{"id":62368,"date":"2025-09-06T11:24:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-06T11:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62368"},"modified":"2025-09-07T22:44:56","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T22:44:56","slug":"weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/06\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after a weak jobs report.<\/li>\n<li>Falling crude oil prices also ease inflationary pressure.<\/li>\n<li>Long-term Treasury yields fall, anticipating a rate cut.<\/li>\n<li>The dollar weakened as yields softened, while gold soared to a new high of $3,600 per ounce.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The August labor report disappointed with a low 22,000 job growth compared to an expected 75,000. Another June data revision saw jobs contract by 13,000, after initial reported gains of 147,000 were revised down to 14,000 last month.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-jobs2.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in total weekly hours worked came to a complete halt in August, with annual growth falling to 0.7%. Real GDP growth will likely follow.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The uptrend in continued claims confirms the August rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-claims-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The unemployment level ( 7.4m ) now exceeds job openings ( 7.2m ), but only by 200K.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Job Openings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Temporary jobs fell to 2.5 million, a level typically seen during recessions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-temp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temporary Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Layoffs and discharges are in an uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-layoffs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Layoffs &amp; Discharges Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The 2.0% quit rate indicates that employees are no longer confident in finding new jobs.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-quits.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Quit Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Average hourly earnings growth slowed to an annualized rate of 3.3% in August, but year\/year growth was steady at 3.9%, still indicating a balanced labor market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-wages.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Crude Oil<\/h2>\n<blockquote><p>OPEC+ has injected a lot of downside pricing risk into the oil markets this week, fueling speculation that the second wave of voluntary cuts totaling 1.65 million b\/d could be unwound much quicker than previously expected. According to news reports, Saudi Arabia is interested in pushing ahead with the unwinding during the September 7 meeting, citing the need to regain market share.\u00a0(<a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Oil-Prices\/OPEC-Dials-Up-Downside-Risk-as-Saudis-Eye-Further-Output-Hikes.html\">OilPrice.com<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The move has the potential to create a massive oversupply. Brent crude fell to $65.50 per barrel on Friday, but if the Saudis succeed, expect a test of support at $60. Falling crude prices would squeeze shale producer margins, causing a drop in US production.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-brent.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Lower energy prices would ease inflationary pressures in the US, allowing more room for Fed rate cuts.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"clickthrough\">ISM Services<\/h2>\n<p>The ISM services PMI improved to 52% in August, indicating expansion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-ism-services-pmi.png?resize=525%2C311&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"311\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New orders jumped to 56%, signaling an improving outlook.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-ism-services-neworders.png?resize=525%2C266&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services New Orders\" width=\"525\" height=\"266\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, services employment signals contraction, confirming the weak labor report.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-ism-services-jobs.png?resize=525%2C266&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"266\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A steep 69.2% for the prices sub-index also warns of strong inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-ism-services-prices.png?resize=525%2C267&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ISM Services Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"267\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Contracting employment and rising prices in the large services sector warn of stagflation. We expect the Fed to cut in September, but then pause to see how this affects prices.<\/p>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>A weak labor report is a bearish sign for stocks despite the prospect of a Fed rate cut. A reversal of the S&amp;P 500 below support at 6400 would warn of a correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to test support at 45,000. Respect of support would confirm another advance. A breach is less likely, but would signal a test of 44,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>The Chicago Fed Index retreated to -0.526, warning that financial conditions are tightening.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Tighter financial conditions are also highlighted by a decline in bank reserves to below $3.2 trillion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is testing support at 110K. A breach would warn of a swing to risk-off in financial markets, which would be bearish for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-btc.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields plunged to 4.09%, heading for a test of long-term support at 4.0% as speculators pile into bonds ahead of the expected September rate cut. However, we have <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/30\/tariffs-overruled-as-gold-and-silver-soar\/\">warned<\/a> of the risk that long-term yields rise in response to a Fed cut \u2014 as in September last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The dollar weakened in response to the poor jobs report, anticipating falling interest rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold surged to a new high at $3,600 per ounce before closing at $3,587. Expect another test of support at $3,500, but respect will likely confirm another advance \u2014 and our year-end target of $4,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is retracing to test support at $40, but respect will likely confirm another advance and a target of $44.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Weak jobs growth in August warns that economic growth is slowing, but the ISM services report warns of strong price pressures in the services sector. We expect a Fed rate cut in September but then a pause as the Fed remains wary of stagflation, with low growth and rising prices.<\/p>\n<p>We expect the dollar to weaken in response to rate cuts, with gold and silver soaring to new highs.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed should take care to avoid a repeat of last September, when Fed rate cuts sparked a sell-off in long-term Treasuries, signaling the bond market&#8217;s displeasure with monetary and fiscal policy. We believe they will aim for a gradual decline, with a pause after the September cut to assess the impact of tariffs and a slowing economy on prices.<\/p>\n<p>A Saudi move to increase crude oil production would likely drive Brent crude to $60 per barrel or below, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content_block\" id=\"custom_post_widget-44827\"><p><!-- AD START --><\/p>\n<div id=\"pi-ad\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save 50% on an Annual Subscription.<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n<div><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Colin Twiggs\u2019 newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013 including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save&nbsp;50% on a new annual subscription to Market Analysis (normal price: $195 AUD or $145 USD). <span style=\"\">This subscription may be tax deductible &#8211; ask your accountant.