{"id":62974,"date":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62974"},"modified":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T06:40:55","slug":"inflation-quiet-before-the-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/27\/inflation-quiet-before-the-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation quiet before the storm"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September.<\/li>\n<li>However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CPI &amp; Core CPI - Annual\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Both headline and core CPI are affected by a sharp monthly fall in Owners Equivalent Rent (OER), which declined to 0.12% in September, compared to 0.38% in August. OER is a major component of CPI, accounting for 26% of headline and 33% of core CPI. (<a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2025\/10\/24\/massive-outlier-in-owners-equivalent-of-rent-pushed-down-cpi-core-cpi-core-services-cpi-something-went-awry-at-the-bls\/\">Wolf Richter<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>However, sticky CPI less Shelter, which excludes OER, also slowed to 3.0% for the twelve months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-cpi-core-sticky.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Core CPI, and Sticky CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ALICE Essentials Index also indicates that annual inflation slowed to 3.1%. ALICE (orange below) is produced by United Way as an alternative to CPI (blue) to highlight the impact of inflation on low-income earners.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-alice.png?resize=525%2C330&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ALICE Essentials Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"330\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Another alternative inflation measure is Truflation, which tracks up to 15 million online prices to calculate a daily-updated index. Prices are weighted more towards goods than services, which accounts for the lower readings compared to CPI.<\/p>\n<p>Truflation jumped to 2.48% on October 26, the highest since January. The index has increased by 1.9% since April 2, reflecting the impact of tariffs on goods prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-tru.png?resize=525%2C394&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Truflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Consumers are unconvinced that inflation is moderating, with last week&#8217;s University of Michigan survey indicating an average expected increase of 4.6% in the next twelve months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-uom-prices-1y.png?resize=525%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: 1-Year Inflation Expectations\" width=\"525\" height=\"364\" \/><\/p>\n<p>They aren&#8217;t buying the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;transitory&#8221; pitch either. Expected price increases over the next five years increased to 3.9% in October, almost double the Fed&#8217;s 2.0 percent target.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-25-uom-prices-5y.png?resize=525%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"University of Michigan: 5-Year Inflation Expectations\" width=\"525\" height=\"364\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Consumer inflation is currently close to 3.0%. The University of Michigan survey indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 4.5% over the next twelve months and that inflation will be persistent rather than &#8220;transitory.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Consumer Surveys<\/a><\/li>\n<li>United for ALICE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unitedforalice.org\/essentials-index\">Essentials Index<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Truflation: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/ford-raises-projected-tariff-hit-results-shares-drop-3-2025-07-30\/\">Ford raises projected tariff hit to results, shares drop 3%<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Jim Bianco: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/biancoresearch\/status\/1982482357010497548\">Truflation<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wolf Richter: <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2025\/10\/24\/massive-outlier-in-owners-equivalent-of-rent-pushed-down-cpi-core-cpi-core-services-cpi-something-went-awry-at-the-bls\/\">Something Went Awry at the BLS<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September. However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months. According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure. Both headline and core CPI are affected &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/27\/inflation-quiet-before-the-storm\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Inflation quiet before the storm&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,34],"tags":[6453,818,854,6086,7023,6435],"class_list":["post-62974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-5-year-inflation-expectations","tag-core-cpi","tag-cpi","tag-sticky-cpi","tag-truflation","tag-university-of-michigan-1-year-inflation-expectations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation quiet before the storm - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation quiet before the storm - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Core CPI declined to 3.0% for the twelve months to September. However, consumers expect a strong upturn in inflation in the next twelve months. According to the delayed BLS report for September, core CPI decreased to 3.0% for the twelve months, matching the headline CPI figure. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gnI","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":63405,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/19\/dont-believe-the-november-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":0},"title":"Don&#8217;t believe the November CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Core CPI growth slowed to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest CPI report. However, the report should not be trusted. Core CPI growth fell to 2.6% for the 12 months to November, according to the latest BLS report, compared to 3.0% in September.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-18-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41261,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/16\/inflation-bounces-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":1},"title":"Inflation Bounces Back","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The consumer price index (CPI) declined to 6.0% for the 12 months to February but core CPI held steady at 5.5%. What is concerning that monthly core CPI is climbing, reaching an annualized rate of 5.4% (0.45% pm) in February. This echoes core PCE inflation -- the Fed's favorite measure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-14-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44643,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/13\/cpi-inflation-still-lurks\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":2},"title":"CPI: Inflation still lurks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CPI kicked up in August-September due to a surge in gasoline prices but these are excluded from core CPI which continues downwards. Monthly figures show not only CPI rising -- at an annualized rate of 4.75% -- but core as well, at a slightly lower annualized rate of 3.88%. Monthly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-13-cpi-core-annual.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/14\/markets-stung-by-up-turn-in-monthly-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":3},"title":"Markets stung by up-turn in monthly CPI","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 dropped to 4953 as markets reacted to an up-turn in monthly CPI inflation numbers. Reversal in the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) was especially sharp, retreating below support at 200, as investors re-assessed market risk. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.32%, breakout above resistance to indicate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-13-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62276,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/13\/sp-500-ignores-the-elephant-in-the-room\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 ignores the elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points CPI growth in July was not as bad as feared The S&P 500 rallied to a new high The US fiscal deficit grew to $1.6 trillion for the ten months to July and is expected to reach $1.95 trillion by September Headline CPI grew by 2.7% for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-12-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58245,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/11\/cpi-not-too-hot-nor-too-cold\/","url_meta":{"origin":62974,"position":5},"title":"CPI not too hot nor too cold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Some market commentators have described the BLS September CPI report as \"hot,\" while others view CPI as on track to return to the Fed's 2.0% target in 2025. Treasury yields stiffened after last Friday's strong jobs report, but the advance failed to register alarm at the announcement and slowed considerably.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-10-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62974"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62978,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62974\/revisions\/62978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}