insights\/articles\/housing-values-rising-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-two-years\">Cotality<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Australia faces a similar K-shaped economy to the US.<\/p>\n<p>Rising housing values and a buoyant stock market create a wealth effect, encouraging spending by wealthier consumers.<\/p>\n<p>However, the increase in demand has not translated into strong job growth. Unemployment is rising, and growth in monthly hours worked has slowed, but the RBA can&#8217;t do much while inflation is increasing.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/industry\/building-and-construction\/building-approvals-australia\/sep-2025\">Building Approvals<\/a><\/li>\n<li>RBA: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2025\/mr-25-31.html\">Monetary Policy Decision<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ANZ: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anz.com.au\/content\/dam\/anzcomau\/mediacentre\/pdfs\/consumerconfidence\/2025\/november\/ANZ_Indeed_Australian_Job_Ads_another_monthly_decline.pdf\">ANZ-Indeed Job Ads<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cotality: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cotality.com\/au\/insights\/articles\/housing-values-rising-at-the-fastest-pace-in-more-than-two-years\">Home Value Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending. However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation. The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. Although some inflationary pressures are &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,46,3761,10],"tags":[6654,7039,515,2362,3534],"class_list":["post-63005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-housing-economy","tag-anz-indeed-job-ads","tag-australian-home-value-index","tag-building-approvals","tag-monthly-hours-worked","tag-unemployment-rate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. The strong housing market creates a wealth effect that encourages spending. However, unemployment is rising, and the RBA can&#8217;t do much because of the upturn in inflation. The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-god","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":65186,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/06\/anz-job-ads\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":0},"title":"ANZ Job Ads","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Australian labor market is essentially flat, according to ANZ economist Aaron Luk: The labour market rebounded in May, with the unemployment rate easing to 4.4% and employment rising by a strong 40.3k. However, employment in April was revised to a 40.7k fall, leaving employment essentially flat over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: ANZ-Indeed Job Ads","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-06-aus-jobads.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-06-aus-jobads.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-06-aus-jobads.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-06-aus-jobads.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-06-aus-jobads.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/04\/rba-admits-its-mistake\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":1},"title":"RBA Admits Its Mistake","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The consumer price index jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally-adjusted 4.1%. The ASX 200 found support at 8800. The RBA increased its cash rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57188,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/03\/australia-unemployment-set-to-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Unemployment set to rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia faces a weakening jobs market in the medium term while falling real capital expenditure per employee warns of declining long-term growth. The DEWR\u2019s Leading Indicator of Employment [red below] last peaked in March 2022. Actual cyclical employment follows with a sixteen-month lag, commencing in July 2023. The Indicator\u2019s downtrend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-02-aus-employment-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61706,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/20\/rba-cautiously-lowers-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":3},"title":"RBA cautiously lowers rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The RBA cautiously lowered its cash rate target by 25 basis points The rate cut is in response to a low CPI print and a swathe of bearish economic data after the Trump tariff shock Caution is due to the low 4.1% unemployment rate, a strong 0.9% increase in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate Target","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-20-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37070,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/06\/australia-more-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":4},"title":"Australia: More rate hikes ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA hiked its target for the cash rate by 50 basis points today, to 2.35%, offering the following justification: .....Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. Global factors explain much of the increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-06-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":38428,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/01\/australia-rba-missed-opportunity\/","url_meta":{"origin":63005,"position":5},"title":"Australia: RBA missed opportunity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA announced a 25 basis point hike in their cash rate target, from 2.60% to 2.85%, lagging far behind CPI which grew by 7.3% in the 12 months to September. RBA Governor Phil Lowe's announcement: As is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high. Over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63005"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63006,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63005\/revisions\/63006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}