<\/span> <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><span style=\"\"><span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">Offer valid until<\/span> midnight <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">September 15, 2025<\/span>. <span style=\"white-space:nowrap;\">New subscribers only.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- AD END --><\/p>\n<p><!--\nGeneral Ad:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">This may be the best investment you make this year.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-content\">\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-logo\" align=\"center\">\n\n\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/pan\/images\/patient-investor\/patient-investor-logo-2020-10-17.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div>the patient investor<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Take advantage of our <u>$1 special<\/u>. New subscribers only. <\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\nBlackFriday2023:\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-hd\">Save $95\u00a0AUD (or $70 USD) on a Market Analysis subscription.<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div id=\"pi-ad-offer\" align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-3\/\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"\">Market Analysis newsletter offers weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2013\u00a0including macro trends, key sectors, energy and precious metals.<\/span><span style=\"\">Save on a new Market Analysis annual subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer extended until December 4, 2023<\/span>.<\/span><span id=\"pi-ad-button\">Save Now &gt;<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<span style=\"\">Take advantage of our exclusive <span style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#215468;\">Black Friday special<\/span>: save\u00a0$95 ($70\u00a0USD) on a new subscription. <span class=\"nowrap\">Offer expires November 24, 2023<\/span>.<\/span>\n--><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>OilPrice.com: <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Oil-Prices\/OPEC-Dials-Up-Downside-Risk-as-Saudis-Eye-Further-Output-Hikes.html\">OPEC+ Dials Up Downside Risk as Saudis Eye Further Output Hikes<\/a><\/li>\n<li>BEA: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2025\/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-june-2025\">US International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Institute for Supply Management: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/\">ISM Report on Business<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Consumer Surveys<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/us-trade-gap-skids-2-year-low-tariffs-exert-pressure-service-sector-2025-08-05\/\">US trade gap skids to 2-year low; tariffs exert pressure on service sector<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/ford-raises-projected-tariff-hit-results-shares-drop-3-2025-07-30\/\">Ford raises projected tariff hit to results, shares drop 3%<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after a weak jobs report. Falling crude oil prices also ease inflationary pressure. Long-term Treasury yields fall, anticipating a rate cut. The dollar weakened as yields softened, while gold soared to a new high of $3,600 per ounce. The August labor report disappointed with &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/06\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,3761,34],"tags":[69,6256,314,5056,495,6622,6273,4412,1073,1113,1227,6457,6458,6459,5855,4874,5718,6041,5299,2870,3010,3204,3206,3531,3534],"class_list":["post-62368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-aggregate-weekly-hours-worked","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-brent-crude","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-commercial-bank-reserves-at-the-fed","tag-continued-claims","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-employment","tag-ism-services-employment","tag-ism-services-new-orders","tag-ism-services-prices","tag-ism-services-pmi","tag-job-openings","tag-labor-market","tag-layoffs-discharges","tag-quit-rate","tag-real-gdp","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-unemployment","tag-unemployment-rate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after a weak jobs report. Falling crude oil prices also ease inflationary pressure. Long-term Treasury yields fall, anticipating a rate cut. The dollar weakened as yields softened, while gold soared to a new high of $3,600 per ounce. The August labor report disappointed with &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/06\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-06T11:24:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-07T22:44:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-05-jobs2.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/06\\\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/06\\\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-06T11:24:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-07T22:44:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/06\\\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":853,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/06\\\/weak-jobs-and-falling-crude-september-rate-cut\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2025\\\/2025-09-05-jobs2.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Aggregate Weekly Hours Worked\",\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Bitcoin (BTC)\",\"Brent crude\",\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\",\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\",\"Continued Claims\",\"Dollar Index\",\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\",\"Employment\",\"ISM Services - Employment\",\"ISM Services - New Orders\",\"ISM Services - Prices\",\"ISM Services PMI\",\"Job Openings\",\"Labor Market\",\"Layoffs &amp; 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Stocks continued unfazed, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.0%, while precious metals held steady near previous highs. Crude rallied on the threat to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59700,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/07\/easy-monetary-conditions-fail-to-lift-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":62368,"position":3},"title":"Easy monetary conditions fail to lift stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are advancing on a narrow front despite easy monetary conditions in financial markets. Treasury yields are falling, which should be bullish for precious metals. However, robust economic and labor market data will likely increase the Fed's reluctance to continue cutting rates. Stocks The S&P 500 edged higher, but the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/04\/the-real-risk-of-a-fed-rate-cut\/","url_meta":{"origin":62368,"position":4},"title":"The real risk of a Fed rate cut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points ADP National Employment Report estimates that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November. Traders are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 10. ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI shows inflation is not yet under control. A rate cut will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Private Sector Jobs","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-12-03-adp-national.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/04\/bear-market-bites\/","url_meta":{"origin":62368,"position":5},"title":"The bear market bites","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Stocks plunged in reaction to Donald Trump's new \"reciprocal\" tariffs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support levels, confirming the bear market. Declining 10-year Treasury yields warn of a recession. The ISM services PMI warns of slowing growth and rising unemployment. Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-03-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-03-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-03-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62368"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62368\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62401,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62368\/revisions\/62401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}