{"id":62507,"date":"2025-10-01T07:58:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T07:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62507"},"modified":"2025-10-01T08:05:03","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T08:05:03","slug":"a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/","title":{"rendered":"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The US government shut down most operations on Wednesday as Congress failed to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling.<\/li>\n<li>Government shutdowns do not usually have a lasting effect on financial markets, but the fiercely divided House threatens a bitter standoff.<\/li>\n<li>Declining consumer confidence and further signs of a weakening labor market will likely contribute to a slowing economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Conference Board&#8217;s measure of consumer confidence declined to 94.2, remaining at 2020 pandemic levels since a steep plunge in April 2025.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png?resize=525%2C319&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board: Consumer Confidence\" width=\"525\" height=\"319\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Labor Market<\/h2>\n<p>Signs of a weakening jobs market are growing, with unemployment rising above job openings in August, for the first time since April 2021.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Job Openings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Temporary employment declined to 2.5 million. Low temporary hires indicate declining employer confidence in the economic outlook.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-temps.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temporary Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Declining average weekly hours worked warn of increased layoffs in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-weeklyhours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Weekly Hours\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A low quit rate of 1.9% reflects declining employee confidence in the job market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-quits.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Quit Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 continues to test resistance at 6700 despite concerns over the government shutdown. A breakout would offer a medium-term target of 6900.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-spx2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>High-yield spreads remain at a low 7.5%, indicating credit is readily available in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-hy.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Junk Bond Spreads\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is more tentative, having twice tested support at 110K. A breach of the support level would warn of a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-btc.png?resize=525%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"368\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields will likely retest resistance at 4.2% in the next few days, driven by uncertainty from the government shutdown. A breakout above 4.2% would offer a medium-term target of 4.4%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The US Dollar Index retreated below support at 98, but the outlook for lower interest rates remains uncertain.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold climbed to $3,868 per ounce, demand fueled by the increased uncertainty. A breakout above $3,900 would signal a test of our year-end target of $4,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver ripped through our target of $45 per ounce, with rising Trend Index troughs signaling strong buying pressure. A breakout above resistance at $47 would offer a target of $50.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Platinum has re-joined the party, with a breakout above $1,500 offering a target of $1,700.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-platinum.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Platinum\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Uncertainty over the US government shutdown has boosted demand for precious metals. Resolving partisan differences over government funding and extending healthcare benefits will likely prove difficult.<\/p>\n<p>Consumer confidence is low, and a weakening labor market warns of a slowing economy. An extended shutdown would further undermine spending, pushing the economy closer to a recession.<\/p>\n<p>Strong financial market liquidity supports high stock prices, but a Bitcoin retreat below 110K would warn of a contraction that would hurt equity markets.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Conference Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\/\">Consumer Confidence<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/us-government-begins-shut-down-most-operations-after-congress-fails-advance-2025-10-01\/\">US government shutdown begins as partisan division rules Washington<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The US government shut down most operations on Wednesday as Congress failed to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling. Government shutdowns do not usually have a lasting effect on financial markets, but the fiercely divided House threatens a bitter standoff. Declining consumer confidence and further signs of a weakening labor market &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,46,6,3761,9,34,35],"tags":[69,320,5056,794,1073,6472,4874,5299,3010,3204,3206,6994,3531],"class_list":["post-62507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-average-weekly-hours","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-consumer-confidence","tag-dollar-index","tag-high-yield-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-job-openings","tag-quit-rate","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-temporary-employment","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The US government shut down most operations on Wednesday as Congress failed to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling. Government shutdowns do not usually have a lasting effect on financial markets, but the fiercely divided House threatens a bitter standoff. 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Declining consumer confidence and further signs of a weakening labor market &hellip; Continue reading \"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2025-10-01T07:58:24+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-10-01T08:05:03+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence","datePublished":"2025-10-01T07:58:24+00:00","dateModified":"2025-10-01T08:05:03+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/"},"wordCount":437,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yield","Average Weekly Hours","Bitcoin (BTC)","consumer confidence","Dollar Index","High-Yield Corporate Bond Spreads","Job Openings","Quit Rate","S&amp;P 500","Spot Gold","Spot Silver","Temporary Employment","Unemployment"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","Cryptocurrency","Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","Fixed Income","GDP and Activity","Gold &amp; Precious Metals","US &amp; Canada","US Dollar Index"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/","name":"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png","datePublished":"2025-10-01T07:58:24+00:00","dateModified":"2025-10-01T08:05:03+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-30-confidence.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/01\/a-government-shutdown-declining-consumer-confidence\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A government shutdown + declining consumer confidence"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-ggb","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":52119,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/01\/bitcoin-canary-falls-off-its-perch\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":0},"title":"Bitcoin canary falls off its perch","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin broke support at $61K, warning of contracting liquidity in financial markets. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect is likely and would confirm a target of $52K. Commercial bank reserves at the Fed (blue below) have shrunk by almost $300 billion in the past two weeks,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-30-btc2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62171,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/22\/sp-500-weakens-and-gold-rallies\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500 weakens and gold rallies","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 22, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, supported by strong liquidity But declining Trend Index peaks warn of a retracement Consumer Confidence remains weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession Gold and silver rallied as the dollar weakened The S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/28\/greed-and-fear\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":2},"title":"Greed and fear","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 28, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Stocks are in a primary uptrend supported by strong financial market liquidity But consumers think a recession is likely in the next 12 months Bitcoin and gold also warn that investors are edgy The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) retraced last week but continues to display buyer support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-28-qqq.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-28-qqq.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-28-qqq.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62984,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/30\/fed-cut-but-no-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":3},"title":"Fed cut, but no rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 30, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed cut its funds rate target by 25 basis points and will end QT on December 1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell doused expectations for a further rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, causing rates to drift higher. ADP weekly data indicates that private sector employment is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Weekly Private Sector Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":44018,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/09\/confirmation-bias\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":4},"title":"More delay until recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"We have been barraged lately with opinions from respected market commentators -- like David Rosenberg and Steph Pomboy (Macro Mavens) -- warning of an imminent recession. But the data tells us otherwise. Weekly initial claims are still falling. Continued claims for unemployment are also trending lower. The Coincident Index refuses\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Initial Claims","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-08-initialclaims.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":49825,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/12\/a-brief-market-pause-but-crude-oil-could-spoil-the-party\/","url_meta":{"origin":62507,"position":5},"title":"A brief market pause but crude oil could spoil the party","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 5050. Trend Index troughs high above zero signal strong buying pressure but the latest, lower peak warns of a correction. 10-Year Treasury yields are retracing to test the latest ST resistance at 4.10%. Respect would indicate another decline, with a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62507"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62510,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62507\/revisions\/62510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}