{"id":62796,"date":"2025-10-18T06:15:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T06:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62796"},"modified":"2025-10-18T06:15:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T06:15:52","slug":"better-buckle-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/18\/better-buckle-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Better Buckle Up"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin broke through the band of support at 110K, warning of a correction.<\/li>\n<li>The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) spiked above the interest rate paid on reserve balances at the Fed, warning of a sharp contraction in liquidity in financial markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Better buckle up. Bitcoin serves as the canary in the coal mine for financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>A breach of the band of support between 108K and 110K warns of a correction that is likely to spread to major stock indices such as the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 1500 Regional Banks Index fell sharply this week as markets were spooked by three large defaults, which appear to involve fraudulent disclosure. A peak below the 50-day weighted moving average and a Trend Index peak below zero both warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-xpbc2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 1500 Regional Banks Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This week everyone is beared up on regional banks (again). Zions lost $50mn on a loan. A loan equal to 0.08% of their loan book. Yes, less than 0.1%. There have been a series of fraudulent loans uncovered and investors are worried these are signs of a bigger problem. The cockroach metaphor.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, it\u2019s scary for 3 fraudulent loans to come up all at once (Tricolor, First Brands and the Zions loan), but rather than it being a systemic problem is it possible that after the Tricolor loan went bad, every bank immediately began scrubbing every loan for irregularities and that is why these disclosures are coming up so quickly? On a practical basis it\u2019s hard to have a systemically high level of loans be fraudulent. Possible, but hard. Bank loan underwriting has been around for a long time, and it\u2019s pretty stringent, which is why private credit is doing so well. If you have an irregular profile and want a risky loan, go to a private credit fund, not a super regulated regional bank. (YWR)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Financial Markets<\/p>\n<p>The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) spiked to 15 basis points above the rate paid to commercial banks on their reserve balances at the Fed (IORB), indicating that large banks are reluctant to lend in the repo market despite the collateralized security.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-sofr-iorb.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) &amp; Interest on Reserve Balance (IORB)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>SOFR is the rate charged by banks on overnight borrowing secured by Treasury securities as collateral (repo).<\/p>\n<p>Banks usually are comfortable lending in the repo market, and the SOFR typically trades at a discount to IORB because of the preference for high-quality UST collateral. The SOFR spike above the IORB warns that the financial markets are under stress, with a sharp contraction in liquidity as lending dries up.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed will likely intervene, injecting liquidity to calm the markets, and a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 is now almost inevitable.<\/p>\n<h2>Gold<\/h2>\n<p>Gold hesitated at $4,300 per ounce and will likely retrace to test support. A correction that respects support at $4,000 would signal a fresh advance with a target of $4,600.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Be prepared for a volatile week ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The Bitcoin breach of support at 110K and a spike in the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) warn of a sharp contraction in liquidity. We expect a sharp fall in stocks unless the Fed intervenes to inject liquidity before markets open on Monday.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>YWR: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ywr.world\/p\/ywr-stupidly-bullish\">Stupidly Bullish<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Bitcoin broke through the band of support at 110K, warning of a correction. The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) spiked above the interest rate paid on reserve balances at the Fed, warning of a sharp contraction in liquidity in financial markets. Better buckle up. Bitcoin serves as the canary in the coal mine &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/18\/better-buckle-up\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Better Buckle Up&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5342,9,34],"tags":[5056,7012,7010,2117,5841,4237,7009,7011,7013],"class_list":["post-62796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cryptocurrency","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-first-brands","tag-interest-on-reserve-balances-iorb","tag-liquidity","tag-regional-banks","tag-repo-markets","tag-secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr","tag-tricolor","tag-zion-bancshares"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Better Buckle Up - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Better Buckle Up - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Bitcoin broke through the band of support at 110K, warning of a correction. The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) spiked above the interest rate paid on reserve balances at the Fed, warning of a sharp contraction in liquidity in financial markets. Better buckle up. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gkQ","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62870,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/22\/has-gold-reversed\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":0},"title":"Has Gold Reversed?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 22, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Gold retreated from resistance at $4,400 per ounce, briefly testing support at $4,000. Financial markets remain unsettled, with Bitcoin below 110K. Gold fell sharply on Monday as traders took profits after the recent massive surge. Tall daily bars and shallow retracements in the rapid ascent indicated robust demand\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-21-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-21-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-21-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63066,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/cass-freight-index-shipments-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":1},"title":"Cass Freight Shipments Index Plunges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Economic activity is contracting. The Cass Freight Shipments index signals a recession. Bitcoin warns of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity, which is likely to affect stock prices. The Cass Freight Shipments (seasonally adjusted) Index declined to 0.984, a level typically associated with recession. The decline confirms\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cass Freight Index - Shipments (SA)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-cass.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63130,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/20\/nvidia-vs-the-liquidity-squeeze\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":2},"title":"Nvidia vs. the liquidity squeeze","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points S&P 500 futures jumped after the Nvidia (NVDA) Q3 earnings surprise. Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street expectations and provided stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the fourth quarter. However, financial markets continue to warn of a liquidity contraction. Bitcoin continues to test support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Artificial Intelligence (AI)&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Artificial Intelligence (AI)","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/artificial-intelligence-ai\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-19-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-19-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-19-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63061,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/14\/stocks-fall-gold-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":3},"title":"Stocks fall, gold rises","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Bitcoin broke support at 100K, signaling that financial market liquidity is contracting. Major stock indices and ETFs declined as Fed officials hosed down prospects of a December rate cut. Copper and uranium miners are falling, indicating doubts over the AI infrastructure buildout. Gold rallied to $4,200 per ounce,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-13-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63010,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/05\/liquidity-contraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":4},"title":"Liquidity Contracts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The sharp fall in Bitcoin indicates a liquidity contraction in financial markets. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs CEOs warn that equity markets could be heading toward a drawdown. Remarks by leading bank CEOs at the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit in Hong Kong spurred a stock sell-off. \"We\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-04-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63416,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/23\/gold-and-silver-make-new-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":62796,"position":5},"title":"Gold and silver make new highs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 23, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Gold made a new high just short of $4,500 per ounce, while silver is testing resistance at $70. Bitcoin continues to warn of tight liquidity in financial markets. The S&P 500 index is re-testing resistance at its recent high of 6900. A breakout would offer a target of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-22-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62796"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62796\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62798,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62796\/revisions\/62798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}