{"id":62337,"date":"2025-08-30T08:53:31","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T08:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62337"},"modified":"2025-08-30T08:53:31","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T08:53:31","slug":"asx-leading-indicators-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/30\/asx-leading-indicators-3\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, down from 64% four weeks ago. The last decline was due to a fall in the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting in the ASX index.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Four of six indicators from Australia and China indicate risk-on, while the remaining two \u2014 NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 relative to Gold (in AUD) \u2014 are risk-off.<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing increased slightly to 90.92, compared to a high of 92.23 percent two weeks ago and a low of 67.85 in April.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator warns of a bear market, and extreme valuations increase the long-term risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n