{"id":62365,"date":"2025-09-06T06:17:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-06T06:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62365"},"modified":"2025-09-06T06:17:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T06:17:00","slug":"us-leading-indicators-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/06\/us-leading-indicators-5\/","title":{"rendered":"US Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market valuation levels.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

Employment in cyclical sectors \u2014 Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation, and Warehousing \u2014 eased to 27.76 million from a high of 27.82 million in February, but is far above the 300K fall that would warn of a recession.<\/p>\n

\"Employment<\/p>\n

The 12-month average of heavy truck sales fell to 38.0K units in August, reflecting slower activity in the broad economy. A fall of more than 10% signals risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing increased slightly to 97.97, close to the high of 97.98 percent from two weeks ago, and well above the April low of 95.04 percent. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Robert Shiller’s CAPE compares the S&P 500 index to the preceding 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. Except for the Dotcom bubble in 2000, the current CAPE value of 38.36 is higher than at any time in the past 120 years.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme pricing increases the long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n