{"id":62439,"date":"2025-09-13T02:46:44","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T02:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62439"},"modified":"2025-09-13T03:08:56","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T03:08:56","slug":"asx-leading-indicators-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/13\/asx-leading-indicators-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Forward Orders Lift ASX to Mild Bull Signal"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the gauge on the right reflects stock market valuation. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing<\/strong>. We do not recommend selling stocks because the market valuation is high, but we would advise investors to be circumspect about adding new positions without careful investigation of the underlying value.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator jumped to 66%, compared to 56% last week, with NAB forward orders crossing to a risk-on signal.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Five of six indicators from Australia and China now indicate risk-on, while the ASX 200 relative to Gold (in AUD) remains risk-off. The index includes a 40% weighting for the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which is unchanged.<\/p>\n

NAB forward orders for Australia increased to 1.0 in August from 0 in the preceding two months, lifting the 3-month moving average above zero and signaling risk-on for the first time since October 2023.<\/p>\n

\"Australia:<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing increased to 91.37 percent, compared to a high of 92.23 percent four weeks ago and a low of 67.85 percent in April.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The All Ordinaries dividend yield fell to 3.12%, a level typical of recessions like 1987 and 2020, when falling earnings force dividend cuts. Dividends are reasonably healthy at present, suggesting that valuations are extreme.<\/p>\n

\"All<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator has lifted to 66%, signaling a mild bull market. However, extreme valuations increase the long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n