{"id":6244,"date":"2012-11-21T23:34:21","date_gmt":"2012-11-22T04:34:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6244"},"modified":"2012-11-21T23:34:21","modified_gmt":"2012-11-22T04:34:21","slug":"sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/21\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; macrobusiness.com.au"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <em>Houses and Holes<\/em> on November 22, 2012<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" height=\"204\" width=\"300\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"One-Trick Pony\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/one-trick-pony-300x204.jpg?resize=300%2C204\" \/><\/p>\n<p>London-based Kyran Curry, the long-time primary credit analyst for Australia at S&amp;P, is back and the news is getting worse. From the <a title=\"AFR\" href=\"http:\/\/afr.com\/p\/national\/banks_make_australia_vulnerable_Myt8oYVgotjJEURl9F91HM\" target=\"_blank\">AFR<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ccccff;\"><p>\u201cThe banks are highly indebted, they\u2019re highly leveraged, they are the main vehicle Australia uses to fund its current account deficit\u2026Australia has, as we see it, got some credit metrics that are right off the scale when it comes to assessing Australia\u2019s external position&#8230;.It\u2019s got high levels of liabilities, it\u2019s got very weak external liquidity and that basically means the banks are highly indebted compared to their peers&#8230;.They\u2019re benefiting from a safe haven at the moment \u2013 nonetheless investor sentiment can turn very quickly\u2026We just worry that at some point, the people who are funding the Australian banks may decide that enough is enough and may begin to lose confidence in the bank\u2019s ability to roll over their debt&#8230;.That would come through a weakening in Australia\u2019s major trading partners flowing through to a dramatic weakening in Australia\u2019s fiscal position.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Curry said this could be a two or three year scenario. But he added:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ccccff;\"><p>\u201cAnything that weighs on the ability of Australia to bring forward new energy projects and that weighs on its export growth potential, that\u2019s something that would put pressure on the rating. Australia is looking increasingly like a one-trick pony.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Regular readers will note that S&amp;P has pretty much captured my entire \u2018peak Australia\u2019 thesis. It is simultaneously ripping aside the veil of invisopower that regulators have dispersed around the banks and seeing for it is the singularly backward macroeconomic strategy of embracing Dutch disease. My two great fears.<\/p>\n<p>The last line is the worst. I am of the view that LNG will rationalise \u2013 the current set of projects that is \u2013 not the fictitious pipeline. That means there is a risk that this is not a two or three scenario at all. Which does offer an answer to the question: why is S&amp;P ramping its warnings now?<\/p>\n<p>Canberra must immediately dispatch to Beijing a high level delegation to demand further stimulus. Perhaps a high-speed rail link from Beijing to the Bush Capital? That way, when they\u2019re ready, the Chinese can relax in comfort on the way down to buy our banks.<\/p>\n<p>Reproduced with thanks to <a title=\"Macrobusiness: Houses and Holes\" href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2012\/11\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony\/\" target=\"_blank\">Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Houses and Holes on November 22, 2012 London-based Kyran Curry, the long-time primary credit analyst for Australia at S&amp;P, is back and the news is getting worse. From the AFR: \u201cThe banks are highly indebted, they\u2019re highly leveraged, they are the main vehicle Australia uses to fund its current account deficit\u2026Australia has, as we &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/21\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; macrobusiness.com.au&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,5],"tags":[290,381,2089,2550],"class_list":["post-6244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-economy","tag-australia","tag-banks","tag-leverage","tag-offshore-borrowing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Houses and Holes on November 22, 2012 London-based Kyran Curry, the long-time primary credit analyst for Australia at S&amp;P, is back and the news is getting worse. From the AFR: \u201cThe banks are highly indebted, they\u2019re highly leveraged, they are the main vehicle Australia uses to fund its current account deficit\u2026Australia has, as we &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; macrobusiness.com.au&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/21\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-22T04:34:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/one-trick-pony-300x204.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/21\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/21\/sp-declares-australia-a-one-trick-pony-macrobusiness-com-au\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P declares Australia a \u201cone trick pony\u201d &#124; 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1CI","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":15463,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/19\/moodys-downgrades-australian-bank-credit-ratings\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":0},"title":"Moody&#8217;s downgrades Australian bank credit ratings","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Mathew Dunckley and Clancy Yeates at SMH: Credit rating agency Moody's has downgraded a dozen Australian banks, including the big four, citing increased risks in the nation's increasingly indebted households. Moody's stripped the big four banks - the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank of Australia\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2324,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/23\/the-credit-crunch-is-coming-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":1},"title":"The credit crunch is coming &#8211; macrobusiness.com.au","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 23, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The SMH has [a] very important story this morning on the funding crisis that is bearing down on the major banks: Australian banks are preparing for a potential freeze in global funding markets as Europe\u2019s worsening stresses threaten to send the world\u2019s financial markets into a tailspin. Renewed funding pressures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16340,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/09\/12-charts-on-the-australian-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":2},"title":"12 Charts on the Australian economy","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian GDP grew at a robust 3.1% for the year ended 31 March 2018 but a look at the broader economy shows little to cheer about. Wages growth is slowing, with the Wage Price Index falling sharply. Falling growth in disposable income is holding back consumption (e.g. retail spending) and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6053,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":3},"title":"Australia: Hard or soft landing?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Browsing the latest charts from the RBA. Despite record low 10-year bond yields..... Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time. After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade. Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2270,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/22\/cut-in-europe-bank-lending-has-wide-impact-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":4},"title":"Cut in Europe Bank Lending Has Wide Impact &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 22, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"European banks in recent years dramatically boosted lending to emerging markets and were among the biggest cross-border lenders in these countries. Their retreat has tightened credit in industries\u2014from aircraft to media to mining \u2014 squeezing economies already feeling the effects of reduced demand from the developed world for their exports....\"We're\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15610,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/20\/australia-apra-capitulates-to-big-four-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":6244,"position":5},"title":"Australia: APRA capitulates to Big Four banks","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 20, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Clancy Yeates at The Age: Quelling investor fears over moves to strengthen the financial system, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on Wednesday said major banks would have until 2020 to increase their levels of top-tier capital by about 1 percentage point, to 10.5 per cent. The target was much\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6244\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}