{"id":62182,"date":"2025-07-26T03:47:05","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T03:47:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62182"},"modified":"2025-07-26T03:59:50","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T03:59:50","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/26\/us-market-leading-indicators-10\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.55, with expanding liquidity supporting financial markets.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing climbed to 97.50 percent, compared to a low of 95.04 percent in April and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The Shiller CAPE ratio compares the current S&P 500 index value to 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. The CAPE ratio of 38.33 is the highest outside of the Dotcom bubble in 2000.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The forward price-earnings ratio is also at an extreme reading of 24.5, compared to the fifty-year average of 16.3.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We are bordering on a bear market. The bull-bear indicator is still at 60%, but extreme stock pricing increases the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n