{"id":62313,"date":"2025-08-23T08:58:43","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T08:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62313"},"modified":"2025-08-23T08:58:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T08:58:43","slug":"asx-leading-indicators-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/23\/asx-leading-indicators-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, down from 64% three weeks ago. The last decline was due to a fall in the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting in the ASX index.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Four of six indicators from Australia and China indicate risk-on, with the remaining two \u2014 NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 relative to Gold (in AUD) \u2014 signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) closed at a new high above 9750, a strong bull market signal for stocks.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing eased to 90.86, from a high of 92.23 percent last week and a low of 67.85 in April.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator warns of a bear market, while valuations are now extreme, increasing the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n