{"id":62284,"date":"2025-08-16T04:47:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-16T04:47:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62284"},"modified":"2025-08-16T04:47:49","modified_gmt":"2025-08-16T04:47:49","slug":"asx-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/16\/asx-leading-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fleximage\">\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-asx-stock-value-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Pricing Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n<h2>Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n<p>The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 56%, down from 64% two weeks ago. The latest decline was due to a fall in the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting in the ASX index.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-asx-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C220&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"220\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Two of six indicators from Australia and China signal risk-off: NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 relative to Gold (in AUD).<\/p>\n<p>Forward orders are improving, but the 3-month moving average remains below zero, signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-aus-fwdorders.png?resize=525%2C343&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"NAB Forward Orders\" width=\"525\" height=\"343\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200\/Gold crossed above its 50-week weighted moving average this week, but has not yet completed a higher trough followed by a new high, signaling a reversal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-xjo-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\/Gold in AUD\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n<p>ASX stock pricing increased to a new high of 92.23 percent from a low of 67.85 in April.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-asx-stock-value.png?resize=525%2C265&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX Stock Market Value Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"265\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: #eef; padding: 0.25em;\">We use z-scores to measure each indicator&#8217;s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n<p>Forward price-earnings (FPE) for the ASX 20, calculated using a 20% trimmed mean, climbed to a new high of 23.93.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-asx-fpe.png?resize=473%2C283&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 20 Forward PE, 20% Trimmed Mean\" width=\"473\" height=\"283\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The ASX bull-bear indicator warns of a bear market, while valuations are now extreme, increasing the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>NAB Monthly Business Survey: <a href=\"https:\/\/business.nab.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/NAB-Monthly-Business-Survey-April-2025-.pdf\">April 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/industry\/building-and-construction\/building-approvals-australia\/latest-release\">Private Dwelling Approvals<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Trading Economics: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/china\/business-confidence\">China Business Indicators<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Morningstar: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com.au\/investments\/security\/index\/xao\/portfolio\">ASX 20 Statistics<\/a><\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P Global Indices: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/indices\/equity\/all-ordinaries\/#overview\">All Ordinaries Statistics<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Market Index: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketindex.com.au\/statistics\">ASX Statistics<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national-accounts\/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product\/latest-release\">National Accounts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ASX: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/about\/market-statistics\/historical-market-statistics\">Historical Market Statistics<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 56%, down from 64% two weeks ago. The latest decline was due to a fall in the US Bull\/Bear indicator, which has a 40% &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/16\/asx-leading-indicators\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX Leading Indicators&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[6966,6965,6931,6797,6798,6536],"class_list":["post-62284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","tag-20-trimmed-mean","tag-asx-20-forward-pe","tag-asx-200-gold-in-aud","tag-asx-bull-bear-market-indicator","tag-asx-stock-market-value-indicator","tag-nab-forward-orders"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX Leading Indicators - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX Leading Indicators - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. 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Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-12-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-12-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-12-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61965,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/14\/asx-market-leading-indicators-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":62284,"position":1},"title":"ASX Market Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 14, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator at 64% reflects a mild bull market. Four out of six indicators from Australia and China (our largest trading partner) signal risk-on. These have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61681,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/asx-weekly-leading-indicators\/","url_meta":{"origin":62284,"position":2},"title":"ASX Weekly Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 54%, signaling a mild bear market. Three of six indicators from Australia and China (our largest trading partner) signal risk-off. These\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63063,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/15\/asx-improves-to-mild-bull-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":62284,"position":3},"title":"ASX Improves to Mild Bull Market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-14-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/18\/asx-shifts-to-bear\/","url_meta":{"origin":62284,"position":4},"title":"ASX Swings to Bear","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the indicator on the right reflects stock market valuation. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-aus-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-aus-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-17-aus-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62119,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/12\/asx-market-leading-indicators-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":62284,"position":5},"title":"ASX Market Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 54%, after declining from 64% two weeks ago. Three of six indicators from Australia and China signal risk-off, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62284"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62285,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62284\/revisions\/62285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}