{"id":62339,"date":"2025-08-30T09:03:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T09:03:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62339"},"modified":"2025-09-06T06:02:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T06:02:49","slug":"us-leading-indicators-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/30\/us-leading-indicators-4\/","title":{"rendered":"US Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.56, indicating easy monetary conditions that support stocks and bonds.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

However, heavy truck sales are declining, with the 12-month average falling to 38.5K units, reflecting slowing transport activity in the broader economy.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to 97.96 from a new high of 97.98 percent last week, and a low of 95.04 percent in April. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme pricing increases the long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n