{"id":62974,"date":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62974"},"modified":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","slug":"inflation-quiet-before-the-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/27\/inflation-quiet-before-the-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation quiet before the storm"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September.<\/li>\n<li>However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI &amp; Core CPI - Annual\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Both headline and core CPI are affected by a sharp monthly fall in Owners Equivalent Rent (OER), which declined to 0.12% in September, compared to 0.38% in August. OER is a major component of CPI, accounting for 26% of headline and 33% of core CPI. (<a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2025\/10\/24\/massive-outlier-in-owners-equivalent-of-rent-pushed-down-cpi-core-cpi-core-services-cpi-something-went-awry-at-the-bls\/\">Wolf Richter<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>However, sticky CPI less Shelter, which excludes OER, also slowed to 3.0% for the twelve months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-cpi-core-sticky.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Core CPI, and Sticky CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ALICE Essentials Index also indicates that annual inflation slowed to 3.1%. ALICE (orange below) is produced by United Way as an alternative to CPI (blue) to highlight the impact of inflation on low-income earners.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-alice.png?resize=525%2C330&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ALICE Essentials Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"330\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Another alternative inflation measure is Truflation, which tracks up to 15 million online prices to calculate a daily-updated index. Prices are weighted more towards goods than services, which accounts for the lower readings compared to CPI.<\/p>\n<p>Truflation jumped to 2.48% on October 26, the highest since January. The index has increased by 1.9% since April 2, reflecting the impact of tariffs on goods prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-tru.png?resize=525%2C394&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Truflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Consumers are unconvinced that inflation is moderating, with last week&#8217;s University of Michigan survey indicating an average expected increase of 4.6% in the next twelve months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-uom-prices-1y.png?resize=525%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: 1-Year Inflation Expectations\" width=\"525\" height=\"364\" \/><\/p>\n<p>They aren&#8217;t buying the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;transitory&#8221; pitch either. Expected price increases over the next five years increased to 3.9% in October, almost double the Fed&#8217;s 2.0 percent target.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-uom-prices-5y.png?resize=525%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: 5-Year Inflation Expectations\" width=\"525\" height=\"364\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Consumer inflation is currently close to 3.0%. The University of Michigan survey indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 4.5% over the next twelve months and that inflation will be persistent rather than &#8220;transitory.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Consumer Surveys<\/a><\/li>\n<li>United for ALICE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unitedforalice.org\/essentials-index\">Essentials Index<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Truflation: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/ford-raises-projected-tariff-hit-results-shares-drop-3-2025-07-30\/\">Ford raises projected tariff hit to results, shares drop 3%<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Jim Bianco: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/biancoresearch\/status\/1982482357010497548\">Truflation<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wolf Richter: <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2025\/10\/24\/massive-outlier-in-owners-equivalent-of-rent-pushed-down-cpi-core-cpi-core-services-cpi-something-went-awry-at-the-bls\/\">Something Went Awry at the BLS<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September. However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months. According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure. Both headline and core CPI are affected &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/27\/inflation-quiet-before-the-storm\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Inflation quiet before the storm&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,34],"tags":[6453,818,854,6086,7023,6435],"class_list":["post-62974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-5-year-inflation-expectations","tag-core-cpi","tag-cpi","tag-sticky-cpi","tag-truflation","tag-university-of-michigan-1-year-inflation-expectations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation quiet before the storm - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation quiet before the storm - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September. However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months. According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gnI","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63405,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/19\/dont-believe-the-november-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":0},"title":"Don&#8217;t believe the November CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Core CPI growth slowed to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest CPI report. However, the report should not be trusted. Core CPI growth fell to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest BLS report, compared to 3.0% in September.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44643,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/13\/cpi-inflation-still-lurks\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":1},"title":"CPI: Inflation still lurks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI kicked up in August-September due to a surge in gasoline prices but these are excluded from core CPI which continues downwards. Monthly figures show not only CPI rising -- at an annualized rate of 4.75% -- but core as well, at a slightly lower annualized rate of 3.88%. Monthly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/16\/inflation-bounces-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":2},"title":"Inflation Bounces Back","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) declined to 6.0% for the 12 months to February but core CPI held steady at 5.5%. What is concerning that monthly core CPI is climbing, reaching an annualized rate of 5.4% (0.45% pm) in February. This echoes core PCE inflation -- the Fed's favorite measure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/14\/markets-stung-by-up-turn-in-monthly-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":3},"title":"Markets stung by up-turn in monthly CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 dropped to 4953 as markets reacted to an up-turn in monthly CPI inflation numbers. Reversal in the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) was especially sharp, retreating below support at 200, as investors re-assessed market risk. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.32%, breakout above resistance to indicate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62276,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/13\/sp-500-ignores-the-elephant-in-the-room\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 ignores the elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points CPI growth in July was not as bad as feared The S&P 500 rallied to a new high The US fiscal deficit grew to $1.6 trillion for the ten months to July and is expected to reach $1.95 trillion by September Headline CPI grew by 2.7% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58245,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/11\/cpi-not-too-hot-nor-too-cold\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":5},"title":"CPI not too hot nor too cold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Some market commentators have described the BLS September CPI report as \"hot,\" while others view CPI as on track to return to the Fed's 2.0% target in 2025. Treasury yields stiffened after last Friday's strong jobs report, but the advance failed to register alarm at the announcement and slowed considerably.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62974"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62978,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974\/revisions\/62978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}